NorthHillsWx

RDU precip shield holds again. Guess it was just under repair during July

A DP of 82 at 4pm is diabolical

9 days straight without rainfall here and, coupled with the heatwave, it has rapidly dried out. Maybe we get in on the MCV action tonight. SPC Bumped it to a level 2 for western half of the state tonight

They bumped the threat level up today for the possibility that a MCV passes through this evening. Level 2 risk for triangle, triad, and foothills/mountains this evening and early overnight. Will be interesting to see if this pans out models all over the place.

At least we have irrigation again

Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no

High peaked at 99.1 but heat index peaked at 110.7. This is absolutely brutal weather and no outflows to save us today

We got lucky on on the 2nd and picked up 1.12” but haven’t had anything since. Turned the sprinklers back on

Raleigh rain shield has been reengaged

2 lemons

Yea it’s in no way a primed environment but simply having an active storm out there this year is going to be an atmospheric accomplishment

MDR looks pretty dang active next 10 days. Caribbean is extremely hostile but there looks to be a window over MDR and possibly even north of islands. Could be a situation where anything that forms would have to thread the needle but there may be a path where something gets further west if it tracks north of the islands. Far too soon to tell but the development signal is very high at this point

High of 94, but heat index got to 105. Pretty miserable day. 0.00”

Short to mid-range guidance has definitely trended towards the dry side for much of NC with heat building back in next week. Was really hoping to kill the drought but we might yet start sliding again.

0.00” here overnight and yesterday. First miss in a long time

No kidding, but hard to complain when we have literally caught every storm last 5 weeks. I was looking forward to some fun thunderstorms this evening though

Picked up 0.03” (1.12” daily and MTD total) more yesterday evening but today has trended drier on models as the boundary sagged a little further south. With all the rain, it might be a blessing if we avoid a tropical system this year as grounds are completely saturated despite long term drought impacts. Earlier this summer I was adamant that we needed a tropical system to ease drought conditions but after the past month, it would likely be too much. What a crazy turnaround

I’ve had 15.58” since July 1. It’s moist out

1.09” here from several showers and 1 thunderstorm

Yep, midlands low country and SE NC keep repetitively missing the rains

13 NC counties now have at least part of the county excluded from any drought. Also in Raleigh, watering restrictions end on Monday. While still in a long-term moderate drought, all short term impacts have been erased. Lake levels continue to improve and hopefully given current trends and outlooks will be almost fully recovered by the fall. What an impressive month for the state. Raleigh is .20” from its all-time wettest July and, according to WRAL, is enjoying its wettest meteorological summer-to-date ever. 14.49” make this the wettest month ever at my location in 8 years of recording and more than 3” more than nearest other month. Some areas in the county just north of my location likely have seen 16-18” of rainfall based on monthly radar estimates, making this easily one of the wettest months ever for some areas of the county especially considering none of this rain was from a tropical event, or all at once

Incredible structure. Clear environment around it too, rare for central NC

Absolutely wild comeback this morning. Textbook ERC and, under pristine conditions it didn't take long go nuclear for a second time in 2 days. What a specimen

This explains what went through this part of Raleigh last night: https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1cTLe5BtS1/?mibextid=wwXIfr

I’ll take this back, I was wrong. That supercell that pushed from VA through here to the coast was legit