mattie g

You’re retired, so I think it’s less crazy than my considering it.

I’m getting sucked into possibly being one of two swim team reps this summer. @H2O…tell me I’m (not) crazy for seriously considering it…

Sending up an extra prayer for you and your family, WxWatcher…

I just want that high-amplitude push into 8 that the forecast was showing like 10 days ago.

Folks have said it before, but outward-facing social media (i.e., Twitter and Facebook) that are driven by clicks and follows and shares, and which "prove" the popularity of a given met or hobbyist, have sucked a good many quality posters away from message boards. It also doesn't help that - for the most part - our winter weather simply doesn't produce the goods on a regular enough basis to drive interesting discussion. I'm sure that if we were staring down the barrel of a Modoki Nino with blocking, then this place would light up and a lot of the "old" posters would come back for discussion, but otherwise we're just a place for weather nerds to chat.

I honestly didn’t hate the warm day today. If it’s not going to be cold on Christmas, then I’ll take the warmth. Kids loved it. Just had the gustiest shower in a couple months. Pretty impressive. Should probably have qualified for our severe thread.

Midwest has trended slightly colder while the east torched? UHI has helped highlight AGW?

We all need to make educated decisions on which posters to interact with.

I'm sure it'll be fine.

But what locks that vortex in? And what locks in the thing that locks that in? This is where I get confused. Something has to set the baseline for the overall hemispherical (global?) wavelength pattern, right? What's the chicken and what's the egg?

Exactly. That we refer to the "Drought" thread when it's dry is kind of sad. It's like how we use our severe thread to discuss a gusty line of showers.

The last thing I worry about in November and December is dry conditions. The sun is so low that the ground is still moist even without much rainfall.

I mean...it wouldn't be a bad thing, but something is obviously wonky. Seems odd that there would be a huge jump in where convection blows up from one day to the next.

I looked at that earlier and was going to mention it, but you put it way more eloquently than I could have.

There's just an amazing agreement in general between both the GEPS and GEFS going out through the end of the run. The main difference I can see is that the GEPS noses the EPO ridge up into the AO domain, but it's pretty far out there. Stunning to me to see how in line they are.

Hostas don't give a sh*t. Them and roaches will still be here after the apocalypse.

I'm happy to look at it remaining stable in time on the ensembles. We're just looking at long-wave patterns and general trends, but I'm absolutely with you that long-range deterministic modeling is just for show. Nothing to look at until things shuffle a bit, so might as well focus on the beginning of January when things will hopefully look a little more promising as we get closer in time.

Was about to post the same. EPO re-establishes itself just after the new year and connects to the NAO. 50/50 heights remain low throughout. Would love to see that EPO ridge shift just a little east though. Even so...that cold in NW Canada gets released and pushes to the SE. We also see the increased precip anomalies from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic towards the end of the run. That's another thing that's been noticeable for quite a few runs now.

You need to be involved in #natgas. Only then - and with a substantial outlay - will you get the good stuff from them.

You tell the kids to go outside and enjoy the beautiful day. While you drink.

Regarding the rapid-fire posts in the long-range thread…

The reality is that most folks here don’t know what we’re talking about. We’re just weather nerds.

Not in the least. Most folks understand that and/or inexperienced posters just need to find their groove, but folks who have been around for a long time but still chat sh*t are absolutely unbearable…whether it’s the schtick they’ve crafted for years or not.