mattie g

Speaking of "unintentional" N*zi symbolism, how's this?

Ruffles

You'll never think of the southern stream the same way again.

Agreed. I say we take the GFS's better handling of the northern stream and combine it with the Euro's newfound enthusiasm for ejecting southern energy from the Southwest.

Just one comment (among my others): Talking about the "SS" always kind of bothers me. "SS looks great. It really digs in and clobbers us." Like...doesn't that sound bad, or is it just my Central and Eastern European historian's sensibilities getting to me?

I feel giddy because I was a little right with my Icon talk.

But now we only snow when it gets cold, unlike in the old days when it would snow when it wasn't cold.

I know it's the Icon, but at 84, it's heading neutral.

I hope no one thinks I'm stressing. I just want it to snow.

Thanks. Me too.

I'd take 6-12" in a heartbeat (but kinda only if MBY was closer to 12"). Thing is...if we got 6-12" and SE VA got 12-18", I'd be maybe a little annoyed.

FCPS (Fairfax) is already closed 1/21-1/24. Just getting ahead of the game.

The problem is that the GFS is being stubborn, and it runs out to that range four times a day, so we have to wait on the Euro to pummel us and make us feel better. Doesn't help that the 06z Euro appeared to be stepping back, so now we're (I'm) on pins and needles until 10:45 or whatever.

I'm annoyed now. 12z is huge. If the 12z GFS doesn't come in with a solution close to what the Euro was showing at 0z, then I fully expect the 12z Euro to move towards the weaker-souther-easter solution.

If the focking GFS would just come into line with the 0z Euro, we could start a thread and be done with he hand-wringing Focking GFS....

Yeah…we’ve seen these things play out before, whether to our benefit or detriment. I’m not confident that it’s going to happen, but I could absolutely see it happening. The only explanation right now would be for this GFS run to have been a burp, but I’m quietly confident that it wasn’t.

That’s a crazy change at H5 starting pretty early on. As soon as that southern stream energy gets ejected, the northern stream slows down and they start to play off one another. There was just no meaningful interaction at 500 in previous runs, so for it to have done this in just one run is pretty substantial. If the Euro at least shows a somewhat similar solution later, and the 6z GFS keeps moving more towards moving the southern shortwave east and the northern shortwave west, we might want to get out the shovel oil…just in case.

We’ve got the Icon trend, as well.

Same with 18z…and we got it.

I don’t want this possible event to ruin the potential of a big boy on Friday/Saturday, but if it lays down 3” followed by cold, I’m not going to turn my nose up at it.

As for this weekend-ish threat period, I’d like to see the GFS at least make a move today towards getting us snows. If we don’t see that today, then it’s getting a little too close to gametime and I’d be a little afraid that this one will slip away.

Got it…and that’s kind of what I figured. Given that I’m sitting at about 75% of climo at this point, I’m fine with being patient until discrete threats for MBY come into reliable range. Good thing is that we don’t really have to wait long. If a threat looks to miss, there should be another one on its heels that we can keep our eyes on.

It doesn’t because I don’t have the weather memory so many of you have. All I remember is that it was cold and we had a never ending series of vorts flying around the PV that gave us shots at snow. I wish I had been keeping notes on our snows back then…

All I looked for in the Icon was any trend to the NW, and we got it. That’s a good start to 12z.

But it’s run from the same initial conditions as the op, and the fact they generally resemble each others’ results (excepting snow totals) on day 5 can’t be ignored.