dallen7908

Its maddening that (EURO_ensemble-3")*2/3 has provided a reasonable 24-hour snow fall forecast for College Park - 3 storms running. The operational has provided similar results. Guess its the Euro cold-bias at work. Of course, the ensemble mean should never be used for a forecast. At short range, use the operational forecast; at long range use the ensemble median ... and sigh adjust for your local climatology

For DC, the "always reliable" precip type indicator shows snow beginning just before 00 UT with mixing near DC from 7-11 UT.

Assuming a 17/1 ratio per Kuchera, DC-area could get close to 5". Limiting the upper bound to a more realistic 12/1 yields 3-4". Of course, temperatures may reach the mid 30s on Thursday afternoon during the lull. So we could lose a bit due to melting by the time of the 2nd wave, which is forecast to drop 0.2-0.3" of snow per hour - for several hours

The following is from the Capital Weather Gang's 5:31 AM bulletin. Any idea as to why their level of confidence is "low"? Is it simply the fact that the precipitation isn't expected to arrive until very early Thursday? Is it concerns about the precipitation type? Suppression? the UHI? To my untrained eye it seems like this system is more straightforward than most. It is mostly overrunning and doesn't rely on an on-time phase, dynamic cooling, or a well positioned CCB. I mean if they use "low" here what adjectives are left for most storms. Thursday should start with more snow, but some wintry mix remains possible, especially south of the District. We may see a precipitation break for a few hours in the afternoon as highs hold only in the 30s. Thursday night should see precipitation pick back up again. It’s most likely to be in the form of snow as temperatures fall into the 20s, but mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out. Confidence: Low

Through 12 UT on the 13th here are the EPS snow/sleet percentiles for College Park: 90%: 12 80% 11 70% 10 60% 9 50% 8 40% 7 30% 6 20% 6 10% 4

I should take the spotters course. No reports from P.G. county for this storm and at least one other this winter. Of course, if I take the course they'll probably tell me not to bother reporting amounts from a typical P.G. storm, i.e., 0.1 or 0.3". https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

Before "we" get too excited let's see how much of this "occurred" this morning! It's certainly been a rewarding winter for many - Hope the immediate D.C. and Baltimore areas can join the fun later this week.

12/16 0.6" 1/25 0.4" 1/31 2.0" 2/1 0.25" 2/2 1.25" 2/7 0.1" 4.6" for the season

We got 1/8" of snow before changing back to rain about 15 minutes ago. Hopefully, it'll change back to snow.

Just changed to rain/snow mix 36 degrees (College Park)

If the ECMWF is truth, College Park is looking at a 4 AM start with perhaps an inch per hour from 6 am till noon; temperatures holding steady through the morning at a workable 33 before touching 40 mid-afternoon - coldest morning of the year on Monday (wouldn't take much here, I haven't seen less than 23)

So you're saying no storm-specific thread until Friday afternoon? The northern tier folks may disagree but the GFSv16 was close to a win for all of us.

12/16 0.6" 1/25 0.4" 1/31 2.0" 2/1 0.25" 2/2 1.25" 4.5" for the season

My thought that our window might end for 7-10 days after this storm seems dead wrong. With respect to popping ... You'd make a fine closer in baseball. Some of us require more time to recover after being ghosted at the altar. Others live north of us. Off to the other forum, flurries (and not just a stray flurry or two) have commenced in College Park

Perhaps this is in the small print: Realized snow = (ECMWF-3)*0.667 > 0

College Park: Since yesterday noon, I've added a 1/4" of snow, a 1/4" of snow/sleet and perhaps 0.05" of freezing rain. 2 1/4" of snow/sleet overall (snuck into the lower edge of the CWG bust category with time to spare). Currently, freezing drizzle and 31/32.

I've received almost 1 3/4" so far; perfect for a morning jog and a few snowballs. Started working on a snowman but the ratio of leaves to snow forced me to abandon ... for now

I often say I'd loved to live in a world where the 10-day Euro forecast was reality; well I'd also love to live in a world where Roger Smith's forecasts verified with 100% accuracy. I swear he converts from cm to inches by multiplying by 2.5. I've also promised to get myself an "RGEM" T-shirt if things go well on Monday

Through 7 AM Monday in my backyard although temporal distribution may be relevant for many (note times across the top are EST)

12/16 0.6" 1/25 0.4" 1" for the season

Snow TV still possible on Thursday. Nearly unanimous EPS agreement that next Monday will be interesting. An exciting end to our window? Weenie caution: Numbers are 24-hour snow/sleet totals for every-other 12-hour period - so divide by 2 if summing over time. Colors show 24-hour average snow/sleet totals for 6-hour periods

Certainly not a sure thing; the EPS snow/sleet mean for College Park in the hours before December's storm was 3 inches.

Final update as our ~10-day window is upon us. Good luck everyone EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 17 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 From left to right 12 UT January 17 to 12 UT January 25 100th percentile: 21 33 20 24 24 27 22 19 16 24 21 21 14 14 24 20 20 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 13 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 8 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 7 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3 3 1st percentile: 0 0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5 0.7 2

Penultimate update as our window is nigh; about half of the total for the last run are for this weekend's possible storm, which I had kind of forgot about until yesterday morning when I checked my "trusty" weather app and saw that my snow chances (percent) for next weekend were higher than either today/tomorrow or Thursday. EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 16 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 11 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 7 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 6 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 6 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 5 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3 3

EPS members snow/sleet totals (inches) for the last 15 (00 and 12 UT) runs (College Park) through 00 UT Feb 3 90th percentile: 9 15 12 15 12 16 18 12 13 10 10 11 9 10 10 80th percentile: 6 10 11 9 10 12 13 9 11 7 6 8 6 8 9 70th percentile: 6 6 9 8 7 11 11 8 9 6 3 6 5 6 6 60th percentile: 4 5 8 6 6 7 9 7 7 4 2 5 5 5 5 50th percentile: 3 4 6 5 4 6 7 6 6 2 1 4 4 4 5 40th percentile: 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 6 2 0.8 4 3 3 4 30th percentile: 2 1 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 0.9 0.6 3 3 2 4 20th percentile: 0.7 0.6 3 2 2 3 3 4 3 0.5 0.4 2 2 1 3 10th percentile: 0.5 0.3 1 1 1 1 3 3 1 0 0.1 1 2 1 3