NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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Also has it pretty much on the coast at 100 mph now
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Bet this is close to major already
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Next recon will be telling.
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I’m going with an overnight/morning peak of 105 kts and a LF at 80 kts
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Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that
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Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight?
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Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap
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FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well
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Not a bad looking storm at all!
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Yep. Core is there and it will be moving over slightly warmer waters too. Diurnal max will be the max for this system. Imo 95-105 kts is attainable
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Recon seems supportive of 80 kts, closing in on cat 2 at a much more modest rate today
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Looks like a legit eye to me but it’s only cleared out bc the convection waned and isn’t overshooting it from the SW I believe. Looks legit now
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My expectation for most of the piedmont is 1" but I would not be surprised in the coastal convection robbed even more moisture and there is a screw zone of like 1/2" between here and PTI
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Been on the same pattern since yesterday of convection really dying off during diurnal minimum but coming back with a vengeance overnight
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Very impressive structure especially given the shear. If it maintains the current blow up of storms during the convective minimum that could allow significant intensification
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Winds catching up to the pressure falls. Wouldn’t surprise me if recon found a cat 2 this morning. RI since yesterday morning in spite of shear. 40 mph increase since this time yesterday.
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oh dear lord here we go again
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Significant strengthening ongoing this pass
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Incredible organization since this morning’s flight. The inner core is well on its way to becoming established. Very tight core too
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Very good chance of severe weather across the south given the combination of a tropical system interacting with a strong jet and dry air shooting in the backside. Probably a tornado outbreak for the south
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Hate seeing that convection showing up on the coast, that typically screws us in these tropical setups. Ive seen this dozens of times with a tropical system going west of the apps retrograding into a large non-tropical low where days of heavy rain modeled ends up as a singular line of strong storms while the coast gets inches of rain and the convection sits there. This is not a great setup for prolonged rain in the piedmont of NC. Eastern slopes of mountains will get pummeled though
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Recon will tell us a lot here shortly. If this is going to make a run at a major, the bones need to be there now. A tight developing core would mean this likely goes major. Anything strung out and it probably doesn’t have time before shear inhibits it
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From a public messaging perspective idk if we want to fall victim to ensuring everyone this falls apart before landfall especially if this, say it peaks as a cat 4 18 hours from landfall, and is roaring to the coast at 20 mph. That’s a big gamble
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Agreed 100%. I don’t see how this doesn’t weaken and possibly significantly before landfall but it might be too late. That extremely fast motion into the coast is going to make this dangerous and likely have some jet streak interactions which could help it hold onto intensity longer than usual. I’m convinced tho that this exceeds most guidance (not unusual at all for this location especially with a small storm) in the short term
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Small cyclone, nuclear grade water temps, BOC, divergent flow. This is going to explode today. Think even the aggressive models are undershooting intensity. Do not think this landfalls near peak intensity but next 24 hours I expect this to become a high end cane I’ve seen this look before in the gulf…
