NorthHillsWx

Couldn’t you say that about every tropical system though? And the brown ocean effect here was what supposedly kept the circulation intact, enhanced the rain that this speaks to. So this is saying the storm caused the brown ocean effect but how was it able to sustain long enough for that to happen? Also, surface temps (and what the rain water temp would be) during the heaviest rainfall were in the mid to upper 70’s, below what would be sufficient for tropical processes. This to me is lazy. There are other processes here

Not sure we’re gonna crack 100 today, haven’t been able to get above 98 and clouds have moved in. Sauna out regardless

It’s been said but my goodness if this system had another day over water this might’ve been a major

It could be to an extent but this whole region is in some level of drought, so it would be highly unlikely a moist environment exists on the ground outside of what the storm has produced. I think more likely this is a function of an extremely unstable environment, low shear, and proximity to gulf moisture. This area has been known historically for producing similar occurrences of systems maintaining longer than expected so there might be some regional geography/proximity to the gulf that factors in for adequate moisture transport with minimal elevation to disrupt a surface low. Very very impressive storm, did not think we’d still be talking about this system much today

Some of the rates reported have rivaled Harvey (8”+ per hour) but thankfully the duration will not be near as long and obviously the size of the system is much more compact. Just another TS reminding us that wind speed isn’t always what should be the most important messaging about TS impacts. This one caught meteorologists off guard as pretty much everyone forecast a rapid decay of the circulation and no one mentioned 20”+ amounts that we are now seeing. Some 30” totals seem likely as 25-27” have already been reported with rain continuing, This is going to be a very memorable system for the areas impacted.

Over 20” in places now, flash flood emergency issued

Mesonet Station FW9014 in Livingston Texas just reported sustained TS winds at 39 mph with gusts into the mid 50s in the remnant core Meanwhiloe Livingston Reservoir is reporting a sustained wind of 46 mph! I think the downgrade to TD came way too early based on these current observations of at least TS conditions

Based on radar and some of the wind observations today with the highest gusts being recorded inland from port Arthur, Nederland, to Beaumont, it seems almost likely the storm continued to strengthen for a period after landfall, contrary to NHC estimates

90 mph gust reported earlier in port Arthur: https://x.com/mattdevittwx/status/2094914628283224102?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

Beaumont gusting to 69 mph! This thing still packing a punch

Beaumont currently sustained around 45 gusting into 50’s. Impressive for a 60 mph land falling storm Edit: Beaumont just gusted to 58

Nederland, TX (inland from port Arthur) has been reporting gusts to 70 mph

I was involved in a caveat from last season…

Texas point topped out at 50 kts sustained with gusts to just below hurricane force, 62 kts (71 mph). This storm was likely 1-2 hours away from hurricane intensity based on the rapid organization at landfall

Now 46 gusting to 59 kts at Texas point, exceeding operational intensity. That’s a north wind coming off the land too. Higher velocities still offshore. To me this is easily a 55 kts system

Sustained at TS winds of 35 kts gusting to 48 kts at Texas Point right now. Calcasieu Pass also registered gusts to 46 kts recently Edit: Now sustained near 40 kts at Texas Point. Probably a 50-55 kts system being highest velocities are still offshore and we are already close to observing operational intensity on a land observing site

This storm looks like a hurricane on radar now. I know it's not one but that isn't a bad radar presentation at all. Definitely more easterly shear than NHC has mentioned though, it cannot wrap convection upshear despite numerous attempts

About to fry for next 4 days. How many times can we reach 100?

We finished with 1.52" for the month, solidifying August as the 11th of last 12 months with below normal precip at my location for the Raleigh area

Outta time, but a pretty cool evolution to watch unfold this morning

Might be starting to see some of that frictional convergence at play now with the tightening core

Improvement on IR imagery is remarkable over just the last 2 hours

Starting to see some barbs approaching hurricane force. Obviously these are at height but this is probably a 50-55 kt system based on radar data alone

Yep, was looking forward to one more. Radar has RAPIDLY improved on north side too. Me thinks RI might be occurring. Crazy cool processes to watch on radar. For the talk earlier of no defined core, IR and radar both show it quickly blossoming. Lightning in southern quad is a definitive sign of strengthening too. Lets see how quickly it ramps up

This next pass could see some very significant intensification if these rapid increases in radar velocities are sustained and sampled