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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. I know it’s always overzealous with the tropics but the recent GFS run shows 4 separate MDR systems in a row including 94L and 92L, the current invests. While Caribbean shear and the TUTT over SW Atlantic persists this active wave could really boost season numbers tho I doubt any get far west or very strong
  2. Fairly pleasant outside this evening. “Only” made it to 89.6 and heat index never got above 92 with tolerable DPs in the 60s. Tomorrow is back to the oven
  3. Looks like one of those CAG systems in the Caribbean
  4. Pretty surprising to see this much MDR activity in a strong nino in August. Heck even some recent Augusts with La Niña couldn’t produce in MDR
  5. Based on current presentation this might be the rare and infamous single advisory storm
  6. 93L likely became a brief tropical storm overnight based on the LLC seen on visible this morning but since that time convection has been ripped well to east of center. Might be a numbers booster in post season analysis
  7. RDU precip shield holds again. Guess it was just under repair during July
  8. 9 days straight without rainfall here and, coupled with the heatwave, it has rapidly dried out. Maybe we get in on the MCV action tonight. SPC Bumped it to a level 2 for western half of the state tonight
  9. They bumped the threat level up today for the possibility that a MCV passes through this evening. Level 2 risk for triangle, triad, and foothills/mountains this evening and early overnight. Will be interesting to see if this pans out models all over the place.
  10. Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no
  11. High peaked at 99.1 but heat index peaked at 110.7. This is absolutely brutal weather and no outflows to save us today
  12. We got lucky on on the 2nd and picked up 1.12” but haven’t had anything since. Turned the sprinklers back on
  13. Raleigh rain shield has been reengaged
  14. Yea it’s in no way a primed environment but simply having an active storm out there this year is going to be an atmospheric accomplishment
  15. MDR looks pretty dang active next 10 days. Caribbean is extremely hostile but there looks to be a window over MDR and possibly even north of islands. Could be a situation where anything that forms would have to thread the needle but there may be a path where something gets further west if it tracks north of the islands. Far too soon to tell but the development signal is very high at this point
  16. High of 94, but heat index got to 105. Pretty miserable day. 0.00”
  17. Short to mid-range guidance has definitely trended towards the dry side for much of NC with heat building back in next week. Was really hoping to kill the drought but we might yet start sliding again.
  18. 0.00” here overnight and yesterday. First miss in a long time
  19. No kidding, but hard to complain when we have literally caught every storm last 5 weeks. I was looking forward to some fun thunderstorms this evening though
  20. Picked up 0.03” (1.12” daily and MTD total) more yesterday evening but today has trended drier on models as the boundary sagged a little further south. With all the rain, it might be a blessing if we avoid a tropical system this year as grounds are completely saturated despite long term drought impacts. Earlier this summer I was adamant that we needed a tropical system to ease drought conditions but after the past month, it would likely be too much. What a crazy turnaround
  21. I’ve had 15.58” since July 1. It’s moist out
  22. 1.09” here from several showers and 1 thunderstorm
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