NorthHillsWx

40 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Recon descending into Franklin now. Should be a helpful mission for understanding structure and getting data into the guidance. 

As expected the circulation appears extremely elongated. It’s possible it may have opened up. Let’s see if they find a consolidated center this pass

Comparison between the basins:

EPAC: 8 storms, ACE 104

N Atlantic: 8 storms, ACE 17

I think a 50-60kt landfall is what I’d be expecting at this time based off current trends 

Franklin’s circulation seems extremely elongated on visible imagery this morning. I wonder if we’ll get recon today to examine the structure. Definitely getting blasted by shear but man this storm has some impressive convective bursts continuing 

I wonder if all this activity, though weak, may work to mix the ocean up and decrease some of the crazy hot SST anomalies we’ve had to this point. A large % of the basin is covered in Clouds and rain from all of these storms 

I mean a bunch of one day minimal TS is not going to catch anyone’s attention but Gert still being a TS surprises me. The center is way removed from the convection and looks to be completely falling apart under franklins outflow and though there might be a few 35kt winds in that thunderstorm it just doesn’t look like the definition of a tropical cyclone to me. The storms on top of the LLC aren’t even associated to Gert, it is that sheared 

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Emily was legit. Gert was name worthy for like 14 minutes. 

Im not even sure Gert was more than a single thunderstorm gust. I woke up and saw Gert this morning and looked at the satellite and immediately became confused as to what actually constituted Gert bc whatever was there last night was already completely gone. Never have I missed the formation and death of a named storm while I slept 

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 -With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/1/0. 

3-0-0. There has not been a hurricane yet. Franklin may try 

Still no FFW with the event yet 

2 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Beastmode

Once again, historic rainfall over the “perma” drought. Get away from the runoff areas and waterways and let this storm fix 15 years of drought in a few days. This is the absolute best thing that could have happened for the southwest, I’m tired of everyone putting a negative spin on something that (when the rain ends) will be the best thing that’s happened in a decade to help the local environment 

For years they’ve filled the news with pictures of lake Mead evaporating and this could possibly fill the lake up. Sounds like a win to me!

45 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m not sure, but I spoke to a friend from LA and he said he’s hopeful this’ll act to suppress fire season. 

I know. I’m reading on here and it’s like doom and gloom with how “bad” it’s gonna be in the SW and I’m just thinking how people are worried that “a remnant tropical system hitting the most drought stricken part of the country over the last decade” is a bad thing… Like how was the drought going to end? Endless days of light rain in the southwest? This seems like the absolute best scenario possible after the great winter they had

Other than the flash flooding, isn’t this overall an excellent thing for the region to end the long term drought? Last winters snows and rains seemed extremely beneficial but this seems like it could be the nail in the coffin to end the drought many thought would never end just a year ago

41 minutes ago, jconsor said:

Beware of recency bias! The downcasting of the tropical Atlantic happens nearly every year when there is a Jul/early Aug lull in activity.

 

I wouldn't be so sure *all* of the systems next two weeks will be weak and short-lived.  I see potential for one or two stronger ones, mainly in the subtropical central Atlantic and GOM/Bahamas area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While I agree with your comments about the SAL dissipating somewhat allowing for the increased chances of activity, it comes with a period of significant wind shear in pockets across the basin. I do not see a path for a strong storm over the next 2 weeks unless something develops rapidly in a window but with multiple TUTTs and SAL sticking around even if diminished it does not look like an environment that would support a long track system especially one of a stronger intensity 

Looks like a bunch of short lived sheared systems but an active stretch nonetheless 

It’s bad when 92 and a heat index of 95 qualifies as a cool down

Had 5 separate storms yesterday all with a lot of lightning. Kinda got a little fringed on most of them but still picked up 0.45” of rain. Did not get fringed by lightning however. It was rocking for several hours straight it seemed like

42 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I honestly think I’d put a D7 lemon on whatever meanders into the Gulf. GFS has something close to a TC but more importantly, the ensemble signal has grown steadily as we get closer to what looks like a conducive environment for gradual development taking shape. 

Agreed. This is the one we should be focused on at this point

Anyone order up any lightning? If so your order was delivered to the Raleigh area this afternoon 

.29” from afternoon storms. High 97.4

Crazy watching these powerful waves just evaporate over the MDR on modeling in peak season. Ensemble support had definitely increased and (we are in peak season now) the threat level is higher than it was a couple weeks ago but a couple of limiting factors remain:

1) SAL - this *should* follow climo and become less of a factor over the next few weeks but it is a dessert across most of the Atlantic 

2) East coast trough - this has been mentioned on here but a few thoughts: with a persistent trough over the east coast we are seeing more intrusions of continental dry air into the GOM, a TUTT over the western Atlantic, and a natural barrier to storms forming east favoring recurves. With the trough in place and the possibility more fronts make it to the gulf or SE coast to rot, that could be a focal point for development at some point but currently there is too much shear for that to happen.

3) subsidence off the African coast - this is something to watch and we saw this a lot last august, but these massive waves seem to blow up over the continent and die over water. I can’t blame SAL for this entirely. It seems the current pattern has created an area of subsidence near the CV islands. Perhaps it’s the wave interaction with the strong monsoon trough but it’s been a wave killer for MDR storms two years in a row. That’s something I’d like to see examined as a case study for impacts to East Atlantic waves stemming from a long period La Niña 

4) hostile Caribbean - very normal for early season but should be transitioning to a more favorable environment by now. This is where El Niño impacts will be seen the strongest. While current shear conditions across the area are not necessarily related to an El Niño pattern, will there be a period when it becomes favorable before the shear due to ENSO arrives? An active E PAC usually shuts down the Caribbean and brings me to me last observation…

5) Active E PAC - we all know an active E PAC does not favor development in the western Atlantic. With the E PAC season ramping up, does that further punt the start of the western Atlantic/GOM/Caribbean season? 

Dora has racked up an absurd ACE value of 74 

0.42” from a nice steady soaking rain around lunch earlier today 

It just seems unreasonable at this time to put 11 hurricanes on any forecast this year. It’s mid August and we have had 1 (barely) hurricane with no sign of any forming through late month. Getting 10 storms in September/October alone would be busy but 10 hurricanes then sounds ludicrous based on what we’ve seen to this point. Someone can save this post to remind me I said this when that happens but that’s a comical forecast to me though I guess the point is the median lies with an above average season when the dust settles