mattie g

I think everyone finally understood that, no matter the small (or maybe even relatively significant) upper-air changes from run to run in the last 60+ hours, the end result wasn’t going to significantly change for the better for most in this forum. No reason to parse early details when they’re not going to make a lick of difference in the end.

Like many of the rest of you, I’m looking past this weekend to what could be coming up next. That disturbance next Friday-Saturday on the GFS has been around in some form or another, and it’s started a little bit of a jog to the northwest. We see something hanging around on all other guidance, as well (CMC being the most ridiculous solution for now). With the trend over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t be surprised if the GFS continues moving that one to the northwest, with all guidance starting to converge by the time the upcoming joke is out of here.

Gotta admit, I chuckled. I might steal your idea. Gotta face your fears head on and all that.

It Doesn’t Matter

For all intents and purposes, the ops basically haven’t wavered in 2+ days. It’s uncanny, really, and despite talk of slowing down vorts and getting more confluence and getting good new data from dropsondes and shit, there’s no reason to think we’ll see much different play out on Sunday into Monday. You guys out west are going to get smoked. No need to try to downplay it for fear of jinxing it. It’s going to happen…it’s been a while since you guys have cashed in while folks to the east flipped. It’s like order is being restored to the universe. Us fancy city folk will rip fatties for 3-4 hours, ping, then warm up and rain for a bit. It is what it is, and personally as long as no one is posting snips of correlation coefficient radar as the mix line approaches, I’ll be fine. I’m already more than halfway to average for the season, so tacking on a few inches will just serve to get me even closer to that number.

So what you’re saying is that the same shit keeps happening in the end regardless of what comes before it? Seems annoying. I wonder where I’ve heard that before…

"Dated"

NAM takes MBY from 14F at 7am on Sunday to 41F at 1:00am on Monday.

This storm is so dumb.

This is the MLK Day storm banter thread.

He suckerpunched an old lady and kicked her Yorkie.

I appreciate how adamant you are about this, and I REALLY hope your take turns out correct, but I think the writing is on the wall with this one. All the models are picking up on the jog of the surface low to the NW, and it's happening regardless of what happens earlier in the runs.

Just looked at the CMC. I like the 24+ hours of snowfall that drops a little less than 0.6" of QPF with temps 28-29F and a column that's cold throughout.

JV models will trend to the GFS, which will start the inevitable climb NW by 12z this Sunday. JV models will lag behind the GFS until 0z Tuesday, when they'll generally converge. Now...whether that means anything for our backyards, I have no idea, but it's played out more than once in the last few weeks and I see no reason to feel any differently.

If I had known that the storm thread would become a meme factory, I'd have posted that there.

If I've learned one thing from this storm, it's that the GFS ensembles are apparently useless.

I need to see lows scooting off the coast of Georgia seven days out. Gives us a little bit of room for the NW trend.

That GFS map is just the forecast radar reflectivity and placement of the surface low at that time/ Do the WB maps show the location of the surface low at that hour, while showing the average of the prior 6 hours of QPF? Can't quite reconcile the difference between the two maps. Edit: The 6-hour average map on TT looks much the same as the WB one you posted.

This storm is so annoying.

I-81 pummeled?

If we could get that to vertically stack and occlude even 30 miles east, DC and Baltimore do much better.

What a pointless tweet.

I know PSU has mentioned this, but I would love to hear some other folks' takes on things, as well. If I knew anything, I'd chime in, but I don't so I won't. Besides, I'm sure most folks here can listen to a Philly accent for only so long...

Incredibly. I don't think I've been this annoyed in a while. I liked your "banana bruise' analogy. It's perfect.

Annoying, right?