NorthHillsWx

Trend has definitely been towards a stronger tucked coastal. Major impacts for obx looking likely now with prolonged exposure to NE wind and fetch with strong winds on land as well. Inland this should deliver moderate but beneficial rain. If this is a sign for what’s in store this winter I’ll be very happy, this is a snowstorm setup just a couple months too early

The level of anxiety this forum would have if this system was in January would be through the roof

Today was the 22nd record high at RDU this year. 2026 has seen more record highs than any other year in history for Raleigh

Had an astonishing high of 93.9 and currently 91. Awful

Windshield wiper. GFS finally onboard with it too, tho weak and offshore

EURO had a powerful coastal storm at 0z and legitimately lost the whole thing at 6z

So are we gonna have a nor Easter this weekend or is it going to be beautiful? Models have flipped and flopped (besides GFS which has held firm with no storm)

This is an excellent read on the area of extreme wind observed around Pensacola https://x.com/bevinswx/status/2109425113624150145?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

We are so back

Heck of a model battle

90.4 at my PWS right now

That inland 118 in Jay is pretty incredible id almost say unbelievable if it wasn’t for the 114 recorded nearby. Not surprisingly the wind damage in those areas is devastating

Isaias (2026) now stands alone in NC history as the largest tornado outbreak in the states history with 13 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday! The early calls for this being a prolific tornado producer were validated

Interested in how the weeklies verify during an El Niño winter. If I recall they were excellent last year especially with temperature

Another record event was set this week: 13 tornadoes have been confirmed in NC alone making this the single largest tornado outbreak from a tropical system In the states history. Also the Fayetteville tornado was upgraded to EF2 which isn’t surprising given the damage pics. Very fortunate there weren’t more injuries across the state. Isaias will not be forgotten here. One of the tornadoes In louisburg touched down less than 200 yards from my farm and the survey team was out there Monday

There have now been 12 tornadoes confirmed in NC, 3 of which were EF2. This now ties Isaias with Isaias in 2020 as the largest outbreak from a tropical system in the states history.

https://falls.uslakes.info/Level/ https://kerr.uslakes.info/Level/ Really bad situation around here shaping up if something doesn’t change

Simon had become quite the microcane. Pretty eye this evening

And most of that EURO rain in NC comes from the front on Friday which is a serious outlier in modeling. So there is a good chance it ends up like the rain-less GFS

I dont know if Ive ever seen an ensemble that dry for that long. GFS is practically rainless across the SE for the entire run. Where is our Nino STJ? We got very lucky to get the tropical system, most all the region got at least 1" of rain especially worst drought areas

Good luck figuring out Simon's track. If you haven't, please check out today's model guidance for the system...

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes on Sunday in NC from Isaias, making it the second largest tornado outbreak from a tropical system in the states history. First place? Also Isaias (12) from 2020… Surveys are still ongoing so there’s a chance that number increases Also, believe this moves the event into the top 6 single day largest tornado outbreaks in the states history. All this with a level 2 (slight) risk. With all the recent fails during level 3 and 4 risk days it is almost fitting to set tornado records on a slight risk day.

Now 11 confirmed tornadoes in NC from Sunday making it the second most ever in the state from a tropical system. The first place storm? Isaias in 2020….

Duplin County NC and Newberry County SC. Fayetteville was assigned preliminary rating of EF1.

19 confirmed tornadoes so far. 2 EF2s