mattie g
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Everything posted by mattie g
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I don't recall the RGEM ever really looking all that promising. GGEM? Sure, but I feel like the RGEM has been consistently holding back the energy in the Southwest and getting the phase going too late. I'm open to being corrected though.
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Yup. We're on the same page here.
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Trough is just so broad compared to the sharp trough on the NAM.
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I think it's OK for folks to comment after the run (or at least the interesting part) is done, but there's a lot of poor discussion. Just need to rein it in a *little bit*! I'm by no means even close to an expert, but I do comment where I feel comfortable; otherwise, I leave it to those who actually know what the hell they're talking about. Lots and lots of years of posting less and reading more.
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Let's not get crazy here. The GFS isn't going to smoke us, and I don't think it's wise to even consider the possibility that any model run will do so.
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Thanks. I mean...it was almost from the start that the timing seemed so much better. No need to speculate on here as to what that would mean as the run was coming out, but for me that's where it all started. It was only a matter of waiting to make sure it didn't sh*t the bed, which the NAM is wont to to.
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Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows?
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Energy in the Southwest isn't getting held back and the energy up north isn't racing ahead.
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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion
mattie g replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
-PNA -
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If only the JMA didn't suck.
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Late January and February Medium/Long Range Discussion
mattie g replied to WinterWxLuvr's topic in Mid Atlantic
I came in to mention that it's looking like a good amount of moisture will be coming at us from the southwest. If we get under a decent cold dome, we could absolutely score.- 4,130 replies
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- prime climo
- cold canada
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That's all I was focusing on. That thing closed off and neither opened nor jumped quickly to Montauk. I understand the talk of caution and all that, but if there's one thing I'm taking away from this run it's the timing of the phase and that closed low. OK...I guess that was two things, but still.
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Exactly my thinking. All models have been getting us into some fluffy stuff on Friday night regardless of what happens down the line. If those of us west of the bay-ish accept that snow from the coastal is a long shot, that's a really nice situation to be in.
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I'd have been quite out on this storm had yesterday's 12z Canadian not dropped 8-12" on MBY. Not going to be upset if I can score 2" or so of dendrites from the northern stream energy before the storm bombs, but I've exactly zero expectations for getting snow from the coastal.
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Gotta love the NAM's closed ridge over NW Nevada and eastern Oregon at 72.
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https://webb.nasa.gov/content/observatory/sunshield.html
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From what I’ve read, the sunshield is meant to keep the actual body of the telescope shielded from the sun so that the lens and other fun stuff can remain super cold, which is necessary for proper performance.
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I think I scrape 0.7” with the light stuff before the storm bombs pretty far ENE of us.
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Not going to lose sleep over this run. Just way too different at H5 than the 12z suite overall.
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Decently similar to the 12z CMC.
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I don't think it would have. Things have moved slightly in our favor, but I think it needs to continue to warrant an update.
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Got it. I was thinking much in the same way, but your description helped clarify it - particularly the parts about more amplified waves and greater baroclinicity.
