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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Much needed soaking rains across the Carolina’s and Georgia, just what the Dr ordered
  2. NorthHillsWx
    First pass shows no real structural changes. No evidence of an outer eyewall development and no real pressure changes. Winds about the same. Let’s see what’s in the NE eyewall. I will say from a sat perspective this is the best the storms has looked.
  3. NorthHillsWx
    Might be most photogenic eye photos from recon in history
  4. NorthHillsWx
    https://x.com/reedtimmerusa/status/1982917665669669192?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g
  5. NorthHillsWx
    That it’s a possibility now is quite shocking. These wobbles we’ve been watching for days now have extreme meaning given 2/3 of Jamaica is now probably too far right to be reasonably at threat for a direct landfall. I’m not saying it will miss but NHC explicitly has it heading NNE now on its track and it has definitely dipped due west. It will not take much more at all to miss entirely
  6. NorthHillsWx
    I will say if this gets to about 79W it would have the chance to miss wide left given the forecast angle of recurve
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Is there a chance this thing misses Jamaica? Like I know no model shows it and it would be an epic modeling fail of even more epic proportions but dang if this doesn’t keep dragging further west when everything has it riding N or NE now
  8. NorthHillsWx
    One thing about the western shifts in track that might make this even more unlucky is we are getting close to a point where it could directly hit every potential landmass: Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Bermuda. Bermuda now squarely in play
  9. NorthHillsWx
    It’s actually wobbling south of due west again. What an impactful forecast where we don’t even know when the turn of a cat 5 will happen that will determine the literal fate of some towns on the south coast
  10. NorthHillsWx
    It definitely is. Looks like it’s just now starting to gain some latitude
  11. NorthHillsWx
    No words. Just a beast this morning
  12. NorthHillsWx
    This is going cat 5. Eye has completely cleared and is perfectly symmetrical. Beast mode activated
  13. NorthHillsWx
    People were claiming the intensity a bust in this flight bc of a NW-SE pass
  14. NorthHillsWx
    Recon confirms intensity. NHC > online weather forum weenies
  15. NorthHillsWx
    If forecasts hold, Melissa all but guarantees we will finish the season above average ACE. This legitimately did not seem possible going into the third week of September
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Crazy that 4 of 5 hurricanes this year have been cat 4+
  17. NorthHillsWx
    Recon would indicate a hurricane
  18. NorthHillsWx
    Outflow finally expanding to the west. Seems like it’s getting there
  19. NorthHillsWx
    GFS has been better than Euro and the hurricane models that took this well west of Jamaica. If anything they have started caving to GFS which was predicting the center reformation to the east that happened. That being said, none of this is good news for Jamaica they are squarely in the bullseye
  20. NorthHillsWx
    My farm in Franklin county dipped to 33.1 and the airport close to there was 35. Frost advisory verified outside urban areas it would seem. Still my point click had me down to 37 this morning so we missed significantly
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Only got down to 45.5 here
  22. NorthHillsWx
    I don’t think it would on that track but NHC is showing it for continuity due to the otherwise extremely favorable environment. Track will play the pivotal role here in maximum intensity as all other factors would favor extreme intensification over the hottest water in the basin. GFS once again weak and east, similar to ICON. Will be some major losers on the model front from this one
  23. NorthHillsWx
    As expected, severe drought has spread into central NC as far west as Wake county. Meanwhile a pocket of severe drought conditions have developed SE of Charlotte as well. Widespread rain looks possible next week and will be more than welcomed given the rapidly escalating drought conditions across the state. Some areas have seen under 2” of rain total since the second half of August
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Obviously terrible flooding situation but that would be nonstop land interaction to keep it somewhat in check intensity wise
  25. NorthHillsWx
    Overnight trends are east which probably would reduce the maximum potential intensity
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