NorthHillsWx

The December 28 system has trended from the Canadian maritimes to the mid Atlantic due to blocking on the GFS over the last 4 runs. Definitely some volatility with unresolved strength of blocking over eastern Canada

RDU now has Columbia’s climate. RDUs climate has shifted to DC. Do that across the country

But… was it measurable if it was a trace?

Uphill battle every year for snow in the south with cards stacked against us from climo but this looks like a total disaster heading into January. This isn’t the reset we were thinking a week ago, this looks like our worst fears realized and a switch to full on Nina winter. With the cold leaving Canada we’re talking weeks of step down to get cold enough to talk winter weather at a minimum. And that’s assuming something flips. I’m typically not a mid season cliff diver but I haven’t seen anything trending right over the last week. Add in STJ is dead and will remain that way unless pacific relaxes which is a pipe dream at this point. Need some hope at some point before the calendar flips to 2026

MJO moving into phase 2, PNA tanking, NAO going from negative to neutral. Too soon to call the month shot but January is looking extremely bleak. We’re losing the cold in Canada and likely will be looking at a total reset needed on this side of the globe. In other words, this is trending towards a disaster as we head into prime climo. Looks like a pure Nina pattern developing with continental air. My god any optimism has faded at rapid rates this year

We moved into my current house December 8, 2018. I think some on this board remember that date. Thought at the time I’d cracked the code for snow in triangle

Ahhh! The infamous bowling ball with transient HP setup. Big dog potential or 40 degree rain with exact same LP track. That’s a go big or go home type setup. With nothing else foreseeable and one of the worst overall patterns in years establishing, I’m here for it…

As shocked as I was when the sun came up this morning

One thing I’ll say about the upcoming torch is that all will be forgotten and forgiven when there’s a band of 6-10” from ATL to Va beach and everywhere in between in mid January followed by single digits and then snow showers the next day

Forgot to mention we picked up 1.18” of rain Thursday night/Friday morning. Brings the month to 2.67” here

The fact we avoided this last winter is impressive

I think models have accepted the PNA now. Looks to get down to -2 now. Full blown disaster if you want winter weather

Interpretation: you’re gonna need hopium for a snowstorm this year

MJO delivering but pacific won’t let us take advantage. Really wish La Niña would fade a little earlier, maybe we could break this patten quicker

Meanwhile PNA looks to stay negative the entire month, with some signs of another deep tank headed into January

Yea I wasn’t speaking to you, your post was just last in line for the other ones arguing about measurable snow. People saying the maps were wrong bc they hadn’t had any measurable and were showing up as a TR was really who it was directed to. Rather be arguing over 6 to 8 in or whether one spot hits blizzard criteria, not who has picked up 0.10” and who hasn’t

0z euro is acceptable

18z GFS is a SER nightmare

A trace means essentially at least one snowflake or sleet pellet was observed. That’s it, not measurable. You could have 100 TR events and it wouldn’t equate to measurable snow. So if those maps show 3 TR events for your backyard you still haven’t seen measurable. That being said, looking at those maps I’d say 50% of the state has seen 0.10” which technically is measurable. Someone can correct me, but I don’t think snow is considered measurable unless you have 0.10”, but that’s still a low bar. By no means is anyone thrilled with 0.10” but seeing 50% of the state with “measurable” snow by Christmas hasn’t happened since 2018 and with the BN temps it’s at least has been wintry.

25.7 currently which is also our low. There are a wide range of temps across NC this morning and we are running 4-5 degrees colder than RDU

Unfortunately the Aleutian ridge doesn’t really disappear it just retrogrades west moving the MW high axis just west enough for our -NAO, a fickle look with raging -PNA but at least some positivity. Given base state with pacific id be worried this would remain a progressive pattern and any cold shot/winter weather opportunity would be limited in duration and thus somewhat unlikely even if we end up cold around new years.

Some pretty positive changes on ensembles overnight regarding NAO tanking after Christmas just before new years.

30.5 after a pleasant high of 52

Southern is an OK forum, I post occasionally, but I cannot stand the look and feel of the site. It’s brutal to me. There are good posters there and a lot of folks who post in both but I too wish we could get some back who’ve left here. It’s quite the spectacle to go over there if Raleigh is getting screwed by a storm. If you think the Raleigh folks here are bad it’s even worse there. They have a lot of Charlotte posters too which I appreciate as someone who lived there for a long time after college

Until the pacific relaxes this looks like shut the blinds for winter weather for a long time. Models showing that extreme negative PNA look now with what they’re spitting out. Just a ripping flow too, drought areas likely to get much worse. Canada is still very cold and stays cold so there might be hope down the road. December likely to finish BN for most and most of NC has measurable snow already so no shutout. Might be time to throw your middle finger up at the pacific I’m sure it’ll pay attention and listen