NorthHillsWx

The reason that area near the Bahamas and Gulf has been relatively quiet despite low shear is mostly due to how hostile it is east of there, in the MDR where most of the disturbances originate from that could cause storms to form there. Waves and weak storms like Dolly simply are not able to make it west to take advantage of the better conditions. As said above, fronts digging down into the gulf or the fall CAG would be the likely source of anything tropical in those areas. Edouard showed us that it’s possible to get homegrown systems this year, and the likelihood of another ramps up as fall fronts start to make it to the gulf. However, these aren’t ever home runs for development and stronger fronts usually favor more wind shear and dry air as we get later into the fall. The window for something strong to take advantage of these ribbons of favorable conditions is not huge, but if the Atlantic produces anything of note it will likely originate in these two areas as the rest of the basin is completely cooked by shear

Hawaii is getting insanely lucky with Lowell. That’s a beast of a system

Next wave coming off Africa has some decent ensemble support for development at least early on…

Might as well circle my house and add D4 on next drought monitor. We’ll have to wait 10 more months for another AN month of rain I guess

0.00”. Saw the outflow coming before the storms were even here and knew we were cooked

Another miss for me. Incredible

Grand total of 0.01” here

Didn’t get as hot as yesterday, but still extreme. 100.5 was the high

96 at 11:30…. On pace for our hottest day of the year 1:20- up to 100.2

Just caught the outflow from the storm sitting over RDU and it feels incredible

Looks like RDU made it at least to 101

Nope it fell apart just before reaching here, nothing but some mood drops. We blew the top off the thermometer today, topped out at 101.8!!!

Currently 100 with a dew point of 72 giving me a heat index of 110… Brutal doesn’t even describe this well enough

This week's drought monitor showed some more slippage in northern NC with an expansion for D3 and the reintroduction of D4 in the Triad area. Meanwhile the drought was again chipped away at the mountains and coast. Elsewhere in the south most areas remained unchanged but south of ATL has been dry lately and saw the reintroduction of moderate drought after a long break from it. Rest of Ga and SC were mostly unchanged

2010 was I think the hottest summer on record for Raleigh. I was in school at Clemson so I did not get to experience that here, thankfully

Yep. From ChatGPT: 2026 Raleigh Heat Metrics At-A-Glance (Year-To-Date) Days over 90°F: 65 days Days over 95°F: 33 days Days over 100°F: 6 days

RDU did hit 100. We maxed out at 98.8 at my house, but will say the trusty car thermometer was reading over 100 and got up to 103 on the beltline pretty much my whole drive back from the office until I got into my neighborhood. I'm sure some localized areas were well over 100. Feels like walking through a bowl of hot soup this morning. This is one of the most brutal summers I can ever remember living here. Just no real extended relief from humidity since June and no sign of real fall-like weather though Sun-Tues will be a decent reprieve

Key to all these is RI or last minute organization right before LF. Great examples. I think S FL gets some brown ocean effect simply due to the swampiness/ever present water of that part of the state. Wilma and Katrina are other examples of storms that did not weaken over S FL.

Couldn’t you say that about every tropical system though? And the brown ocean effect here was what supposedly kept the circulation intact, enhanced the rain that this speaks to. So this is saying the storm caused the brown ocean effect but how was it able to sustain long enough for that to happen? Also, surface temps (and what the rain water temp would be) during the heaviest rainfall were in the mid to upper 70’s, below what would be sufficient for tropical processes. This to me is lazy. There are other processes here

Not sure we’re gonna crack 100 today, haven’t been able to get above 98 and clouds have moved in. Sauna out regardless

It’s been said but my goodness if this system had another day over water this might’ve been a major

It could be to an extent but this whole region is in some level of drought, so it would be highly unlikely a moist environment exists on the ground outside of what the storm has produced. I think more likely this is a function of an extremely unstable environment, low shear, and proximity to gulf moisture. This area has been known historically for producing similar occurrences of systems maintaining longer than expected so there might be some regional geography/proximity to the gulf that factors in for adequate moisture transport with minimal elevation to disrupt a surface low. Very very impressive storm, did not think we’d still be talking about this system much today

Some of the rates reported have rivaled Harvey (8”+ per hour) but thankfully the duration will not be near as long and obviously the size of the system is much more compact. Just another TS reminding us that wind speed isn’t always what should be the most important messaging about TS impacts. This one caught meteorologists off guard as pretty much everyone forecast a rapid decay of the circulation and no one mentioned 20”+ amounts that we are now seeing. Some 30” totals seem likely as 25-27” have already been reported with rain continuing, This is going to be a very memorable system for the areas impacted.

Over 20” in places now, flash flood emergency issued

Mesonet Station FW9014 in Livingston Texas just reported sustained TS winds at 39 mph with gusts into the mid 50s in the remnant core Meanwhiloe Livingston Reservoir is reporting a sustained wind of 46 mph! I think the downgrade to TD came way too early based on these current observations of at least TS conditions