dallen7908

This might come as a surprise to us weather weenies as we want 14 day forecasts to be quite accurate but April 1st snow storms are very rare. Thus, there are two competing forces here, and since the rareness of a 12” snowfall in late March / early April is greater than the accuracy of a 13-day forecast, there is still good chance that we may not get that 12” snow fall a fortnight hence.

Dr no ensembles say likely at least if you look at the Sunday-Monday time period.

Not dead yet. EPS still has one member (of 51) giving the DC area >+ 3" of snow/sleet during the next 10 days.

According to "me", Baltimore's winter through February is the 71st best of 132 winters (47th PCTL). So far, it has had 29 days with mean temperatures of freezing or below, 12.7" of snow, and 12 days with at least an inch on the ground. DC's winter is 66th best of 132 winters (51st PCTL). So far it has had 20 days with mean temperatures of freezing or below, 14.9" of snow, and 13 days with 1" or more of snow on the ground. Hope you're enjoying such a mediocre (near the median) winter. baltimore Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 1 2009-2010 46.0 77.0 37.5 35.0 195.5 A++ 100 2 2002-2003 54.0 55.5 19.2 37.0 165.7 A++ 99 3 1904-1905 59.0 41.8 5.4 56.0 162.2 A++ 98 4 1960-1961 48.0 46.5 11.6 49.0 155.1 A+ 98 5 1995-1996 42.0 54.9 18.3 26.0 141.2 A 97 6 1917-1918 58.0 34.9 6.0 39.0 137.9 A 96 7 1898-1899 41.0 49.5 11.9 29.0 131.4 A- 95 8 1903-1904 68.0 23.9 1.0 34.0 126.9 A- 95 9 1921-1922 30.0 44.8 19.5 28.0 122.3 A- 94 10 1933-1934 43.0 35.6 5.4 36.0 120.0 A- 93 11 1978-1979 38.0 42.5 13.4 25.0 118.9 B+ 92 12 1935-1936 44.0 30.1 2.0 41.0 117.1 B+ 92 13 1966-1967 40.0 40.9 11.1 25.0 117.0 B+ 91 14 1963-1964 41.0 38.2 10.1 24.0 113.3 B+ 90 15 1977-1978 56.0 25.8 3.4 22.0 107.2 B 89 16 1965-1966 41.0 32.8 9.1 20.0 102.9 B 89 17 2013-2014 47.0 26.9 4.7 21.0 99.6 B 88 18 1957-1958 39.0 29.3 9.3 21.0 98.6 B 87 19 1981-1982 47.0 24.8 1.1 25.0 97.9 B 86 20 1962-1963 53.0 17.8 0.0 27.0 97.8 B 86 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 21 1934-1935 28.0 29.5 7.5 32.0 97.0 B 85 22 1982-1983 23.0 35.6 19.5 18.0 96.1 B 84 23 1939-1940 36.0 21.8 1.0 37.0 95.8 B- 83 24 1944-1945 35.0 18.4 2.0 40.0 95.4 B- 83 25 1909-1910 37.0 30.7 5.2 22.0 94.9 B- 82 26 1924-1925 29.0 23.0 6.0 36.0 94.0 B- 81 27 1919-1920 46.0 16.8 0.0 30.0 92.8 B- 80 28 1999-2000 31.0 25.9 10.6 23.0 90.5 B- 80 29 1910-1911 34.0 26.8 3.1 26.0 89.9 B- 79 30 2015-2016 23.0 32.6 20.5 13.0 89.1 B- 78 31 1947-1948 37.0 23.4 0.7 26.0 87.1 B- 77 32 1976-1977 57.0 11.1 0.0 19.0 87.1 B- 77 33 1945-1946 29.0 26.1 5.2 26.0 86.3 B- 76 34 1929-1930 34.0 22.8 4.0 25.0 85.8 B- 75 35 1986-1987 22.0 35.2 9.5 19.0 85.7 B- 74 36 2014-2015 43.0 21.0 1.3 20.0 85.3 B- 73 37 1906-1907 39.0 23.4 0.2 22.0 84.6 B- 73 38 1894-1895 38.0 11.3 0.0 32.0 81.3 C+ 72 39 1961-1962 48.0 21.6 0.0 11.0 80.6 C+ 71 40 2003-2004 40.0 18.1 0.0 21.0 79.1 C+ 70 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 41 1925-1926 30.0 22.3 5.1 21.0 78.4 C+ 70 42 1969-1970 40.0 19.1 1.1 18.0 78.2 C+ 69 43 2010-2011 47.0 14.4 2.6 14.0 78.0 C+ 68 44 1901-1902 47.0 8.4 0.6 22.0 78.0 C+ 67 45 1916-1917 34.0 23.1 0.0 20.0 77.1 C+ 67 46 1902-1903 32.0 19.8 0.0 25.0 76.8 C+ 66 47 1967-1968 41.0 18.1 3.4 14.0 76.5 C+ 65 48 1932-1933 20.0 25.4 8.5 20.0 73.9 C+ 64 49 1911-1912 40.0 14.4 0.0 19.0 73.4 C+ 64 50 1993-1994 40.0 13.1 0.0 20.0 73.1 C+ 63 51 1987-1988 31.0 20.4 2.5 18.0 71.9 C 62 52 1989-1990 31.0 14.5 0.0 24.0 69.5 C 61 53 1938-1939 23.0 18.9 3.6 23.0 68.5 C 61 54 1985-1986 40.0 15.6 0.0 12.0 67.6 C 60 55 1955-1956 43.0 10.3 0.0 14.0 67.3 C 59 56 1946-1947 23.0 22.3 4.9 16.0 66.2 C 58 57 2004-2005 35.0 17.6 0.2 13.0 65.8 C 58 58 2000-2001 47.0 8.7 0.0 9.0 64.7 C 57 59 1896-1897 36.0 12.3 0.0 16.0 64.3 C 56 60 1899-1900 33.0 16.2 1.0 13.0 63.2 C 55 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 61 1964-1965 37.0 10.2 0.0 15.0 62.2 C 55 62 1973-1974 31.0 17.1 2.3 10.0 60.4 C 54 63 1927-1928 25.0 15.9 9.3 10.0 60.2 C 53 64 1900-1901 39.0 8.6 0.0 12.0 59.6 C- 52 65 1983-1984 38.0 8.4 0.0 13.0 59.4 C- 52 66 1942-1943 29.0 13.7 0.0 16.0 58.7 C- 51 67 1907-1908 28.0 16.8 0.6 13.0 58.4 C- 50 68 2005-2006 24.0 19.6 4.6 10.0 58.2 C- 49 69 1908-1909 16.0 21.8 0.9 19.0 57.7 C- 48 70 1953-1954 21.0 20.6 1.2 14.0 56.8 C- 48 71 2024-2025 29.0 12.7 1.6 12.0 55.3 C- 47 72 1970-1971 39.0 11.0 0.0 5.0 55.0 C- 46 73 1913-1914 26.0 11.8 0.0 16.0 53.8 C- 45 74 1915-1916 27.0 13.2 0.0 13.0 53.2 C- 45 75 2017-2018 35.0 8.7 0.0 9.0 52.7 C- 44 76 2006-2007 33.0 9.4 0.0 10.0 52.4 C- 43 77 2018-2019 27.0 15.6 0.0 9.0 51.6 C- 42 78 1984-1985 31.0 9.6 0.0 11.0 51.6 C- 42 79 1958-1959 46.0 2.6 0.0 3.0 51.6 C- 41 80 1996-1997 31.0 12.6 0.8 7.0 51.4 C- 40 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 81 1928-1929 27.0 12.4 5.6 6.0 51.0 C- 39 82 1954-1955 34.0 8.9 0.0 8.0 50.9 C- 39 83 1905-1906 23.0 13.8 0.7 13.0 50.5 C- 38 84 1979-1980 35.0 8.9 0.0 6.0 49.9 C- 37 85 2021-2022 22.0 14.0 1.8 12.0 49.8 C- 36 86 1968-1969 37.0 10.8 0.0 1.0 48.8 C- 36 87 1980-1981 41.0 4.3 0.0 3.0 48.3 C- 35 88 1922-1923 26.0 13.9 0.0 8.0 47.9 D+ 34 89 1950-1951 35.0 6.2 0.0 6.0 47.2 D+ 33 90 1914-1915 31.0 6.8 0.0 9.0 46.8 D+ 33 91 1926-1927 27.0 10.7 0.0 9.0 46.7 D+ 32 92 1923-1924 24.0 13.0 1.3 8.0 46.3 D+ 31 93 1940-1941 23.0 11.8 0.0 11.0 45.8 D+ 30 94 1971-1972 24.0 13.5 0.0 8.0 45.5 D+ 30 95 1893-1894 23.0 12.1 0.0 10.0 45.1 D+ 29 96 2020-2021 20.0 10.9 0.0 14.0 44.9 D+ 28 97 1943-1944 21.0 11.7 0.0 12.0 44.7 D+ 27 98 1998-1999 25.0 7.6 0.0 11.0 43.6 D+ 27 99 2008-2009 37.0 3.3 0.0 3.0 43.3 D+ 26 100 1948-1949 9.0 19.9 2.0 11.0 41.9 D+ 25 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 101 1992-1993 26.0 11.7 0.0 4.0 41.7 D+ 24 102 1959-1960 22.0 12.5 1.0 6.0 41.5 D+ 23 103 1956-1957 18.0 13.6 0.0 9.0 40.6 D+ 23 104 2007-2008 26.0 8.5 0.0 5.0 39.5 D+ 22 105 1994-1995 21.0 8.0 2.2 8.0 39.2 D+ 21 106 1988-1989 26.0 8.0 0.0 5.0 39.0 D+ 20 107 1991-1992 28.0 4.1 0.0 3.0 35.1 D 20 108 1897-1898 23.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 35.0 D 19 109 1975-1976 29.0 3.7 0.0 2.0 34.7 D 18 110 1920-1921 17.0 9.8 0.5 7.0 34.3 D 17 111 1972-1973 32.0 1.2 0.0 1.0 34.2 D 17 112 1974-1975 18.0 11.0 0.0 5.0 34.0 D 16 113 1990-1991 19.0 9.1 0.0 5.0 33.1 D 15 114 1936-1937 14.0 11.3 1.0 6.0 32.3 D 14 115 1951-1952 22.0 7.1 0.0 2.0 31.1 D 14 116 2023-2024 10.0 11.3 0.0 9.0 30.3 D 13 117 1941-1942 23.0 4.1 0.0 2.0 29.1 D 12 118 1895-1896 23.0 3.3 0.0 2.0 28.3 D 11 119 2012-2013 19.0 4.8 0.0 3.0 26.8 D 11 120 1937-1938 21.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 26.0 D 10 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 121 1912-1913 15.0 7.3 0.0 3.0 25.3 D 9 122 1952-1953 14.0 8.2 0.0 3.0 25.2 D 8 123 1930-1931 18.0 3.6 0.0 1.0 22.6 D- 8 124 1918-1919 15.0 4.3 0.0 1.0 20.3 D- 7 125 2001-2002 14.0 2.3 0.0 2.0 18.3 D- 6 126 2019-2020 14.0 1.8 0.0 1.0 16.8 D- 5 127 2016-2017 16.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 16.7 D- 5 128 2011-2012 10.0 1.8 0.0 4.0 15.8 D- 4 129 1997-1998 9.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 10.1 F 3 130 1949-1950 9.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 9.5 F 2 131 2022-2023 7.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.2 F 2 132 1931-1932 5.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 6.7 F 1 dc Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 1 1904-1905 58.0 42.0 2.0 53.0 155.0 A+ 100 2 1917-1918 58.0 35.9 6.0 50.0 149.9 A+ 99 3 2009-2010 29.0 56.1 21.3 30.0 136.4 A 98 4 1960-1961 42.0 40.3 8.1 44.0 134.4 A 98 5 1898-1899 44.0 49.9 9.5 30.0 133.4 A 97 6 1935-1936 47.0 33.0 9.4 29.0 118.4 B+ 96 7 1903-1904 67.0 20.2 0.6 30.0 117.8 B+ 95 8 1921-1922 32.0 40.0 16.0 28.0 116.0 B+ 95 9 2002-2003 37.0 40.3 9.4 26.0 112.7 B+ 94 10 1995-1996 36.0 40.8 10.1 23.0 109.9 B+ 93 11 1894-1895 43.0 24.7 1.0 39.0 107.7 B 92 12 1978-1979 33.0 37.7 10.2 23.0 103.9 B 92 13 1966-1967 26.0 36.4 7.6 26.0 96.0 B- 91 14 1910-1911 36.0 32.6 0.0 26.0 94.6 B- 90 15 1939-1940 37.0 24.4 4.7 28.0 94.1 B- 89 16 1962-1963 46.0 20.3 0.7 27.0 94.0 B- 89 17 1933-1934 43.0 23.1 3.0 24.0 93.1 B- 88 18 1934-1935 28.0 31.9 7.0 26.0 92.9 B- 87 19 1919-1920 48.0 16.2 0.0 28.0 92.2 B- 86 20 1911-1912 42.0 18.0 1.1 30.0 91.1 B- 86 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 21 1947-1948 44.0 23.5 0.4 22.0 89.9 B- 85 22 1908-1909 22.0 35.1 8.7 23.0 88.8 B- 84 23 1957-1958 31.0 29.8 14.0 12.0 86.8 B- 83 24 1963-1964 31.0 27.0 3.7 25.0 86.7 B- 83 25 1965-1966 30.0 28.4 9.1 18.0 85.5 B- 82 26 1929-1930 36.0 20.4 6.5 22.0 84.9 B- 81 27 1987-1988 30.0 24.6 7.8 22.0 84.4 B- 80 28 1976-1977 48.0 11.1 0.0 24.0 83.1 C+ 80 29 1924-1925 34.0 20.2 0.0 28.0 82.2 C+ 79 30 1901-1902 46.0 10.6 0.0 22.0 78.6 C+ 78 31 1977-1978 43.0 14.4 0.0 18.0 75.4 C+ 77 32 1981-1982 28.0 22.3 1.4 22.0 73.7 C+ 77 33 1909-1910 38.0 17.0 0.0 18.0 73.0 C+ 76 34 1899-1900 32.0 19.9 4.0 17.0 72.9 C+ 75 35 1906-1907 37.0 20.5 0.0 15.0 72.5 C+ 74 36 1967-1968 36.0 18.4 1.9 16.0 72.3 C+ 73 37 1986-1987 14.0 31.1 7.7 17.0 69.8 C 73 38 1982-1983 15.0 27.6 13.0 13.0 68.6 C 72 39 1925-1926 29.0 17.9 4.4 17.0 68.3 C 71 40 1896-1897 39.0 16.2 0.0 13.0 68.2 C 70 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 41 1945-1946 30.0 21.6 0.0 16.0 67.6 C 70 42 1907-1908 35.0 18.3 0.0 14.0 67.3 C 69 43 1900-1901 47.0 9.0 0.0 9.0 65.0 C 68 44 1893-1894 27.0 23.4 1.5 13.0 64.9 C 67 45 1916-1917 36.0 15.8 0.0 12.0 63.8 C 67 46 1989-1990 27.0 12.7 0.0 24.0 63.7 C 66 47 1932-1933 20.0 22.8 6.5 14.0 63.3 C 65 48 1999-2000 23.0 15.4 4.3 20.0 62.7 C 64 49 1993-1994 33.0 9.2 0.0 20.0 62.2 C 64 50 2013-2014 25.0 19.3 0.9 15.0 60.2 C 63 51 1985-1986 30.0 15.4 0.0 14.0 59.4 C- 62 52 2015-2016 17.0 21.9 7.8 11.0 57.7 C- 61 53 1905-1906 26.0 18.4 0.4 12.0 56.8 C- 61 54 1946-1947 26.0 16.6 2.6 11.0 56.2 C- 60 55 1969-1970 29.0 14.0 0.0 13.0 56.0 C- 59 56 1915-1916 28.0 14.3 0.2 13.0 55.5 C- 58 57 1914-1915 36.0 8.5 0.0 11.0 55.5 C- 58 58 2003-2004 28.0 12.4 0.0 15.0 55.4 C- 57 59 1964-1965 30.0 11.7 0.0 13.0 54.7 C- 56 60 1938-1939 23.0 15.1 1.5 15.0 54.6 C- 55 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 61 1913-1914 28.0 10.8 0.0 15.0 53.8 C- 55 62 2014-2015 26.0 13.4 0.0 13.0 52.4 C- 54 63 1961-1962 29.0 11.0 0.0 12.0 52.0 C- 53 64 1942-1943 28.0 12.7 0.0 11.0 51.7 C- 52 65 1927-1928 24.0 13.2 5.5 9.0 51.7 C- 52 66 2024-2025 20.0 14.9 3.1 13.0 51.0 C- 51 67 1970-1971 34.0 10.3 0.0 5.0 49.3 C- 50 68 1953-1954 17.0 18.0 2.9 11.0 48.9 C- 49 69 2004-2005 28.0 11.7 0.0 9.0 48.7 C- 48 70 1902-1903 31.0 8.2 0.0 9.0 48.2 C- 48 71 1955-1956 36.0 7.3 0.0 4.0 47.3 D+ 47 72 2010-2011 27.0 9.9 0.0 10.0 46.9 D+ 46 73 1984-1985 27.0 10.3 0.0 9.0 46.3 D+ 45 74 2006-2007 29.0 7.2 0.0 10.0 46.2 D+ 45 75 1944-1945 34.0 8.2 0.0 4.0 46.2 D+ 44 76 1928-1929 31.0 8.0 2.5 4.0 45.5 D+ 43 77 1983-1984 29.0 6.8 0.0 9.0 44.8 D+ 42 78 2000-2001 30.0 7.2 0.0 6.0 43.2 D+ 42 79 1897-1898 29.0 8.0 0.0 6.0 43.0 D+ 41 80 1958-1959 35.0 4.9 0.0 3.0 42.9 D+ 40 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 81 1926-1927 25.0 8.8 0.0 9.0 42.8 D+ 39 82 1979-1980 19.0 14.0 0.0 9.0 42.0 D+ 39 83 1950-1951 24.0 9.2 0.0 7.0 40.2 D+ 38 84 1956-1957 18.0 11.9 0.0 10.0 39.9 D+ 37 85 1971-1972 18.0 16.2 0.5 5.0 39.7 D+ 36 86 2018-2019 10.0 16.6 3.3 9.0 38.9 D+ 36 87 1973-1974 12.0 16.7 1.0 9.0 38.7 D+ 35 88 2021-2022 18.0 12.3 1.9 6.0 38.2 D+ 34 89 1923-1924 26.0 8.0 0.0 4.0 38.0 D+ 33 90 1922-1923 25.0 8.8 0.0 4.0 37.8 D+ 33 91 1940-1941 26.0 6.7 0.0 4.0 36.7 D+ 32 92 2005-2006 15.0 13.6 1.7 6.0 36.3 D+ 31 93 1943-1944 23.0 6.2 0.0 7.0 36.2 D+ 30 94 1920-1921 22.0 9.1 1.0 4.0 36.1 D+ 30 95 1980-1981 28.0 4.5 0.0 3.0 35.5 D 29 96 1994-1995 15.0 9.7 0.0 10.0 34.7 D 28 97 1954-1955 23.0 6.6 0.0 4.0 33.6 D 27 98 1968-1969 29.0 2.4 0.0 2.0 33.4 D 27 99 1912-1913 18.0 8.8 1.5 5.0 33.3 D 26 100 1948-1949 9.0 15.8 0.7 7.0 32.5 D 25 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 101 1937-1938 26.0 3.0 0.0 3.0 32.0 D 24 102 1936-1937 17.0 9.2 0.6 5.0 31.8 D 23 103 2008-2009 26.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 30.0 D 23 104 1941-1942 25.0 2.1 0.0 2.0 29.1 D 22 105 1895-1896 25.0 1.5 0.0 2.0 28.5 D 21 106 2017-2018 22.0 3.3 0.0 3.0 28.3 D 20 107 1930-1931 22.0 2.5 0.0 3.0 27.5 D 20 108 1959-1960 15.0 7.2 0.0 5.0 27.2 D 19 109 1991-1992 16.0 6.6 0.0 4.0 26.6 D 18 110 1988-1989 19.0 5.3 0.0 2.0 26.3 D 17 111 2023-2024 9.0 8.0 0.0 8.0 25.0 D 17 112 1951-1952 15.0 6.4 0.0 3.0 24.4 D 16 113 1974-1975 6.0 12.5 0.0 5.0 23.5 D- 15 114 1998-1999 19.0 2.9 0.0 1.0 22.9 D- 14 115 1996-1997 12.0 6.7 0.0 4.0 22.7 D- 14 116 2020-2021 14.0 5.4 0.0 3.0 22.4 D- 13 117 1992-1993 15.0 5.1 0.0 2.0 22.1 D- 12 118 1990-1991 10.0 8.1 0.0 4.0 22.1 D- 11 119 2007-2008 13.0 4.9 0.0 4.0 21.9 D- 11 120 1975-1976 19.0 1.4 0.0 1.0 21.4 D- 10 Rank YEAR T<=32 Snow MECSb D>1" Points Grade PCTL 121 1972-1973 21.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.1 D- 9 122 1918-1919 16.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 19.3 D- 8 123 1952-1953 8.0 5.2 0.0 2.0 15.2 D- 8 124 2012-2013 11.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 12.5 D- 7 125 2016-2017 9.0 1.4 0.0 1.0 11.4 F 6 126 2001-2002 6.0 3.2 0.0 1.0 10.2 F 5 127 2011-2012 6.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 9.0 F 5 128 1949-1950 8.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.3 F 4 129 2019-2020 6.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.6 F 3 130 2022-2023 5.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.4 F 2 131 1931-1932 4.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 F 2 132 1997-1998 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.1 F 1

While 75+% of the EPS members give us no snow during the March 9th-10th period, there are now ~15% that give us several inches - strongest signal in several days yet still weak.

Over the last 7 model runs, the percent of EPS members giving College Park 3" of snow/sleet during the next 15 days has bounced between 4% and 12%; it is currently at 8%. Here are the 24-hour snow/sleet numbers from the latest run - weak signal persists for the 9th - 10th.

Not quite what you're looking for ... but ...

at least? StnID: kdca Profile Thermal Adjust: 0.0 Cloud RH threshold: 85% Average Hourly Sounding: NO Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% ============================================================================================================================ 250218/1300Z 1 32009KT 23.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1400Z 2 31011KT 24.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1500Z 3 30011KT 24.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1600Z 4 30011KT 25.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1700Z 5 30011KT 26.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/1800Z 6 30011KT 27.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250218/1900Z 7 29010KT 27.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2000Z 8 30010KT 28.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2100Z 9 30009KT 28.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2200Z 10 31008KT 27.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250218/2300Z 11 32007KT 25.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0000Z 12 33007KT 23.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/0100Z 13 34007KT 22.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0200Z 14 33007KT 21.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0300Z 15 34007KT 20.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0400Z 16 33006KT 19.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0500Z 17 33006KT 18.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0600Z 18 33007KT 17.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/0700Z 19 33006KT 17.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0800Z 20 33006KT 17.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/0900Z 21 33006KT 16.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1000Z 22 33005KT 16.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1100Z 23 33005KT 15.3F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1200Z 24 33005KT 16.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/1300Z 25 33006KT 17.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1400Z 26 32006KT 18.9F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1500Z 27 33006KT 19.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1600Z 28 33005KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1700Z 29 33005KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/1800Z 30 33005KT 22.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250219/1900Z 31 33005KT 22.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/2000Z 32 32003KT 22.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/2100Z 33 VRB01KT 21.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 250219/2200Z 34 VRB01KT 20.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 250219/2300Z 35 VRB02KT 21.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 100| 0| 0 250220/0000Z 36 VRB01KT 21.3F SNOW 18:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/0100Z 37 33003KT 21.5F SNOW 19:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 16:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0 250220/0200Z 38 36005KT 21.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 100| 0| 0 250220/0300Z 39 36009KT 21.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 18:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0 250220/0400Z 40 01008KT 21.6F SNOW 19:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 18:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.08 100| 0| 0 250220/0500Z 41 02006KT 21.8F SNOW 14:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.09 100| 0| 0 250220/0600Z 42 02005KT 22.0F SNOW 18:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048 18:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.14 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/0700Z 43 02004KT 22.2F SNOW 17:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060 18:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 250220/0800Z 44 01005KT 22.4F SNOW 19:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 18:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.25 100| 0| 0 250220/0900Z 45 36005KT 22.4F SNOW 18:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 18:1| 5.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 250220/1000Z 46 36006KT 22.4F SNOW 20:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 18:1| 6.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0 250220/1100Z 47 35006KT 22.5F SNOW 24:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.031 19:1| 6.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.37 100| 0| 0 250220/1200Z 48 36006KT 22.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 19:1| 7.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/1300Z 49 36006KT 23.1F SNOW 21:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 19:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 100| 0| 0 250220/1400Z 50 35007KT 23.6F SNOW 20:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026 19:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.45 100| 0| 0 250220/1500Z 51 34007KT 23.8F SNOW 15:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 19:1| 8.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 100| 0| 0 250220/1600Z 52 34008KT 24.2F SNOW 17:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 19:1| 9.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 250220/1700Z 53 33010KT 24.2F SNOW 24:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 19:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0 250220/1800Z 54 32010KT 23.4F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 19:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 250220/1900Z 55 32010KT 24.0F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 18:1| 9.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 250220/2000Z 56 32011KT 24.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 18:1| 9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.55 100| 0| 0

While the median forecast snow/sleet from the ECMWF EPS is about 0.1" for most of us, the 90th PCTL outcome shows the 2" line just southeast of many of us.

I know you're joking, but I believe it trained on selected years from the 40-year ERA5 reanalysis, which covered 1979 - 2018. A reanalysis blends model output with observations. The resolution of the training data set is 1 x 1 degrees, so relatively coarse.

Almost 2" here as of 6

Just fell below freezing here (31.9) and on cue, despite the disconnect between air temperature and the surface, the driveway is beginning to cave. Moderate snow.

Yes, the current sun angle of 32.6 degrees at my location and time is more than 11 degrees higher than it would have been on the 21st of December at the same time.

The precipitation distribution wobbled back to what it looked like in the 00 UTC run.