NorthHillsWx

3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

What's weird is the post Brad just made for Thursday night is showing widespread ICE and colder temps... not sure what model he's using 

It almost looks like the NAM, but for later in the weekend, not Thursday night

ICON is considerably warmer than 12z with considerably less precip. Does not have the weekend ice storm

13 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

The a branch breaker for sure! Better charge your phones! 

That’s exactly where you’d expect it to be too

Cold air is not going to get here. Can’t wish it here. We’re done. Over, finished

1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

I’m excited for the next 4 cold rain events 

Anyone taking the dramatic warming shown on this run as gospel has not lived here long. Wedges ALWAYS stick around longer and are stronger than forecast. The density of the cold air and our geographic orientation make it almost impossible to dislodge that airmass especially with precip falling into it. A couple weeks ago our highs were forecast in the mid 60’s but most of us stayed in mid 40’s through the day. It can definitely warm enough to change to liquid and not freezing rain, but it ain’t getting out of the mid 30’s triangle north and west in this setup 

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

From freezing rain one run to almost 70 in SC the next

That’s insane. Our rain isn’t even cold at that point 

1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Lining up with UKMET?

No, much colder 

10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

12z GEFS is out to lunch... Way warmer than OP (Weatherbell pic)

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

That’s not a bad look from the mean at all if you want a CAD wintry event 

5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

UK looks good up this way , not sure how much of the snow is actually ICE on their snow map though 

UK is rain for triangle 

5 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Bless God! Triad sleet and snow.

Verbatim the triangle would have a glacier on the ground if this solution played out 

CMC depicts a nice snowstorm on Tuesday. Slightly colder mid levels. I think in these situations it tends to under sample warm noses so that may end up being a very gfs-like run in reality 

4 minutes ago, ObiWanKarlNobi said:

Longtime lurker here.  I just registered an account so I could ask a question.  You guys seem to be taking this storm way more seriously then anything else this winter.  Am I correct in thinking that there is higher confidence than usual that this will pan out?  Should I start preparing for an ice storm and a multi-day power outage?

It has the highest potential to be a significant winter storm given the pattern and cold available of anything this season. Also, CAD events are more prevalent here and usually our “specialty.” Potential doesn’t verify to winter storms all the time. I’d probably wait a couple days to prepare as we’re still in the infancy of the cad solution but I’d definitely keep it on your radar 

1 minute ago, adamant said:

we did have a few major wind events clear out some of the trees/branches plus I think the maintenance of trimming branches near power lines has improved since the last one but you are correct in that there is a lot of potential damage to be done.

Yea, but wind doesn’t stress a tree in the same manner. It doesn’t prune them like ice weight does. Any weakness will be exposed, particularly pines, but hardwoods will drop a lot of branches as well. Definitely a concern given the time period since our last significant ice event

Not to fear monger, but being it’s been nearly 20 years since our last major ice storm in Raleigh, a significant amount of ice would be particularly damaging. GFS still on the warm side of guidance. I do not believe it’s capturing a locked in wedge accurately 

ICON is an ice disaster 

I was living in Alexandria Virginia for several years and we’d been forecast to get a crippling ice storm but got like 4-6” of mostly sleet. “Drifts” where it bounced off roofs stayed for more than a month even as we went into March and for a week afterwards it felt like a glacier 

I kinda hope one of these storms turns into a 2” sleet storm and below freezing. That much sleet is pretty cool, and surprisingly not that difficult to drive in. Plus it sticks around forever 

GFS takes 2 slp centers east of hatteras in a near perfect track, and we can’t buy modeled snow from either

2 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Hope it works better for you than it does for us. 

Jake Bentley is still gonna take y’all to the playoff just you wait...

I regress, no need for that pettiness. We’re all beat down by the 00z suite 

14 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Never seen so many Miller A rainstorms in 1 model run for AVL. I'm happy to just seen snow this winter. Always something to be thankful for. 

Easy to rain when the cold never makes it east of the mountains 

Welp. I’ll take South Carolina football fans’ approach to every season: there’s always next year 

1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

I took my Stihl chainsaw in to get serviced today.  That’s guaranteed to hold off an ice storm for at least another year.  Sort of like installing a whole-house generator.  Once you drop the big money on one, you never need to use it.

It worked according to the gfs 

Praying for ice 

#2020/21

Positive trends stabilized. We’ll see what tomorrow brings