NorthHillsWx

Pretty serious organizational trend ongoing. Would not shock me to see some significant strengthening soon. This might be one we are posting about “thankfully not having more time over water”. Outflow looks well established and storms are clearly aligning the MLC and newly formed SLC. Starting to see winds ramp up on buoy and oil rig obs too

Latest HWRF says our first hurricane of 2026 will make landfall on the Tx/La border about this time tomorrow...

One other thing about this system that lends to the idea of it becoming a TS is frictional convergence and the shape of the coastline. This area of coastline is well known for tightening up weak systems on approach. To me this is a lock for our 5th short lived TS…

I would be shocked if the season didn’t produce a hurricane though I think the odds of an MDR hurricane are pretty low. Gulf and SW Atlantic are the 2 places I’m watching this month and for the rest of the season

Good call for NHC. Center is too broad at this time for a classification and plane hasn’t found any winds over 20 mph but the organization trend warrants PTC. Not far off but also not there yet

Crazy variance across the state in rainfall totals this month

Amazing what 40 kts of shear will do to ya. “Dolly” has passed through the wall of doom and entered a more favorable environment but not much left. Models have backed off again. If something were to happen I’d expect some steady flare up north of the islands today but odds of redevelopment are low

Looks pretty broad/open on south side. That mid level feature looks more impressive than what’s under the hood. This is why NHC waits for solid data before designating systems even close to land. Could see PTC at 11 tho

A light breeze based on that pass

Ghost of Dolly really feeling that shear now

Picked up a staggering 0.01” sending my MTD to 1.52”

Last chance of rain likely for the month today and I’m sitting about 3” below normal (just 1.52”). If we don’t get a flood today (unlikely) then that will be 11 of last 12 months BN precipitation here. Only saving grace is we received about 4 months worth of rain in July!

We’ll see what it looks like tomorrow morning, it is just now moving into the TUTT. It actually found a microscopic break in the worst shear last 2 days but it is heading into a wall of 30-40 kt shear my guess is NHC is banking on not much surviving, we will see

Dolly gets the axe and then immediately says “hold my beer”

Shield mostly held but had a couple hours of light rain. 0.15” brings MTD to 1.51”

Holding strong so far. Just 0.01” here

The aren't, they are calling for post-tropical aka open wave

Pretty wild the NHC had to include this in its discussion this morning: The timing of the use of the name Dolly for this storm is purely coincidental. Tropical storm and hurricane names for the North Atlantic Basin originate from six pre-determined rotating lists established by the World Meteorological Organization Region IV Hurricane Committee. The name Dolly replaced Diana after the 1990 hurricane season and was first used in 1996.

The relief from the heat was nice, as were the low DPs. Back up into the 70's with current DP. Looks like another extended period AN just as football season kicks off, joy

Funny, getting classified as the shear leaves it a naked swirl, whereas it was likely a TS most of the night and looked much, much better

I think the biggest difference is, during those recent dead August's, the primary limiting culprit was abnormally high SAL. That hasn't been an issue this year, yet the basin has remained so hostile in the upper levels that even strong waves with solid moisture envelopes have failed to develop. The cap got blown off in those previous seasons because SAL decreased heading into September. This year, there are no indications the shear will subside (but for windows as your forecast notes) and it won't be so much of a "back loaded" season more than a wave finding a small window during peak climo. Also, there is some science to back Nina seasons being more back-loaded than Nino seasons. With almost 0 activity to this point, just few storms might appear to make this look back loaded, but I seriously doubt we see the cap come off like in recent years with frequent high-end development through September or even beyond. With Nino strengthening, I actually could see an early end to the season as well. It only takes 1, and with water temp anomalies off the SE coast running about the highest in the basin, that is of concern, but it is going to take perfect timing and a thread the needle type event to get a system through to take advantage. The rest of the basin is likely cooked besides some low-end development, like 96L

I'm not quite sure how 96L hasn't been classified as at least a depression. It looks better formed than several TS's from earlier this season on the morning visible and one would think after how close it was on ASCAT yesterday and given marked improvement since, it would definitely qualify as a tropical cyclone. As for intensity, it is probably a TS given information yesterday had some TS wind barbs and it has only improved since. Me thinks this gets named at 11...

Low of 62.9 this morning, my coolest morning low since June

Morning visible reveals some decent low level spin, showing this has developed a surface low. However, convection has waned this morning and remains extremely disorganized. NHC has dropped odds to 60% of developing and it seems it has about a 36 hour window and conditions are marginal even during this time. 3 straight cherries failing to develop might be a first that I can recall, if 96L truly doesn't get classified as at least a TD. I do not believe in the "survivor" scenarios some ensembles show in the SW Atlantic. The TUTT this thing is going to run into is going to annihilate an open wave (30-40 kts shear) I would be shocked if anything gets through to develop. Just shocking how hostile the basin is from a shear perspective. We knew ENSO was going to be against development most of the season but seeing these extremely strong waves and a very active wave train with more limited SAL than recent seasons and not having a single one find a gap is wild. For perspective, if you took the background state of the Atlantic in any of the past few seasons and had the same SAL conditions and wave activity we are seeing with this year, I think the MDR would be setting records.

79/57 at 12:40. Amazing