mattie g

January February March April May June July August September October November Christmas I make you correct.

I prefer hardneck. I generally stick with Music since, aside from a couple years ago, I use cloves from the previous year for planting. Are you still harvesting? I've still got probably 25-30 lbs on the vine on my eight plants. I generally don't weigh my tomatoes before processing, but I've filled 10 gallon bags with cored and seeded tomatoes at an average of 5.5 lbs per bag. That makes a nice amount of sauce over the winter, and the seven pints of smoked salsa I made a couple weeks ago with those things is worth every bit of the work that goes into going from seed to fruit!

What's the time period for which this snowfall analysis is taking place?

I'm honestly through with seasonal outlooks at this point. I'm not at all disparaging those who are trying to forecast, and I'll read with some interest, but I will say that I have absolutely zero confidence in seasonal modeling.

Sapwood beers are awesome. Definitely take the opportunity to have a few ours there.

Harvested just shy of 4 lbs of mostly San Marzano Gigante and Jersey Devil tomatoes today. Will probably harvest about the same amount this weekend, most of which will be Pomodoro Squisito. I’ve been impressed with the PS. They mature relatively slowly, but they remain viable for a long time on the vine and after harvest. The SMG and JD are definitely better sauce tomatoes, but the PS are great for a lot of uses.

Latest SPC update shrunk the slight area a bit (mostly the west edge), but much of the area is still in it.

The smart people at SPC have us in slight risk (as of the overnight outlook), so I'm guessing they think it's looking fairly good.

That's because we didn't actually read WxUSAF's post and just copied the first entry. Being honest!

DCA: 11/18 IAD: 10/26 BWI: 11/18 RIC: 11/10 Tiebreaker: 1.89" (Edited to add the tiebreaker)

Drinking a BCBS (2018) Vanilla right now. Celebrating what feels like the real start of stout season.

Sapwood is fantastic, and I’m pretty sure they hold a place in the hearts of many a local homebrewer.

Some warm days, some cool days. Heaven forbid...

2.15" at the nearest CoCoRaHs, which jives with your report since we're often in close alignment, especially in these types of setups. Sun is out now and the temps are climbing ever so slightly, but it's definitely awesome outside.

And now the GFS says we warm up for about a week starting Tuesday or so and then a significant cool shot comes in during the first week of October. Can we agree not to take progs beyond maybe Day 7 verbatim?

@frd My comment about "how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be" isn't related to long-term trends, but rather to actual conditions in the here and now. Like I said, I'm certainly not arguing against the idea that we're gaining temps on the margins. I just think people are biased in how they perceive forecast near(ish)-term progs based on recent conditions. One thing on temp increases that would be great to distangle is the effect that UHI (and things like re-paving/re-siting like at BWI) has had on the obs at the reporting stations. Again...I'm no climate change denier (far from it!), but I'd be curious if there were a way to see how much those large-scale increased temp averages at reporting stations are affected by UHI creep, etc. and how that might bias actual overall temp increases.

Had some moderate rain for about 5-10 minutes about an hour or so ago. Decent slug of moisture headed this way in about another hour.

Sure...it was warm last week, but I think that recency bias plays a big role in how people perceive future weather. I'm not arguing that we're not gaining temps on the margins on average, but I just don't think we can make grandiose statements about how abnormally warm it's been and is going to be based on what are essentially temps within a margin of error (for lack of a better term).

Just had a quick look at TT. There was a front there at the same timeframe, but it never made it all the way here, then there a reinforcing shot that was to come in but not with a ton of oomph.

I was adding onto your post. What I was talking about was the complaining about how the front was slowing down and taking its time to actually move through, and how that meant that any cold push would be muted by the time it reached us. But did they really show that much of a cooler look? And today's 12z GFS is showing mostly cooler than normal temps after the frontal passage on Wednesday-Thursday. I realize I'm being a little oppositional, but I'm just not sure why there's a bit of hand-wringing about this.

DAILY NORMALS AND RECORDS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR WASHINGTON DC DAILY TEMP NORMALS AND EXTREMES GREATEST PRECIP FOR CALENDAR DAY DY NMX NMN NPCP NS RMX /YEAR LOMX/YEAR RMN /YEAR HIMN/YEAR MXPCP YEAR MXSN YEAR 01 74 56 0.11 0.0 93 /1941+ 56 /1899 36 /1899 73 /1954 2.27 1915 02 73 56 0.10 0.0 98*/2019 52 /2011+ 33 /1899 73 /2019 1.74 1976 03 73 55 0.11 0.0 92 /1879 53 /2011+ 35 /1899 73 /2019 1.92 1927 04 72 55 0.11 0.0 94 /1954 56 /1998 34 /1974 74 /1941+ 3.98*1877 05 72 55 0.11 0.0 96 /1941 53 /1948 37 /1935 74 /1898 2.53 1932 T 1892 06 72 54 0.11 0.0 93 /1941 45 /1935 35 /1881 72 /1941 1.47 1957 07 71 54 0.11 0.0 95 /1941 50 /1889 34 /1917 71 /2018+ 3.63 2005 08 71 53 0.11 0.0 91 /2007 54 /1910+ 36 /1964+ 75*/2017 3.67 2005 09 71 53 0.12 0.0 94 /2007 48 /1917 34 /1889 74 /2017 1.02 1977 10 70 53 0.11 0.0 92 /1939 46 /1925 30 /1895 73 /2018 2.15 1971 0.3 1979

And now the front is progged to push through without an issue, then a reinforcing shot of cool air showing up for Monday. I really wish people wouldn't make definitive statements on weather a week out.

Definitely seeing color in the very tips of the earliest-changing trees. I’m never in any rush to lose leaves, so they can take their sweet time getting there, but it would be great to finally have a nice foliage season again.

Surprisingly none to be found. Not sure if some of the weaker limbs got taken out by prior storms or what, but I’m shocked that there weren’t at least medium-sized limbs strewn about. Certainly small limbs, but nothing of note.

We always seem to finish with some back-side development with lows off the coast. Despite the fact that we generally suck at winter, we often see light snow stick around over our area as lows pull away, and we've certainly seen the same with coastal-type lows in the "rainy season."