dallen7908

Not quite what you're looking for ... but ...

at least? StnID: kdca Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 250218/1300Z 1 32009KT 23.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1400Z 2 31011KT 24.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1500Z 3 30011KT 24.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1600Z 4 30011KT 25.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1700Z 5 30011KT 26.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1800Z 6 30011KT 27.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250218/1900Z 7 29010KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2000Z 8 30010KT 28.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2100Z 9 30009KT 28.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2200Z 10 31008KT 27.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2300Z 11 32007KT 25.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0000Z 12 33007KT 23.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/0100Z 13 34007KT 22.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0200Z 14 33007KT 21.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0300Z 15 34007KT 20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0400Z 16 33006KT 19.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0500Z 17 33006KT 18.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0600Z 18 33007KT 17.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/0700Z 19 33006KT 17.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0800Z 20 33006KT 17.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0900Z 21 33006KT 16.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1000Z 22 33005KT 16.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1100Z 23 33005KT 15.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1200Z 24 33005KT 16.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/1300Z 25 33006KT 17.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1400Z 26 32006KT 18.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1500Z 27 33006KT 19.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1600Z 28 33005KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1700Z 29 33005KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1800Z 30 33005KT 22.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/1900Z 31 33005KT 22.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/2000Z 32 32003KT 22.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/2100Z 33 VRB01KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/2200Z 34 VRB01KT 20.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 250219/2300Z 35 VRB02KT 21.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 250220/0000Z 36 VRB01KT 21.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/0100Z 37 33003KT 21.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 16:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 250220/0200Z 38 36005KT 21.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 250220/0300Z 39 36009KT 21.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 18:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 250220/0400Z 40 01008KT 21.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 250220/0500Z 41 02006KT 21.8F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 250220/0600Z 42 02005KT 22.0F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 18:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/0700Z 43 02004KT 22.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 18:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 250220/0800Z 44 01005KT 22.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 18:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 250220/0900Z 45 36005KT 22.4F SNOW 18:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 18:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 250220/1000Z 46 36006KT 22.4F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 18:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0 250220/1100Z 47 35006KT 22.5F SNOW 24:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 19:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 250220/1200Z 48 36006KT 22.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 19:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/1300Z 49 36006KT 23.1F SNOW 21:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 19:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 250220/1400Z 50 35007KT 23.6F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 19:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 250220/1500Z 51 34007KT 23.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 19:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 250220/1600Z 52 34008KT 24.2F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 19:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 250220/1700Z 53 33010KT 24.2F SNOW 24:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 19:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0 250220/1800Z 54 32010KT 23.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 19:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/1900Z 55 32010KT 24.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 18:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 250220/2000Z 56 32011KT 24.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 18:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0

While the median forecast snow/sleet from the ECMWF EPS is about 0.1" for most of us, the 90th PCTL outcome shows the 2" line just southeast of many of us.

I know you're joking, but I believe it trained on selected years from the 40-year ERA5 reanalysis, which covered 1979 - 2018. A reanalysis blends model output with observations. The resolution of the training data set is 1 x 1 degrees, so relatively coarse.

Almost 2" here as of 6

Just fell below freezing here (31.9) and on cue, despite the disconnect between air temperature and the surface, the driveway is beginning to cave. Moderate snow.

Yes, the current sun angle of 32.6 degrees at my location and time is more than 11 degrees higher than it would have been on the 21st of December at the same time.

The precipitation distribution wobbled back to what it looked like in the 00 UTC run.

https://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kdca Here is a site that a few of you may not be aware of. It is useful for determining the timing of precipitation onset, examining rates, and looking at model temperatures from the NAM and GFS. For example, the unrealistic snow amounts from 12-km NAM are not just due to its convective algorithm but are partly due to the low temperatures it is forecasting.

Biased a bit high because it counts sleet as snow?

Homemade.

Percent of EPS members giving the Laurel area at least 12" (dash-dot), 6" (dash), 3" (dotted), and 1" (solid) of snow/sleet during the 9-14 day period before 00 UTC February 15.

On a more uplifting note: "February 5th is National Weatherperson's Day. The day commemorates the birth of John Jeffries in 1744. Jeffries, one of Americas first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston in 1774 and he took the first balloon observation in 1784. This is a day to recognize the men and women who collectively provide Americans with the best weather, water, and climate forecasts and warning services of any nation."

Day 8 - 15 has potential. Note first plot shows percent of ensembles with >1" of snow/sleet/ice, while latter shows pct > 6" ...

Sorry for the confusion, these rankings only consider snow that falls during the fall and early winter (through January 31). I'll update at the end of February.