dallen7908

EPS College Park thru Nov 17 0" 12/51 <1" 16/51 1" 7/51 2" 10/51 3" 3/51 4" 1/51 5" 2/51

... Isn't there a way the NWS could pinpoint their warnings a bit better? During the last 3-4 weeks, I've been under 5 or 6 severe thunderstorm warnings and have not received a drop of rain from 4 of them

I know most of you know this ... but as most of the recent plots show composite reflectivity Keep in mind that composite reflectivity shows the maximum reflectivity in the vertical column (i.e., the extent of virga). It should not be confused with base reflectivity, which is a truer representation of where it may snow.

EPS now gives BWI (Andrews AFB) a 14% (26%) chance of > 1"

BWI chances of >1, 3, 6, and 12" according to EPS

While the EPS chance for > 1 inch at BWI is still 0, the chances for DC increased from 2 to 6%.

% of EPS ensembles giving BWI > 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet through early next week. 2% of the ensembles (i.e., one) give DC > 1"

Percent chance of at least 1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow through early next week at BWI according to the EPS

EPS Percent chances that BWI exceeds 1, 3, 6, and 12" through early next week

EPS BWI

Always best to look at the median

Which is more likely, another December like this one or another February like last one? My hunch is that February 2015's weather was less abnormal but haven't run the statistics. Thoughts?

Remember Ian's article about how uncommon 1" and above snows are becoming at DCA. Well in today's Washington Post there is a non-technical article by Reid Wilson on California's drought that speculates that melting of Arctic ice may be 'contributing to a slowing of the jet stream contributing to colder wetter weather in the eastern U.S. and more persistently dry conditions in the west". I guess for every winner there is a loser. Kind of reminds me of spring 2010, when several hopeful posters here speculated that 2009/2010 could become the new norm or last winter when several scientific articles predicted that melting of Arctic ice could be responsible for warmer eastern U.S. winters and colder European winters.