NorthHillsWx

This is very bullish: https://x.com/nwsraleigh/status/2016222988543074686?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

I’ve gotta say hoping for a NW trend on a phased system feels 10000x times more productive than the opposite, like last weekend

When do the pieces of this start moving onshore? Tomorrow?

This was a good run for central NC. I’ve learned my lesson about being in the bullseye 4 days out

The fact no one on the forum learned their lesson and are living model run to model run 4-5 days out reinforces why I love this place so much

A smart man would never extrapolate the end of the NAM

NEVER EVER UTTER THESE WORDS

Bottomed out at 14.2 here this morning. If we’d had full snow cover im sure it would’ve been in single digits

Wasn’t that how Jan 2022 worked out

Given trough placement this has eastern NC written all over it. With the strong ULL I think everyone can score some Arctic powder but the coastal needs the trough to go full negative to get western areas involved

Yes- it’s just the ULL, coastal gets going too late. The ULL is easier to score but if it’s just that without coastal enhancement this will be a widespread 1-4” type system, which everyone will gladly take, but the larger totals that started this thread will not be realized

NGL, this is a delicate setup. The ULL likely will squeeze something out over the Carolina’s but relying on a late phase with timing and low placement for a bigger coastal storm is like finding a needle in a haystack, maps looks beautiful but in reality, this one has way too many variables to have a high chance of success.

GFS drops the hammer. Big run incoming

Can’t wait to see this place at the end of the week

Wow. We weren’t even close to that

IMO no global did great. EURO AI sniffed the northern track out earlier. We rag the Euro but with the start time pushed to Sunday it jumped all at once to the more northern track 4-5 days out, obviously it was way too warm but overall after it made that jump I felt it led the way. GFS was just horrible. It held on to the more suppressed look the longest and began a painful tick north for the last 3 days. Short range, NAM nailed it. Cannot say enough about how impressive a performance from NAM this was. For this storm, looking like a miller A, I wonder if models will be better given it may be more consolidated than the mess that was the last system

Anyone see official storm totals? I’m estimating maybe 3/4” sleet and 0.15” ZR here but that’s up for debate. Could’ve been less

Probably 15 or 20-1 ratio stuff right there

Front came through and NW wind got gusty. DP dropped from 32.7 to 28.1. Temp sitting at 33.1 wonder if it falls back below freezing for a bit

You’re one of us. Don’t ever let anyone tell you differently

Screw NE, haven’t they already had enough this season???

NAO staying negative and PNA staying positive for foreseeable future. Please let us score. We have been waiting for sustained blocking and western ridging like this for nearly a decade. Southern stream trying to come alive as Nina fades to black. This is not going to be a Nina February torch again

The melt has commenced here. 32.7 our road glacier already looking slushy

Yep. Was not the drought relief we thought we’d get either

In terms of a QPF underperformance, RAH predicted the triangle to get 1.25-1.50” QPF up until go time basically. RDU recorded 0.50” for the entire event