dallen7908

Our hoped for Valentine's Day storm is showing up (in the 10-day median) well south of Cape Cod - work to do

Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land

Still a fairly impressive T fall on the GFS for DCA. It's just from 56 to 40 degrees (6 to 7 AM tomorrow) as opposed to the 51 to 28 that was forecast 48 hours ago. ... but yes with just one minor wobble (yesterday's 12 UT run was a bit colder at the surface than the 6 UT run) the GFS has trended warmer at DCA for 9 straight simulations.

I like your plot better than mine; day 10-16 for the win

I agree but us east-of-the_fall liners must keep in mind that each event is unique and simply dismissing each event at a glance because of our climatology is not forecasting, has no skill, and will eventually come back to haunt us I think an ensemble of regional models may be the way to go now to examine the profiles - certainly wouldn't trust any one simulation of an operational mesoscale model as they are bears to initialize

Each run of the GFS over the last several cycles has trended warmer at the surface for DCA. Freezing rain based on Cobb algorithm 00 UT yesterday: Freezing rain with a 3 AM start 7 PM end; 0.60" with 0.27/0.23/0.10" falling with temperatures <26, 26-29, 29-32 06 UT yesterday; Freezing rain with a 5 AM start 7 PM end 0.49" with 0.00/0.38/0.11 falling with T < 26, 26-29, 29-32 12 UT yesterday; Freezing rain with a 7 AM start 3PM end 0.24" with 0.00/0.08/0.16 falling with T < 26, 26-29, 29-32 18 UT ?? 00 UT today; Freezing rain with 9 AM start 3 PM end 0.28" with 0.00/0.00/0.28 falling with T < 26, 26-29, 29-32 06 UT today All rain although temperature falls to 32.2 by 2 PM when rain ends

The GFS is walking towards the Euro as the Euro runs toward the GFS. Numbers below are for DCA and GFS simulations initialized at 00, 06, and 12 UT Freezing Rain commences: 3 AM, 5 AM, and 7 AM and ends at 7 PM, 7 PM, 3 PM Total freezing rain: 0.60, 0.49, 0.24" % of freezing rain with T < 26: 45%, 0%, 0% % of freezing rain with T < 29: 83%, 75%, 33%

Perhaps some give on the GFS side too. Verbatim, the surface layer push of cold air to DCA on the GFS is weaker for the 06 UT initialization than 00 UT according to Cobb output. For DCA, the decrease in temperatures from 1 to 7 AM on the 4th is now 51.0 to 28.3 degrees; it was 36.2 to 25.4 degrees at 00 UT For DCA, the onset of freezing rain is pushed back to 5 AM on the 4th from 3 AM. The total amount of freezing rain decreases from 0.60 to 0.49 The amount of freezing rain with sub 26 degree temperatures decreases from 0.27 to 0.00.

Well then perhaps you should change your user name. I don't recall a major ice storm here since 1994. Much different story for many others in this forum This is meaningless but one of our biggest snow falls in the last 30-years was forecast to be freezing rain 5 days out.

Cobb output from GFS at DCA shows the freezing rain beginning at 10Z (5 AM on Friday) on the 4th and ending at 00Z on the 5th (7 PM on Friday). 0.4" with the temperature below 29 degrees. 0.1" with the temperature below 26 degrees. At Dulles the freezing rain would begin at 8Z (3 AM on Friday) and end at the same time as DCA. 0.6" with temperatures of <29 degrees; almost 0.5" with temperatures below 26 degrees.

1/3 7.5 1/7 2.25 1/16 2.25 1/28 0.5 12.5" for the year - likely just below the median for College Park with 6 weeks of chances to go

First flurries in College Park

A primary purpose of the off hours runs is to provide initial and boundary conditions for European mesoscale models.

Who knows If this still exists as the weekly cycle in aerosol emissions is weaker than it used to be

Earlier today when I saw the 4" for your location, I was wondering if you had sent them a topographical shape file

It's a humbling reminder of how poor many drivers in this area are - that they feel the need to put out a "Percent Chance of 0.1 Snow" product.

996 L over Tallahassee at 12 UT Sunday (Current run) 1006L over Jacksonville at 12 UT Sunday (00 UT run)

The EPO goes "way" negative week 2. Similar GEFS plot.

Good point - bad post by me. Why is the 12z GFS a dream in the extended? Verbatim, most of our area gets ~1" of snow during the next 384 hours. I assume you like the upper air pattern etc.

Where did all of our model snow go? Clockwise from upper left (18 UT yesterday, 00 UT today, 06 UT today, 12 UT today) Through 12 UT next Friday; GFS

1/7/22 2.25" 9.75" for the season

"south" College Park 1/3/22 7.5"

Cobb output for DCA from GFS (This would be one wild hour). Be skeptical, very skeptical ... YYMMDD FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF 220103/12Z 24 02010KT 29.4F SNOW 15:1| 4.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.315 https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kdca

Trend at 700 hPa from the GEM; 36 hours ago DC was caught in the middle between the southern and northern streams. Now it is (forecast to be) well within the southwest flow associated with the SS. Winds over MO have shifted from northwesterly to north-northwesterly emphasizing the strengthening of the vorticity max; allowing for southwesterly rather than westerly flow to its east

From the Fearless Forecast on White Grass's home page: "While all-time records are never open-court slam dunks, our 3.0 inch lowest Canaan Valley 78-year record December snowfall record is truly in jeopardy of being broken this year. I anticipate very little if any more snow between now and when the books close for this month in 5 days on December 31." I guess I should have expected this when what I wanted for XMAS was a post-holiday trip to the Valley. Hopefully, "my" jinx ends before my planned XC skiing trip to upstate New York over MLK. I have the Laurentian mountains in mind for next winter ... Conditions will be wonderful today at the Center; trails 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, Montée St-Hilaire, 11, 12, 13, 14 North, 31, loops 36-24 and Pont Georges and 25 will be available and groomed for both classic and skating. 5 Fat Bike run and 2 snowshoe paths will also be open.