NorthHillsWx

Jennettes pier is gusting to 65, sustained at 42!!! (MPH)

I cannot believe how dry it’s gotten after back to back 9”+ rainfall months at my house. We’re on track to finish with under 1/2” of rain for the entire month and I frankly don’t see another rain chance unless something tropical happens

Well so much for any rain in central NC

Jennette’s Pier in Nags Head is now gusting up to 60! Quite the coastal low EDIT: duck pier gusted to 58

They read this forum and listened to everyone complaining about them naming every cloud lol. Looking at this system it appears fully non-tropical. Corbina and Nags head are now gusting over 50mph at the moment, very impressive for a non tropical low. Would not shock me to see some gusts into the 60’s if the system keeps tightening up. Name or no name, the OBX are experiencing mid tier TS impacts

Hatteras buoy is now reporting sustained 35 kt wind with gusts approaching 50 kts. Likely to be an unpleasant day on the obx

Having an AN season seems unattainable at this point in terms of ACE and even NS. NN might be a stretch. It would take another ACE monster like Erin to even approach normal levels. With only 1 hurricane thus far it seems unlikely we will reach our average hurricane count as well. The current cherry certainly could develop and pad those numbers a bit but even that systems development keeps getting delayed somewhat on modeling. Really at a loss of words for this September. I thought 91L was going to kick off a more active period. I can’t even imagine our opinion of the year if Erin did not become the ACE machine it was.

The eastern half of NC could get some heavy, beneficial rainfall over the next couple days depending on how strong the coastal low gets.

Probably not tropical but the low off the Carolina coast could become quite strong when it moves ashore. Some guidance shows winds approaching 50 kts

Never count out October in the gulf but east coast is fighting climo into October for significant landfalls. Obviously there are exceptions

Dipped down to 53.5 this morning. Took the kids for a walk and it felt amazing. Great day for watching football with a bunch of big games this afternoon

Where in the world are you getting “lackluster or nonexistent tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic” from the 2024 season? It was above average on every metric and featured some of the worst hurricane impacts we have ever seen. There were 5 MDR hurricanes and the Gulf was active as well. Sorry, I will not agree with you on this.

.14” overnight here. We did make it to 70 yesterday

We may not hit 70 today. Cloudy, drizzly 66 at the moment

Low of 56 this morning

Cracked 90 for first time since July yesterday. Topped out at 92.6. Finally got some rain, .02” in the gauge this morning

I cannot stand him. Used to be one of the best but gave into social media and clicks

Man the western Atlantic looks downright hostile the next 3 weeks besides home brew

Might be DOA

Definitely an increase in models that either don’t develop this at all or keep it weak. Likely a main reason near term track guidance keeps shifting south. Environment around the islands looks fairly hostile for whatever makes it there

The idea this becomes a carribean storm is increasing. One other thing to note is several models show quite a bit of wind shear when the system approaches the islands. Perhaps they are seeing a shallower system that rides further south. Definitely an interesting track evolution from whatever forms here. Might have some hurdles ahead of it but I’d say the threat to land has increased markedly

Low of 59.4 and high of 87.1 today. Maybe we’ll catch some of this line of storms this evening

It’s gotten quite dry in NC since the deluge in the first half of August. But the cooler temps aren’t killing yards like you’d expect after a 2-3 week break in rainfall during the summer

EPS and GEFS both show notable upticks in activity beyond the 10th. As were in the peak of hurricane season that is not surprising. The good news is that at least through mid month, the eastern trough hangs on which continues to be a deterrent to any storm approaching from the east. I think the CAG seen on some GFS runs is overblown as it tends to do but with La Niña developing and a tendency for shear to decrease this time of year I’d expect to start looking to the carribean and southern gulf. SSTs continue to decrease off the east coast from NC northward and I fished Friday out of Morehead and can confirm how much it has cooled. Water was 76-77 until about 35 miles out and warmed to 82 in the stream. Contrast to when I fished last week of July in same location and the temp never fell below 83 from the inlet to the stream and the stream was 87. That’s a huge difference in energy available of anything threatens NC-northward from a month ago. To me, this feels like the lid is starting to come off a bit in the Atlantic and mid month looks to be quite active

Low of 55 this morning. Warmup starts today through Saturday, does not look like we make it even through the first week of September with no 90s (I’m still taken aback that we made it through August without a 90 degree reading) but the good news is yet another fall like airmass moves in to start next week. What a freaking pattern!