NorthHillsWx

Marvelous March > Fabulous February

I have full faith march will save this winter

Love some 80’s without humidity

Not liking the 18z cold push into the Mississippi valley. That hasn’t worked here

My point wasn’t that this isn’t a good climo period for snow, it was that you need anomalous cold to snow late in February. All those years with big storms you mention brought that at the right time. It seems we get closer and it keeps warming up soon as we get inside 15 days. Maybe I’m wrong but until we get a sustained cold signal in New England with this pattern, it will just result in cold rain south of the mid Atlantic

Yep they’re up here too

The split flow looks great, blocking looks great, but you know what’s still the problem we’re going to have? There’s no real cold air. Even that fantasy storm last night was a product of rates and not there being a good arctic high in the source region. Until proven otherwise, it looks to me like a mid Atlantic setup where there might be just enough cold air north of us. We might get some storms but I’m doubtful the cold will be enough. We’re reaching the part of our climo where we need anomalous cold for frozen and that isn’t showing up

Worst winters in my lifetime: 1) Winter 2023-4 2) Winter 2022-3 3) Winter 2020-1 Notice a trend???

2024: +TBD/0.0” I’m calling it. Jokes aside, we’re going to have to see Ops start to pick up on something soon or this period is cooked. Maybe we get BN but it takes much more than that to snow and it’s either going to start to be sniffed out or we’re onto spring (most probably already are)

Well, 60’s and rain as we move into the heart of our good winter weather pattern on the 18th. At least all the blooming trees and flowers from next week will be well-watered

Who’s ready for another round of 12z snowless model mayhem?

The issue here is “tons of arctic air” that never made it over the mountains. Nashville over there sitting below 0 with 6” of snow and stuck below freezing for a week while we made it to 18 one night. We suck so much

Just so everyone remembers the last time things looked positive for us. Still remember reading this discussion, it had been below freezing several days, we had a dusting of snow from that morning, and a storm we thought we’d lost had come back to life over the previous 12 hours. That was a good day

I’ve honestly forgotten what a snowfall looks like. Only good news is at least we’ve dried out in central NC. Last few systems largely missed us so it’s just been moderately cold and warm with absolutely nothing to track

Thankfully it doesn’t agree with its ensemble, because the 6z GFS says “what cold air?” When it’s above freezing in our source region, we’re cooked regardless if our temps are slightly below normal. Ensemble still relatively unchanged, however

Based on the forum today, I’d say most have moved to the 5th stage @eyewall

That 10-12th period has the potential to challenge some record warmth. That’s a beast of a HP over the Bahamas and as of now it looks like there will be a lot of sun during that hard southerly flow. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some temps close to 80 with that look

That chart is the most accurate thing on this board. This year I skipped 3 and 4 and jumped straight to 5 when it became apparent we were going to punt a month, a full month out, and rely solely on weeklies, mjo, and analogs for hope.

2 year going on 3 years snowless if that week doesn’t produce, 6 years since 4”+ on a season. I know it’s the south but these are sobering numbers even for here. Boston and NYC are not doing much better this year as there have been no east coast storms. And this is during a strong El Niño. Some posters on here have been GREAT at posting and predicting LR pattern and that is great that there is a good pattern shaping up but holy moly, we’re 17 days away and have just burnt all of December-January and know we’re burning over half of February with 4 cold days total to show for it. This may somehow be worse than last year bc at least Enso brought our expectations up

Per ensemble guidance, the cold is delayed a bit till around the 17th. Will be interesting to watch to see if that timeframe holds as we get closer. Realistically that gives us about a week window to score before we really are fighting an uphill battle against climo. I know I know we’ve had snowstorms around march in the past, it’s just been so long I don’t even remember one so that’s not realistic to expect one. 17th-25th has my attention as our last gasp chance. Didn’t think that’s where we’d be on February 1st but that’s where we are

If this upcoming ~2 weeks pattern doesn’t produce outside the mountains/foothills somewhere, I think there will be some serious questioning as to whether or not it can snow here anymore

Too bad there isn’t a breath of cold air with this clipper. It’s really over performing qpf. Quarter inch and counting

Being in the middle of the 4 week punt period is like being stuck in line at the DMV on your lunch break with a 1 pm important meeting coming up

We’re back to thoughts and prayers status for this winter. I get it I agree, pattern looks great on LR. But it’s about to be mid February when it does and we know what happens here with climo and everything else. When it was apparent we’d be punting 4 weeks I think most understood the writing was on the wall

Neutral. Not really a major change one way or another. Maybe if you squint but just noise to me