NorthHillsWx

Yea that was a pretty classic winter storm, just with a lot more moisture than normal. If the sleet areas held the bad ZR would be pretty limited and most would have several inches of concrete with fluff on top. Not a sexy storm but that would be quite fun given the alternatives we’ve seen. Let’s see others trend that way before getting too excited but it’s pretty obvious what needs to happen to achieve somewhat of a win here

GFS holding its own and actually trending more strung out 48 hours out has to count for something right? … right?

Look at QPF trend from 12z to 18z for the Northeast. It did NOT go north and in fact was the exact trend we want, strung out and not as amped

Idk, that has kinda been jumping around a bit on GFS depiction. To me that was more noise than a trend

That’s actually pretty good backside snow. Would be a great topper on the glacier

Everyone please pray GooFuS scores a coup that run just kept central NCs lights on and all of us sledding Monday

Switches most of NC over to snow Sunday night. Much much different look than the amped models. This is a good run, no low cutting up the apps and look what happens with thermals on the backside!!!

GFS is best case scenario here (Raleigh). Almost all sleet

Icon ticking south, more separation between NS and Baja. Even stronger CAD signature. Good trends.

UKIE found reality after taking shrooms at 0z. Much much colder CAD

I mean honestly the CMC didn’t change much if at all from 0z

Brining 64 east of Raleigh

CMC flips part of DC metro over to rain

Yea, it’s a classic winter storm, still better than other guidance re snow/IP. But ZR definitely trending up as well

GFS keeps trending to other guidance

ICON looks slightly better at 500mb. More separation with the baja low initially

Hour 42 is in NAM range. It’s really beyond 60 hours that you just gotta take it with a grain of salt

I disagree, wasn’t one model run. The storm has been lost on everything but GFS in terms of snow and that’s a trend since yesterday morning. 0z just confirmed it

One thing I can say with 95% confidence is that a big snow event is off the table. Too much would have to be wrong on too many models. Snow to mix can certainly come back for many in NC, I can just say hoping for significant south trends is not as enjoyable as hoping for north trends with a phased system…

There’s a lot to be ironed out especially with how far west our trough digs. That kind of dictates the outcome here. Also, models will catch the CAD at some point today and you’ll see a trend to slightly colder solutions regardless of storm track. That being said, think best case scenario would be a front end thump and that would likely be limited to NC. Also think we will see, as discussed at length, a smaller ZR footprint in terms of heavy accumulation and more sleet, that’s just how the weather works in CAD miller Bs. Will be interesting to see if any souther correction happens though I doubt we see much change that way. More of a leveling off is what I expect. Something between euro and GFS

Not to engage in hyperbole but if you were around for the 2002 storm I would prepare for a similar outcome

Honestly similarities to this. ZR IS ALWAYS OVER MODELED. That being said I fully expect a swath of a bad ice event here but it will be NOWHERE as widespread as models show and many areas will see more sleet than modeled, given the HP were working with that is a mega cold air source through the event I’d have to think IP ends up predominant p type in upstate and foothills.

I don’t think the Euro changed much at all at 6z. Maybe the NW shift is over. That’s the first run without a NW shift in over 24 hours

I agree. We are all forgetting Euro doesn’t handle CAD well at range. That being said, we’re walking the line between ZR and IP now for most. Up until yesterday it was between SN and IP

Our ZR should melt slowly next week so there won’t be any wasted runoff for drought relief, lol