NorthHillsWx

If 12z short range models are to be believed pretty much unanimous support to increase precip across the state with RDU looking at 4-6”. That’s not a forecast, that’s what the models show. I’m literally punting the 12k NAM like a football. There is nothing else remotely close to a super amped MA NE coastal. I wouldn’t go crazy adjusting totals or expectations, these models have been up and down. But that’s a good start and they may be getting a read on the system as it is getting underway now. Like I said, heed caution, one run does not a storm make but could be the start of a trend

12k is too north. Its not snowing DC to NYC with this

Just when you wanna hop off the train the NAM reels you back in

NAM beefed up precip

Imo yes. Watch means warning level wintry weather is possible advisory means it’s not it’s not going to reach warning criteria

I knew it was coming when I looked at modeling and RAH updated their totals. I’d laughed at you two days ago if you’d told me this would become a nuisance event but that’s what happens when you lose 1.5” of wintry QPF in that time period. This could get upgraded still assuming it ticks up but it’s the correct call for now

So 12z guidance today will be roughly 24 hours from the system start time. If there’s going to be a last minute uptick, it better start then. While I’d rule out any wholesale changes to the expected storm, even upticks in 0.10” can have a large impact on totals and impacts. We want to see the storm trend any bit west we can buy but most importantly we want to look for models filling in precip over the upstate and piedmont like the 3k did last night. The coastal just isn’t going to cut it we really want to see forcing from the trailing ULL pull every ounce of mid level moisture it can. A lot of times the NW trend isn’t the surface low trending west it’s models catching onto upper level features working to wring out mid level moisture. That trailing band associated with the southern edge of our ULL is also something to watch as that could save the day in western piedmont and foothills. Seeing improved banding or frontogenisis enhancement on the western side of the precip all need to be monitored by the meso models as we are well in their wheelhouse. The idea of a big coastal is gone, but there are enough dynamics at play and just enough enhancement that widespread 3”+ amounts are still possible. I’m not writing this off yet. Trends are not good. We saw the ensembles come down yesterday even though we had some good “trends” on ops (fools gold) but that seems to have caught up with us today. I’ll watch op trends through 0z tonight but we are quickly transitioning to watching CAMs

It would be high ratio fluff too which would be fun especially if we have a few inches on the ground but I’m not holding my breath

NAM might tick up again

Yikes. Good luck with the 3-4” in Greensboro. Hope it happens but I do not see where that’s coming from. All of this for a winter weather advisory…

I actually strongly disagree. It wasn’t one run. It was nonstop runs for a week from every model showing a major storm, not necessarily a snowstorm. QPF across most areas was near 1” with over 2” east. It literally was over 1” here at day 3. It was such consistent modeling WPC jumped on it early and issued a high chance of 4+” of snow from triad to DC. Our bar in Raleigh was originally a crippling ice storm so our expectations were not high at all although I would’ve wagered the house there would at least be a significant east coast storm. To get inside day 3 then lose it in short range is what happened here. Now I’m not saying it’s cooked. A 2-4” or 3-5” snowfall would make everyone on the board happy and that’s still on the table east of 77 imo. We’ve seen last minute trends. But it wasn’t one run that sucked the entire east coast into this one and resulted in the MA forum starting two threads and then offering up posters as sacrifices…

My forecast totals: Triangle: Boom = 4-5” Bust =TR-1/2” Expected = 1-2” with isolated 3” possible. More east Triad: Boom = 2-3” Bust = 0” Expected = 1” Mixing will be from Raleigh south but wake will favor more snow than sleet as a whole

Long way to say 1-2” snowfall incoming. Maybe 3” if someone gets a band maybe 1/2” if it mixes with sleet haha

If model trends are right, I’m not sure you want to be due north of Raleigh. Lot of models swing the back edge through Raleigh to the NE and places due north get less QPF. I’m saying the Vance/granville areas and parts of Franklin county then west.

Honestly that’s not far from a plausible outcome. The consensus seems to be 0.2-0.3” QPF for RDU so I seriously doubt we don’t see something accumulate but that’s likely 1-1.5”. 6z GFS and 12k NAM keep hope alive for maybe a warning but everything else cut totals. 3k NAM went from a 6-8” storm to 2-4” and the EURO now has Raleigh down to around 2”

This has to tick west, right? Every coastal like the last 10 years has ticked west right before go time and burnt Raleigh but this one ticks east? At this point I’m not sure even if it’s all snow there will be enough QPF to get more than 1-2 inches and, once again with light rates and falling in afternoon, that will be 1-2” on the grass. So a nuisance event.

Yea I will be honest I do not see what they are up your way. Raleigh looks like it’s going to be on the very edge of the coastal and north and west of that QPF falls. Only place a warning looks locked in is far SE VA and NE NC. Should be a great event there

Looks like QPF continues to go down and mid levels continue to cool. RAH pretty much said they aren’t sure there will be enough moisture to hit warning criteria in central NC. Seems like the correct call at this juncture

SW Virginia stayed about the same

Canadian went pretty far east. Cut QPF across the board

Until the NAM caves I’m tempering my expectations for all snow.

That’s a great run for triangle folks. Beefed up QPF and better thermals. Look at the foothills screw zone. That area cannot catch a break

GFS is excellent triangle east. Not good for foothills crowd

Shaping up to be a good coastal storm for whoever has banding and no mid level issues

Bet against NAM thermals at your own peril