mattie g

Unless there’s a time between panels where things warm up a bit up top, we’re fine at all levels on the GFS.

All that energy over the Plains on the CMC is wild. It’s going to lay down another crushing on someone coming up…

Give me a sec to fire up the Erol’s internet and see if I can connect that way…

Cold rain for many.

I’m still a few pages back, so commenting on Euro AI, but that last storm was really flirting with flipping issues. Not that it matters at over 300 hours out, but just sayin’…

Totally makes sense. When we hit, we can hit big, but we also fail big and often. I find it interesting and awesome that the three hits on this run are an overrunning/SWFE event, what kind of looks to be a Miller B, and a storm riding up the coast. Three ways to win, three ways to fail.

This is an absolutely ludicrous run. Basically drops 30+” areawide for the 10-day period starting on the 24th.

Just going on the guidance we’re seeing right now, I don’t see why NW of the cities should be even colder/smokier than those of us closer in. This is really looking likelier to be a super cold event everywhere from start to finish.

11/30: Mix of sleet and light rain for a couple hours before switching to light cold rain. 12/2: Mix early in the morning before flipping to hard, cold rain. 12/5: 2.25”. 2” in the man event and 0.25” later that evening/overnight. 12/13: 1.25” 1/17-18: T - An hour or so of sleet/flurries on the 17th and very light snow on the 18th Running Total: 3.5”

Correct me if I’m wrong, but the suppressed look on the GFS is less to do with anomalous strength of that high (it doesn’t seem that terribly strong) and more to do with the energy not ejecting from around the Baja. Definitely take your point regarding how the AI models may not “want” to reflect the more extreme potential in the atmosphere, though.

I’m already invested. Thing is…while I’ll be disappointed if it doesn’t pan out, I won’t lose my shit and will just look to the next window with an eye to knowing it’ll soon enough be spring!

I hate that I can’t spot an AI image simply by looking at fingers anymore. Bring me a fat f’ing dumping with a return NW flow a few days before/during our multi-family trip to Wisp later that week and I’ll be a VERY happy man…

There is. It’s cold as F and there’s no flow to scour out that cold, so precip is falling through some deep cold. Those events are where we can rack up some serious totals over multiple hours without any worries over flipping.

AIs want to throw lots of moisture up and over an entrenched cold dome. Give us that shit any day of the week. It feels like it’s been ages since we’ve had that kind of an event - a uniform dumping where you’re just waiting for it to start and not sweating the details. Anything that happens on the back end of an event like that is gravy.

Some stuff whitened a little here in Burke. Otherwise…

My next door neighbor is a freshman there. Great family and really good friends of ours.

They don’t have the upstairs temps, so it’s hard to be sure, but that maybe looks icy to start around here with temps crashing as the precip picks up.

Not sure if it did anything but rain here in Burke.

I was deep in the IPA game for a long time and I’d agree that there wasn’t much between Treehouse and OH. I always felt that Trilium had the better of either two. OG Aslin was something else though. They turned out some unbelievable beers week after week after week. When they moved out of their tiny OG location, their quality went to hell, but the brewery that filled that old space, Juicy, turned out some incredible stuff. Too bad Juicy’s ownership was an apparent shitshow and went under. There’s a new brewery there now and I hope they can churn out some great stuff like their predecessors.

Not like I’m some super prognosticator or anything, but I’m sticking to this “call” from earlier today.

How in the hell did that happen? I ended up with some crunchballs on bare spots and some wet pavement. I don’t recall there ever being a time that DCA measured something and I didn’t!

I’ve gotten away from drinking beers besides the occasional big BA stout or crispy boys. I’ll have a bit of a NEIPA if my buddies want to share one with me, but it’s been like 18-24 months since I pretty much stopped drinking them on my own!

I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s white rain, but not as much as I’m looking forward to feet of prime-climo pattern.