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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. NorthHillsWx
    Total whiff by models, but testament to just how hostile the basin is with El Niño roaring
  2. NorthHillsWx
    Seems like the center will pass well south of the big island, but with elevation I’m sure some very strong winds will occur on land
  3. NorthHillsWx
    If anyone’s followed models or honestly just looked at the system and avoided social media it’s been very apparent for days this will be an upper-tier TS or bottom line cat 1 hurricane when it makes its closest approach. Based on what I’ve seen it likely skirts just south of the big island. Nothing shocking or surprising has happened this system has largely followed the forecast, though I agree at present it would seem to be unlikely this reaches hurricane intensity before its closest approach
  4. NorthHillsWx
    98.5 heat index of 109. This is as bad as it gets. 13 days without rain its getting crispy again
  5. NorthHillsWx
    I know it’s always overzealous with the tropics but the recent GFS run shows 4 separate MDR systems in a row including 94L and 92L, the current invests. While Caribbean shear and the TUTT over SW Atlantic persists this active wave could really boost season numbers tho I doubt any get far west or very strong
  6. NorthHillsWx
    Fairly pleasant outside this evening. “Only” made it to 89.6 and heat index never got above 92 with tolerable DPs in the 60s. Tomorrow is back to the oven
  7. NorthHillsWx
    Looks like one of those CAG systems in the Caribbean
  8. NorthHillsWx
    Pretty surprising to see this much MDR activity in a strong nino in August. Heck even some recent Augusts with La Niña couldn’t produce in MDR
  9. NorthHillsWx
    Based on current presentation this might be the rare and infamous single advisory storm
  10. NorthHillsWx
    93L likely became a brief tropical storm overnight based on the LLC seen on visible this morning but since that time convection has been ripped well to east of center. Might be a numbers booster in post season analysis
  11. NorthHillsWx
    RDU precip shield holds again. Guess it was just under repair during July
  12. NorthHillsWx
    A DP of 82 at 4pm is diabolical
  13. NorthHillsWx
    9 days straight without rainfall here and, coupled with the heatwave, it has rapidly dried out. Maybe we get in on the MCV action tonight. SPC Bumped it to a level 2 for western half of the state tonight
  14. NorthHillsWx
    They bumped the threat level up today for the possibility that a MCV passes through this evening. Level 2 risk for triangle, triad, and foothills/mountains this evening and early overnight. Will be interesting to see if this pans out models all over the place.
  15. NorthHillsWx
    At least we have irrigation again
  16. NorthHillsWx
    Think models are seeing just how hostile upper level environment actually is ahead of whatever forms but still a very strong signal for development. Will it be strong or long track? Probably, almost definitely, no
  17. NorthHillsWx
    High peaked at 99.1 but heat index peaked at 110.7. This is absolutely brutal weather and no outflows to save us today
  18. NorthHillsWx
    We got lucky on on the 2nd and picked up 1.12” but haven’t had anything since. Turned the sprinklers back on
  19. NorthHillsWx
    Raleigh rain shield has been reengaged
  20. NorthHillsWx
    2 lemons
  21. NorthHillsWx
    Yea it’s in no way a primed environment but simply having an active storm out there this year is going to be an atmospheric accomplishment
  22. NorthHillsWx
    MDR looks pretty dang active next 10 days. Caribbean is extremely hostile but there looks to be a window over MDR and possibly even north of islands. Could be a situation where anything that forms would have to thread the needle but there may be a path where something gets further west if it tracks north of the islands. Far too soon to tell but the development signal is very high at this point
  23. NorthHillsWx
    High of 94, but heat index got to 105. Pretty miserable day. 0.00”
  24. NorthHillsWx
    Short to mid-range guidance has definitely trended towards the dry side for much of NC with heat building back in next week. Was really hoping to kill the drought but we might yet start sliding again.
  25. NorthHillsWx
    0.00” here overnight and yesterday. First miss in a long time
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