NorthHillsWx

If TD 6 can stay In that narrow pocket of lower shear I could see this system be a bit of a surprise strength wise. Wouldn’t shock me if this approached hurricane strength given the thermodynamic environment it resides in and small size. Obviously if it gets blasted by shear that is moot but this could be a surprise system

It was almost like NHC was just hoping it would go away so they didn’t have to classify it

24 hours later still wondering why 99L isn’t at least classified as a TD

Wedged in 60s for highs Wednesday???

Picked up 0.31” here, brings MTD total to 1.90”

If this was worth flying a plane into they’d called is a TD

Was about to post about that! WOW

Special update increased odds of 99L developing to 60% and that seems low given satellite. To me I’m not sure how this isn’t a depression at least but I think it is classified as such at 5 regardless

99L looks like a storm already. This is going to break the streak. This one snuck up on me

Back into severe drought status again here. Drought worsened noticeably in central NC on most recent monitor. Far Eastern NC and parts of western NC are drought free https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?NC

Made it to 63 but still haven’t hit 50s yet. Thought today we would

Low of 64.9 and with the lower humidity it finally feels somewhat fall like

Maxed out at 94.5 here. Ridiculous but the front seems like it came through, already down to 86

That’s a stunning storm east of Hawaii. Great grab, could fit the entire big island in the eye

Little back door front tomorrow will be quite nice for NC peeps but SC and Ga will have to wait

Radar showed anywhere between 1/4” and 1/2” for Fuquay

Sauna status here. Windows all fogged up. Grateful for the rain last night but it’s awful outside today

Finally got the rain we’d been looking for. Picked up 1.30” overnight which brings event total to 1.57” and MTD to 1.59”

Finally decent rainfall here, picked up 0.27 between a few separate showers. 0.29” MTD

Another measly 0.01” here. Brings mtd to 0.02”

May be in a heat pocket but we’ve surged to 98.7 at my house currently. Seems above most other obs EDIT: peaked at 99.3

Ahhh back to the GFS seasonal love affair with the CAG

0.01” here for September, hopefully this weekend produces

They aren’t done yet. Norbert looks like it will at least threaten the islands. Crazy Nino

The reason that area near the Bahamas and Gulf has been relatively quiet despite low shear is mostly due to how hostile it is east of there, in the MDR where most of the disturbances originate from that could cause storms to form there. Waves and weak storms like Dolly simply are not able to make it west to take advantage of the better conditions. As said above, fronts digging down into the gulf or the fall CAG would be the likely source of anything tropical in those areas. Edouard showed us that it’s possible to get homegrown systems this year, and the likelihood of another ramps up as fall fronts start to make it to the gulf. However, these aren’t ever home runs for development and stronger fronts usually favor more wind shear and dry air as we get later into the fall. The window for something strong to take advantage of these ribbons of favorable conditions is not huge, but if the Atlantic produces anything of note it will likely originate in these two areas as the rest of the basin is completely cooked by shear