NorthHillsWx

https://x.com/pappenheimwx/status/2108697812766441670/video/1?s=46

Doesn’t matter much now. Eyewall moving onshore

What a beast. Who saw this coming a week ago

The eyewall is roughly 4 hours away. We’re on final approach

One thing shear is doing is going to work on eyewall symmetry. Half-a-cane look starting. Hopefully that starts the weakening process. This current convective burst and little change with the CDO seriously lessen the chances of significant weakening but you can tell this storm is simply being held in check atm

Yep.

For real. IMO based on recon we have a cat 4 just hours from landfall in a very populated part of Florida and some on here still think a nor Easter is going to be the end result.

I think we’re getting some sting jet interaction. This very likely is cat 4 based on recon’s last pass of FL winds 130+ kts

Recon looks like this has shot up to cat 4

That… is actually impressive. Against 40 kts of shear

New hot towers. Still probably another hour to true peak

FL winds actually up and pressure down last pass. This is a 110 kt storm now

Recon shows this has either peaked or leveled off. NHC noted they now expect a major at/just before LF

A rapidly intensifying major under 10 hours from landfall is justification for as many passes as they safely have fuel for!

I’m upping my prediction from yesterday (previously 105 kt peak, 80 kt LF) to 110 kt peak, 95 kt LF

The regional hurricane models started hinting at this yesterday but there’s a solid chance of a cat 4 peak, especially with the still improving presentation. Would like to see more pressure falls continuing for that to happen but this hot tower might do it we’re roughly 10 hours or so from landfall and this hasn’t peaked. I’m growing doubtful of significant weakening given trends this morning. Hurricane models also show this being much stronger on the coast than yesterday.I think the continued easterly motion and increase in speed is the cause.

Well i didn’t expect it but somehow we got a picturesque hurricane out if this. Clearly very powerful looking at satellite. Beast

As for the football “controversy” noted, the earlier arrival time brings the worst weather in Alabama and Mississippi through before the games. That being said, I could see significant wind damage in Tuscaloosa tomorrow morning and the chance for widespread power outages. While weather during that game will be fine, the damage done prior would be my concern. 50-60 mph gusts will probably occur with the remnant eyewall wherever that ends up and combined with wet soils that should be pretty damaging. The games in Georgia and Carolina’s will be wet with severe weather and lightning causing possible delays. Given the magnitude of the game in Tuscaloosa and amount of people there it would probably be wise to maybe close the lots until 2 pm or something to keep people from trying to tailgate or drive during the worst weather when trees could potentially come down

The odds this maintains cat 3 into landfall are not low. Also the fast forward motion is going to aid in gusts. Very serious situation unfolding now. Hope everyone took evacuation orders seriously

GDM models absolutely destroyed the physics based models on this storm. How those euro and GFS runs where they had a weak TS still sitting off the Yucatán at this timeframe looking now?

It might be earlier than that. Keeps bumping up landfall time each run. We’re not working with a ton of time for this to fall apart and it doesn’t matter when the center crosses because that eyewall is obviously out ahead of it. Dangerous situation saw they increased max surge from 7 to 9 feet, not insignificant at all especially with the population center this is plowing into

Fully supported by recon data. That’s why NHC waited at 8 am knowing they had a plane heading straight for the money pass. Great job hurricane hunters. This might peak at cat 4

Upgrade coming. What a pass. Might be 120

This pass will decide if it gets the upgrade. I would be shocked if it didn’t find cat 3-worthy winds

HAFS-B has gone from a decapitated, essentially nor Easter, landfall to a cat 3 with eyewall intact as it crosses the coast. Buckle up coastal residents