NorthHillsWx

Hurricane models overwhelmingly favor intensification into a hurricane

Hurricane Nate from 2017 is a very similar system to what we have here from upper level setup over the gulf during the same time of year

GFS drives a cat 3 into into Pascagoula

Everywhere but KVAX is back for me!

Now that there’s an invest we will get hurricane models this evening. Overall there’s been a significant uptick overall regarding strength on modeling today tho the AI models are definitely cooking this thing up more than the rest. Despite the overall increase from modeling, intensity ranges for this still include a very sheared lopsided weak system (see Euro). Google seems to really want to develop and move this NE quick which might be out ahead of the modeled shear later in the weekend. That might be a specific trend to watch in terms or timing possibly affecting intensity

On my app (RadarScope) KMOB, KEVX, KEOX, KTLH, and KVAX are all still down

Any idea how long the Gulf radars are expected to be down for? This could be a very bad weekend to not have radar. NWS can still view them but the public cannot.

It is possible. This storm has a runway to attain hurricane status but it not be an ideal environment. There will be westerly shear and dry air impacting the storm to some extent though if this is moving to the NE the shear vector may not be that unfavorable. Also, divergent flow aloft on the east side means this could be a strong, lopsided system. If the surface circulation gets hung up or moves more west it seems (based on ensembles) the shear and dry air win out. At this point we need a center to track before we reach any conclusions on the future environment but it is by no means going to be pristine. We have seen, especially in recent years, storms be able to overcome similar environments while heading NE so I wouldn't write this one off at all even given the look that certainly features westerly shear and continental air impacts at some point. This location is well known for overproducers too this time of year. Will be an interesting week, but at a minimum this looks to be a significant heavy rain event in the deep south and possibly some major drought relief in the Carolinas

One thing to watch is the EPAC cherry. If it becomes strong (like many models are showing) it’s outflow very likely contributes to increased shear in the gulf and could seriously inhibit that system

This one might deserve a thread since it will have at least some level of impact along the gulf coast

The Gulf system has legs

I knew the worst drought areas around the triad were trending down in precipitation but literally to get 0.00” over a large area after a forecast of a widespread 1”+ totals just a couple days out stinks. We have had some rain here but likely ending up <0.40” for the weekend EDIT: heavier shower this morning brought us to 0.41” for the weekend and that looks to be the total

Whatever develops (or doesn’t) in the gulf late week will be the last chance at a hurricane this season

0.33” here as rain wraps up. Not hopeful about getting much more given model trends

Very solid rainfall ongoing here.

Rinse and repeat, rainfall in central NC not going to amount to nearly the totals we were expecting all week: Given the mesoscale and subsequent nrn stream influences noted above, precipitation amounts have trended lower across model guidance in the past 24 hours for cntl NC, particularly over the Piedmont.

Wouldn't that be sumthin... Probably the most pressure packed post-season analysis call ever for a non-impactful storm if it decides whether the entire season really goes without a hurricane or not.

90.6 please please please let this be our last 90-degree day! Really hoping rainfall is widespread and heavy tomorrow night through sunday though I am growing concerned the heaviest rain again sets up south of here with the wedge boundary

Rachel well on its way to becoming *yet another* high end Major hurricane in this ludicrous EPAC season

As we are now in October and with absolutely nothing showing in any modeling, I am folding. For the first time this year I think the odds of not getting a hurricane exceed the odds of seeing a hurricane in the Atlantic basin. I'm going 60/40 odds (no hurricane/hurricane) at this point with only a CAG system as the realistic most likely chance to break the streak. Unbelievable

Near-record highs today and tomorrow look to be replaced with actual fall next week. I hope these are the last 90's of the year, there is a good chance they are

At 2.10" MTD we will finish yet another month well below normal in the rainfall department. In fact, we have finished BN in precip in 12 of the last 13 months at my location (comparing to RDU average monthly totals). Falls Lake which made a huge recovery after the record wet July has tanked and is now more than 5 feet below full pool. Kerr Lake has continued its fall and not sits more than 11 feet below full pool. The fall is typically when reservoirs are at their lowest but these levels are well below expected normals and will set us up poorly for next year unless the pattern changes for the region. I know El Nino SHOULD produce AN precip during the fall and winter across the area, we are at the point now where we need it to produce. Fingers crossed this weekend is the start of the change

I’ll believe it when I see it

91L looks like it developed a surface circulation on visible this morning, though it is highly sheared and looks to remain as such through its existence. Would not shock me if it steals a name and boosts the seasonal NS numbers of this weird season.

Fay is one of the longest lasting storms that failed to reach hurricane intensity I can remember. We’re into the 30’s on NHC advisories. If that convection persists there’s a chance it retains storm status today too