mattie g

12z GFS is trying to set up a storm on the 21st-22nd now. Problem is that we have a Great Lakes Low and heights are high out in front of the storm and we don't have cold air in place. Northern vort never drops in and phases with the southern energy, so touthern low just slides off the coast after a little bit of frozen precip. So different than the look just 18 hours ago. I mean...not even close.

Yup. Now I'm just waiting for WinterWxLuvr to come in and tell us that we need precip first!

This is what weenies like me need to focus on. That storm sets the stage for what happens after it, so until it's come and gone we're going to see some fluctuations in what the models show for this period of interest. We watch and wait and teeter on the edge of despair.

No it doesn't.

If I start out with a little slop, that'll get me on the board with a first Trace (that I'm aware of). I guess that'll have to do!

I was just thinking exactly the same thing. Excellent new blood!

I can’t remember a damn thing, but I’m pretty f’ing smart. I think.

That plant blooms in December every year, if I’m honest. There’s also a house around the corner whose daffodils start coming up during the first “thaw” period in January or February each year, as well. I’ll be sure to post a pic to push weenies off the ledge as soon as they pop. As for swim, we had a fundraiser yesterday morning and practice tonight. It never stops!

Pic from a dog walk today. Spring is right around the corner.

https://www.reddit.com/r/confidentlyincorrect/

I’d love to be in a situation in which a low spinning in central PA spat out snow here. See: 00z GFS and the low in Wisconsin.

That’s awesome! I played plenty of baseball and soccer in Vineland. I grew up in Camden/Pennsauken and most of my family is still scattered all across South Jersey.

While I know that many here don’t care about weather outside of our backyards (i usually feel the same), I love seeing so many storms coming in off the Pacific and dousing the West Coast.

Goddamnf*cking right. Get on the board and usher in some cold, then see what happens after that.

Yup. I grew up in South Jersey, and I recall being excited by storms coming in from the west or northwest that were progged to reform because that usually meant we'd get some snow. ittle did I know way back then that NE would get absolutely clobbered by them or else my enthusiasm might have ben dampened a bit.

There's all kinds of weird stuff happening on that run. Look at some stuff going on off the NE coast with lows retrograding/reforming well to the southwest. Pretty wild. I know that folks generally think that Philly gets blasted by Miller Bs, but in reality they usually don't. They do get snow from them, but those storms usually mature too late to get Philly into the good stuff. Better than smoking cirrus like we do, but they don't usually get snows like they do from New York and to the N and NE.

No way am I sweating details this far out, especially since both the Icon and Canadian showed an actual coastal, but I'm intrigued by what the GFS just did. It's pretty cool to see a flow of moisture coming at us from the NW, up and over CAD. Instead of a flood of warm air pushing from the SW that threatens to erode our CAD, we have the mechanisms in place to reinforce the cold air and because we get some redevelopment south of us and we have flow coming from the NW we're not threatened with the mids being overwhelmed with warm air. Whether this happens or not, it's just kind of a cool thing to see play out on a model.

Makes sense

GEPS puts a ridge on the West Coast around Day 12 and keeps it there for basically the remainder of the run.

I was thinking that. In our neck of the woods, we can have too much of a good thing in that regard, but there's temperature risk for us pretty much any time and in any pattern.

And that's a killer -EPO getting established there. Looks like the cold air moderates a little by the time it gets to us, but we're still BN.

I honestly thought it was going to end with the person backing off. What a f*cking moron.

As a Tottenham Hotspur fan, this post immediately made me think of this:

That's always the one positive thing I take away from these shitty weather periods in December.