Jump to content

NorthHillsWx

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,044

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    That it’s a possibility now is quite shocking. These wobbles we’ve been watching for days now have extreme meaning given 2/3 of Jamaica is now probably too far right to be reasonably at threat for a direct landfall. I’m not saying it will miss but NHC explicitly has it heading NNE now on its track and it has definitely dipped due west. It will not take much more at all to miss entirely
  2. NorthHillsWx
    I will say if this gets to about 79W it would have the chance to miss wide left given the forecast angle of recurve
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now
  4. NorthHillsWx
    One thing about the western shifts in track that might make this even more unlucky is we are getting close to a point where it could directly hit every potential landmass: Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Bermuda. Bermuda now squarely in play
  5. NorthHillsWx
    It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast
  6. NorthHillsWx
    It definitely is. Looks like it’s just now starting to gain some latitude
  7. NorthHillsWx
    No words. Just a beast this morning
  8. NorthHillsWx
    This is going cat 5. Eye has completely cleared and is perfectly symmetrical. Beast mode activated
  9. NorthHillsWx
    People were claiming the intensity a bust in this flight bc of a NW-SE pass
  10. NorthHillsWx
    Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies
  11. NorthHillsWx
    If forecasts hold, Melissa all but guarantees we will finish the season above average ACE. This legitimately did not seem possible going into the third week of September
  12. NorthHillsWx
    Crazy that 4 of 5 hurricanes this year have been cat 4+
  13. NorthHillsWx
    Recon would indicate a hurricane
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Outflow finally expanding to the west. Seems like it’s getting there
  15. NorthHillsWx
    GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye
  16. NorthHillsWx
    My farm in Franklin county dipped to 33.1 and the airport close to there was 35. Frost advisory verified outside urban areas it would seem. Still my point click had me down to 37 this morning so we missed significantly
  17. NorthHillsWx
    Only got down to 45.5 here
  18. NorthHillsWx
    I don’t think it would on that track but NHC is showing it for continuity due to the otherwise extremely favorable environment. Track will play the pivotal role here in maximum intensity as all other factors would favor extreme intensification over the hottest water in the basin. GFS once again weak and east, similar to ICON. Will be some major losers on the model front from this one
  19. NorthHillsWx
    As expected, severe drought has spread into central NC as far west as Wake county. Meanwhile a pocket of severe drought conditions have developed SE of Charlotte as well. Widespread rain looks possible next week and will be more than welcomed given the rapidly escalating drought conditions across the state. Some areas have seen under 2” of rain total since the second half of August
  20. NorthHillsWx
    Obviously terrible flooding situation but that would be nonstop land interaction to keep it somewhat in check intensity wise
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity
  22. NorthHillsWx
    It’s crazy that we have a defined center and named storm and the ensemble outputs look like a 2 year olds drawing
  23. NorthHillsWx
    Severe drought very likely to expand across the Carolina’s and we are now likely to see back to back months with less than 1” of rain here. Not good, one bad symptom of the lackluster hurricane season
  24. NorthHillsWx
    35 with heavy frost at the farm in Louisburg this morning! Was not expecting this. Was 42 at my house when I left
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Someone needs to take the GFS out back and put it down like old yeller
×
×
  • Create New...