If the EPO does cooperate and we get the blocking that's showing up on the ensembles, then I think we do get cold and our chances start shortly thereafter, which is when our general chances at frozen start to increase significantly in general.
While I realize that waiting a little bit for the pattern to favor us is much better than having it kick in earlier, I kinda wish we'd seen this like 10 days earlier so that we'd have a better shot at some white leading into Christmas...though I'm not going to complain about it if we do wait and it comes to fruition!