mattie g

I agree with this, but the thing that's annoying me now is that the trough is a bit broader at 48 on the 12z suite in general.

I'd like to think we can make up that 50 miles, but I think that's a lot to ask at this point given the convergence on a solution that we're seeing now. I agree, though, that if we could get things to go neutral/negative/closed off just a bit west/earlier then we could see much better snows form the coastal west of the bay. I'd love to be wrong, but it seems a really tall order.

For sure. I don't think anyone west of the bay should hang their hats on getting significant precip from the coastal. Anything to help wring out as much moisture as possible on Friday evening is the way to go.

I'm paying attention to tomorrow-Saturday, but only as an exercise in seeing how things are playing out. I'm really not expecting anything. I'm much more interested in the next couple week, and yeah...if this is still hanging around come early next week I think we have something to actually focus in on.

Obviously we're getting too close for major changes, but small shifts can bring some of us into a little more moisture from the coastal. 12z ICON is a little sharper than 06z. 12z RGEM is very similar to the decent 00z run.

I feel the same. This looks more like a wall of moisture running up and over the dome of cold air - the kind of thing that can end up being pretty straightforward. Big cutter drags the boundary through our area, fresh cold with a big-ass high pressure north of Lakes Erie and Ontario, and moisture streaming out of the Gulf as a low rides up the coast. Not saying I think it will happen (doesn't matter what I think), but it's fraught with far fewer concerns than something like this weekend.

Seems to be the story of this storm. Going negative and closing off about 6 hours too late. At least it's got some nice little snowfall on the front end for generally DC north.

Deeper with more dig and better orientation at 42.

At 36, it's way less positively tilted than prior runs.

Agreed that it's a little broader. Would be great if it sharpened up a bit.

Looks like that northern energy is trying to round the back of the trough a little earlier. Diggier.

At 33, heights higher in the Northeast. Trough maybe a bit broader than 06z.

NAM H5 at 27 is digging more through Illinois than 06z.

-PNA

Those EPS low locations are mostly too far north for our area. Yes…pull those more southern lows back 75-100 miles west and things look a lot better with the coastal, but that’s a really tall order.

Seemed a tiny bit better as it went along, but the trough didn't sharpen up enough.

The "energy tail" is stretched again at 48, but need to give it a couple more frames to see if that energy in Canada can dive in behind and help tilt the vort.

Hedging his bets. It's just a different (and uglier) version of the CWG "chance of 0-24" of snow" scenario.

We probably just need to accept that we're likely to see a warmup ahead of a cutter in early February. After that, all we know is that the arguments about sun angle and and ground temps and drip, drip, drip will begin. And the folks out west and up north and at elevation will begin to tell us eastern lowlanders how we should expect and accept mixed events come the flip to March. And I'll start a gardening and lawn thread in preparation for spring.

Just thought I'd quote this from the New England forum to get the juices flowing again. Too bad weatherwiz didn't refer to its Miller classification...

Sorry the NAM lost your blizzard, all of AmWx.

I was much the same. Unfortunately, one of the few times I had the nerve to post, I made some lame joke to/about stormtracker and he five-posted me. I remember it like it was yesterday - sitting at my kitchen table as runs were coming in prior to (I think) the February 2010 period and feeling so giddy that I just went for it...and BAM! Five-posted. I think it was at least a year before my post limit was lifted. That's just one reason why I cringe now when some of the new folks make jokes that just seem completely out of place.

#newnormal

That energy in central Canada is just racing out ahead now. Too much spacing between those two pieces of energy and we can't get the phase to happen at the right time.

I'm not interested in being in an echo chamber, but I'm not dealing with trolls or morons.