mattie g

Along with a lot of what has been said, I'm looking at the confluence and the heights around the Great Lakes. Lower heights and more confluence is a good thing to help keep this thing a little more east, but I can't get rid of this nagging feeling that all guidance will pull this thing over or west of DC regardless of the look leading in.

Let's be honest...it's annoying as hell.

Of course it does. I blame my Dad, who texted me just after the suite that smashed DC, to mention how we might get another fresh, deep snowpack on Sunday-Monday. It’s all gone downhill from there.

It appears I was wrong and that the low can go further west.

I suppose so. Thanks! Thanks. Reading through it…nope. Can’t remember it. I need to read through this to see if I can recall any of what I might have written!

Every op run we’ve had in the last 48 hours has eventually run the low to the NNW from SE VA to over DC, no matter how things looked leading into it. I’m just expecting the same will happen with future runs.

Nuts that I can't recall it.

There's that "connection streak" that WxUSAF mentioned earlier today. It seems more potent (?) and a little "squashier" than at the same time in the 12z run.

Yeah...that was one hell of a storm! I was in Wilkes-Barre, PA for that one, but obs near home in South Jersey were nearly 30". I'm sure you got the full appreciation of the 2010s though! As for the central PA events, had that been a month later, I'm sure it would have been a very blurry memory. I know I've mentioned it in here before, but for two of the four years I was up there, we had some amazing winters.

I cannot, for the life of me, remember the February 2014 storm that people are talking about in the MLK storm thread. I know we had a great period of winter weather then, so maybe it just all blended together.

We got smashed by both January 1996 storms in Lewisburg, PA. Buddy and I drove back to school right after the January 12 storm to a scene I had never experienced before, nor have I since. Four-lane state roads with one lane plowed either way and snow banks up and over the roofs of cars. Wading through waist-high powder when trying to get into our fraternity house. Roof collapses. And then the massive flooding on the Susquehanna only a week later. Truly epic stuff!

You're asking questions that either can't be answered or that can be derived by doing a little reading in here.

Actually, I think people were looking at H5 and commenting about how that looked slightly better. No one was saying it looked like a bomb incoming for DC - just small changes to what was a consistently worse look in the last 24-36 hours. Subtle changes up top may well mean small enough changes at the surface to make this a more palatable storm for many, and commenting on those shouldn't be derided.

Interesting locations of the surface low on the Icon. In each three hour increment, it goes from Williamsburg to Fredericksburg to Fairfax, then speeds up and over Newark, NJ another three hours later.

I told my wife that, while we couldn't imagine leaving this neighborhood while the kids are young, I would love to eventually have a place along the southeast coast where I could fish and play golf nearly year-round, but also a place in the mountains where I could go to get my winter fix when needed. I'm not interested in long periods of meh winter weather, so getting away in those dreary months with a mountain place as an option for the fix would be ideal. Bonus is having places that the kids (and maybe eventually grandkids, if I live long enough ) would be happy to visit! Now...I just need the funds to make this all happen...

You're right - we would see some snow on the front end, and we should appreciate it while the snow is falling, but the reality with that solution is that the snow would be washed and melted away quite quickly. Might be tough to enjoy when we know what's coming in just a few hours.

A 50-mile shift isn't a big deal at all, but those of us who have been around long enough know that getting a storm to shift east is a lot harder than getting it to shift west. Not saying it's impossible, but the last day has understandably sucked the excitement out of a lot of folks.

The biggest difference between now and, say, 10 years ago is that a lot of us long-timers aren't up for dealing with the bullsh*t any more. We've gotten older and wiser, have other priorities in life, we like to yell at clouds, etc., and the mods (understandably) don't have the wherewithal to deal with the new folks that muck things up. I mean...I distinctly recall getting smacked down by Randy when I was relatively new and being a bit of a prick, so I cleaned up my act and got with the program. I'm sure plenty of others have done the same. It doesn't help that "weather Twitter" and the like are a thing now, and that pros and serious hobbyists are taking their knowledge there, rather than interacting with folks on weather boards. If this place is to remain, there's going to come a time when either the younger/newer faces will need to step in and help steer the ship, with long-timers hopefully finding it a place worth sticking around.

Steamer

It just seems like such an odd track for the surface low. Not saying that it’s wrong…just that it’s odd. How often do we get lows running right up the fall line?

Came here to say the same. I mean…I thought it looked a little better to start, but my not knowing sh*t about weather was quickly confirmed.

I already want off this ride.

So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip?