NorthHillsWx
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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx
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With temps crashing into 20s I have a feeling this gets an advisory for a decent chunk of NC due to travel issues Thursday morning even if accumulations are light
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12k NAM big hit triangle NE into SE Virginia
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Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve been NAM’d
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This is accurate lol. This will be one I’d consider a bonus event- if you get snow great, if not oh well. Not gonna make up for the wake county miss even if we got the best band but at same point this could have a few surprises and maybe someone gets a significant localized snowfall
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First true “thaw” day in well over a week. 50 degrees, all snow is gone from sun, working on the last of it in shaded areas now. My strategically reinforced and shade placed snow piles have some staying power though
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February snow generally sucks unless it’s a coastal with heavy rates or at night. Even last years storm didn’t stick on roads until sunset even though it was in the mid 20s
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This should be a fun one to radar watch tomorrow evening. Someone could get a pretty decent band out of this and some decent accumulation, but probably won’t where know until it sets up. Think anyone in northern half of NC has a chance
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Think you’re in a decent spot to get something from this
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12z CMC solid for southern Va
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It’s going to be extremely band-dependent with isolated accumulation but whoever gets a band can probably do 2 maybe 3”. Agreed, think border counties/Southern Va best shot. Will not be widespread accumulation anywhere
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Someone gets 4” and a couple streets over flurries lol
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Lumberton below zero?!? WOW We bottomed out at 24.2 last night. I’m assuming clouds moved in early and cleared out before moving back in, some pretty wild spikes and dips from 7 pm through 5 am
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NAM super amped, pretty legit storm NE NC and SE VA
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Happy for you! That band was great but we only had it for 1 hour. Eastern side of county did better. Actually made it worse for those of us who got shafted by it
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Im f*ing exhausted but lets run this back. Thought we had a break from model watching, this winter has been nuts. Raleigh needs the 18z euro like peanut butter needs jelly
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41.5 here, honestly shocked we’ve held onto snow cover. Guess the permafrost is helping us
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WxUSAF's weak ass frontal passage thing.
NorthHillsWx replied to dailylurker's topic in Mid Atlantic
Raleigh NC last weekend. Sorry, lurking -
Yea they have. Recent runs have been slightly less positive tilt though and we’re seeing a slower progression/more backing of the precip bc of it
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Getting close to something more significant there…
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AI Models look really good
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GFS also improved at 500. Much more expansive precip
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If current trends continue someone will get EURO’d tonight lol
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This is a little different than the cold chasing moisture event a couple weeks ago. In this case the front has already passed through and there’s a secondary LP developing in the colder air. The airmass isn’t nearly as cold as the last couple we’ve used and it’s always delayed over the mountains but I wouldn’t call this a “classic” case of cold chasing moisture
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From RAH. Improved storm signal but climo favors limited accumulation due to nature of cold chasing precip: Both deterministic and ensemble guidance of the GFS/ECMWF/CMC have gotten wetter, which has resulted in more ensemble members producing measurable snow. The best chance would be across the north. However, this is a case of cold air "chasing" the precipitation, which typically results in limited snowfall if any across our area. Still certainly worth monitoring.
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Nice improvement at 500 mb on ICON, surface didn’t change much
