dallen7908

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/101/6/bamsD190014.xml ok, only tangentially related, but if you're in the mood to read about some real cold - and Laura Ingalls Wilder - check out the link.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html The amplified mid-level pattern leads to a generally confident precipitation forecast, with better model agreement compared to yesterday regarding a more suppressed storm track in the East. Therefore, the highest chances for above-normal precipitation are highlighted across the Gulf Coast and coastal Southeast. However, given the cold air in place, there is some concern for wintry weather over some of these areas, as evidenced by the deterministic 12z GFS and ECMWF.

The control and 3 or 4 other members also show a MECS around the 23rd - so it's not just resolution driving the large snow amounts.

If summing, remember to divide by 2 as these are 24-hour precipitation values for six-hour periods with every other one shown.

I was in Seattle for the AMS meeting that week and recall that one of the lead CWG writers missed at least a half-day of the meeting because of the storm.

Correct, my statement was misleading. There are indeed two threat windows. The 6" threshold is only reached after the second.

Big game hunters should be excited about this map -Unfortunately, the best "threat" appears to be days 13-15 - see Bob Chill's caution about the decrease in predictability as we shift away from a blocking regime. Also, the 8-14 day outlook shows a confidence level of only 2 of 5 for the period.

I grew up about 40 miles northeast of Waterloo. 1977 was the coolest January in the history of Waterloo, Iowa. The average daily high temperature was 11.7 °F, and the average low was -11.9 °F.

EPS Signal for the 20th - 22nd is still pretty weak. Note: Numbers show 24-hour snow fall totals for every other six-hour period Coloring shows 24-hour snow fall totals every six-hours.

Certainly fun searching for the yard stick.

Is it just me or have the CWG write ups been "dumbed down" since last year?

Both the 06 UTC GFS and ECWMF have the snow reaching DC by 11 PM but warm-advection snow often starts an hour or so before forecast. ... but go with the NWS as they look at more information than the above.

College Park area also flirting ...

Stolen from an add by Startorialist "Cheers to a new year, and a new orbit! This year, earth reached perihelion — our closest approach to the Sun — on January 4th at 8:22:32 AM EST." Wonder how that will affect this weekend's storm!