dallen7908

To get a better understanding of how the circulation might change in a climate check out this review paper. Good graphics. Models predict more El Niño-like weather but observations disagree. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00301-2 On the future zonal contrasts of equatorial Pacific climate: Perspectives from Observations, Simulations, and Theories

Records were also broken or tied near where I grew up in Iowa. Many long-time Iowa residents will remember that legendary event when pipes froze, cars died, and roads cracked apart in the cold. On 02/03/1996 the Osborne Conservation Center southwest of Elkader, Iowa hit -47 degrees, tying the all-time state record that was set in 1912.

I've been following Quebec City's weather all winter, and it is forecast to be -31C there this weekend. Of course the first full day I'm there (next Wednesday) the forecast is 4C and rain ....

It's ironic (but only to me) that 1972-1973 was such an horrific winter here because the April 8-9 storm of that year is why I became a meteorologist. Fond memories of our dad roping my two siblings and I together as we searched for and fed our livestock. https://www.desmoinesregister.com/picture-gallery/news/2019/04/09/iowa-weather-forecast-blizzard-of-1973-april-snowstorm-snow-stranded-motorists-farmers-livestock/3415449002/ Hopefully that late February pattern will produce. Southeast ridges and northeast troughs can produce ... and if I squint I can see split flow as opposed to just a southwest trough.

Would you believe the Euro snow band extends from Norman, OK to Newark DE but is never more than 30 km in north-south extent below 2500 feet?

If we don't score during the next 10 days. CPC is still onboard for a rocking late February and hopefully early March. Best not to read their discussion of week 3 and early week 4. Yes a lot of qualifiers! Should the MJO's propagation continue into phases 8 and 1 along with the prior forcing from phases 5, 6, and 7, there is a possibility that troughing may try to establish over the eastern CONUS during the end of Week 4 in conjunction with the development of a negative NAO, which could lead to colder temperatures across the East and Southeast.

EPS not on-board wrt hour 156 snow

For illustration purposes only. Look at the split flow. Unfortunately, no interaction between the streams so we are left with surface lows associated with the southern and northern streams. ... and the cold air bottled up well to our north

This is how most of these threads start - with the best look of the season in the day 10-15 period! Fortunately, climatology is a weaker enemy than usual in early February. ... and it's great to finally see some cold temperatures in the northeast.

That's encouraging (I think). Hopefully, it doesn't get waylaid during its torturous journey through 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 7 before reaching the promised land post-Valentine's day

I spend way too much time checking nordic conditions in New England and Quebec. Here are the latest for Sugarloaf Good morning all, Due to the snowstorm we are continuing to groom our trails. Trails are expected to open at 10AM this morning. Please check back then for groomed trails. We will groom and set classic tracks on. Warning hut, 7 bridges, snowbrook, sunny breeze, moose pond loop, inferno. We will be checking on bobcat alley and the highland trail in hopes we can have them open for this weekend. We will keep you posted on progress, and update you on our plans for this weekend. Ice rink will be closed until the snow has stopped falling and we have cleared it off. Thank you all! Be safe, think snow! ❄️ ~01/20/23 07:11 am

In at least one metric, the 00 UT EPS run wasn't that much worse than yesterday's encouraging 12 UT run. Metric: Percent of EPS members giving College Park at least 4" of snow (10:1 rule) during the following 15 days. 00 UT Jan 15th run: 9.8% 12 UT Jan 15th run: 17.6% 00 UT Jan 16th run: 21.6% 12 UT Jan 16th run 17.6% 00UT Jan 17th run 21.6% 12 UT Jan 17th run 35.3% 00 UT Jan 18th run 33.3%

https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=1rEfAAAAIBAJ&sjid=PdcEAAAAIBAJ&pg=1680,5002132&dq=march+snowstorm+1960&hl=en https://www.gloucestercitynews.net/clearysnotebook/2010/08/i_remember_when.html

We used to have a first 1" snow fall at BWI contest within the Department of Meteorology at UMCP. In 1997-1998 we finally gave up tracking in late February only to find out later that BWI cashed in sometime in March. No such luck at College Park. I think that was the last year of the contest - not sure if it was because of lack of snow or interest. Clearly this group would never has missed that March storm. I'm pretty sure we won't need to wait that long this year - but ... who knows. I did see my first flurries (more than one but never more than one at the same time) over the winter this past Saturday

Weenie rule No. ? Why do you believe resolution is crucial here?

Hope so, especially since the ensembles are run off of an older version of the GFS.

Another contributing factor to our decrease in snowfall is the success of measures put into place to reduce sulfate emissions by power plants. Fifteen years ago, a sizable amount of the warming associated with greenhouse gases was offset by cooling by aerosols - no longer the case. As a side the decrease in aerosols may also play a role in the disappearance of the weekend effect. While I was never fully on-board with the idea, the rule held that large east-coast snow storms were much more likely on weekends than weekdays. If true, a possible explanation is day-of-the-week variations in aerosol emissions. Aerosols act as cloud-condensation nuclei with the number of aerosols affecting the rate and consequently the altitude at which cloud droplets turn into rain drops or graupel. Today, day-of-the week variations still occur but their amplitude is much weaker. Finally, while warming will continue for the foreseeable future, a sizable portion of our poor snow prospects the last several years may be due to decadal oscillations in the Pacific. Years with 20-30" of snow in the DC area may not be extinct. Each of the last 7 winters I've tracked the weather in DC and also in a New England location that I visit later in the winter. This year I'm going to the Winter Carnival in Quebec City. Last year I was in the southern Adirondacks the day of the MLK storm. Hopefully going all of the way to the Laurentian mountains will prove to be unnecessary but we'll see. Like many here I'm still hoping for snow next weekend and later this winter. May those proclaiming the death of the weekend effect, Alberta clippers, as well as packed isotherms on the north side of storms be dead wrong.

No but please send one if you are jumping into a 3 foot drift - make that snow drift

24-hours later at 12 UT next Saturday, the difference in low locations between the two simulations is less stark as most of the lows have jumped to the coast (re-developed). Unfortunately, yesterday's cluster at 12 UT on Saturday was off of the Carolina coast while today's cluster is off of the Virginia coast. We could know more soon as ensembles skill improves dramatically between day 8 and day 5.

On what date should we expect to have received 50% of our annual snowfall. I've always gone with January 22 but am curious when the actual date is ... based on the date above like it seems likely it is even later than the 22nd.

Typically, when we are waiting for a pattern transition in the 10-14 day range, discussion of possible stratospheric help in the 2-4 week time frame is filling these pages (for better or worse, usually the latter). Is there a reason we're not hearing about the possibility of stratospheric help yet this winter? Too early in the season? Not in the cards? Link too weak?

The problem with the mean is that the distribution is becoming increasingly skewed because the mean is low and bounded by zero. N=136 is a healthy sample size.

"The Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical guidance including the GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, JMA, and experimental guidance from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) multi-model ensemble (MME) prediction systems, with additional considerations for Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) states, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), decadal climate trends, and the evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast ." From last Friday's CPC forecast. While pattern chasing should be be looking at the JMA or MME too?