mattie g
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Everything posted by mattie g
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You know we're just bustin' stones. The thing is...we know that we suck hard at snow, so we need some level of hopes and dreams to keep us going through the season, though deep down inside we all know that those hopes and dreams are highly likely to morph into nightmares come January. Just let us sleep gently until Freddie Krueger pops in for a visit!
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Figured I'd put this here instead of mucking up the tropical thread! The thing is, if this had been a very active season to this point with a few really strong systems, everyone would be taking about how AGW is contributing to an increase in that kind of extreme weather. Now...I'm not at all arguing against AGW, but I suppose it's just more me being annoyed that individual storms or seasons get attributed to AGW, but if there's a lack of extreme weather then there's crickets. I'd actually like to see more discussion of the effects of AGW on weather over longer timescales, and how individual events shouldn't necessarily be attributed to those effects. Also...repeat of 1997-1998 winter incoming? I guess not, what with that having been a super Nino and all. And even that goes to show that a single index isn't the be-all and end-all of seasonal forecasting .
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
mattie g replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
It rained for over an hour here, but it was just some pretty light stuff that dropped about 0.10". Some pretty decent booms though. Disappointing, but...eh. -
2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)
mattie g replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Would have been nice today to get some nice stratiform rains after the line. -
Or just a pretty average summer in general was the saving grace. lol
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Water temps in the 80s is silly high for the South Jersey beaches, but having temps under 60 in peak summer is pretty common. It's caused by upwelling during relatively prolonged southerly winds. The rapid increase in temps is uncommon, but is caused by downwelling on more northerly winds - it's less common because consistent northerly winds are uncommon in summer. The Coriolis effect causes the water to move in a 90-degree angle to the right of the wind direction, which is why you get south winds moving warm water offshore that gets replaced by cold water from underneath. Warm surface water moves from offshore and displaces the cool water nearer land on those northerly winds. Basically, these are very localized temp swings that are caused solely by local winds. Guarantee the water about 5-10 miles off the coast was nice and warm while they were wearing hoodies on the beach.
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I'm in San Juan, PR this week, and just got done an afternoon downpour. Pretty amazing how much water can fall from the sky in these parts.
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HAARP
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Tell that to someone just itching to blame an accident - whether a bus accident or a parent driving a kid to school - on a school district's decision to open schools on a marginal snow day. I hear what you're saying and I agree with you, but the reality is that a school district and/or the district administrators will be strung up (metaphorically speaking, of course) if they make a decision that could potentially be viewed as contributing to some unfortunate event. Now let's take the other side. You have parents who don't want to be inconvenienced by school closings and feel that the schools should be open so they can have the teachers play babysitters for the day. Those people suck, but that's another constituency you need to answer to, so you have to take that all into account and make the best decision possible each time there's an inclement weather day.
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That assumes that all kids have the same access to the software, hardware, and internet needed to be virtual on short notice. Not only that, but if it did become a reality, then it would take the fun out of a snow day. It's a tricky situation because of the litigiousness of society nowadays. School districts are always going to be looking over their shoulders to make sure there won't be some sort of legal action - threatened or real - based on a decision they made to send kids to school. I heard that Fairfax County is considering going to a hours-based school calendar and less a days-based one. I guess the school days are already long enough so that they could reduce the number of days and still meet some sort of necessary quota for the amount of time the kids are in school. It might give the kids an extra week or so, whether that's used for summer break or something else during the regular school year.
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That is early for northeastern schools. I grew up going back after Labor Day, and my nieces and nephews still do the same. I also know lots of folks throughout the Northeast whose kids go back in September. What gets me is the schools down south that go back before August 10!
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I don't know why anyone engages with these posts. It's always the same response, no matter the reasoning or logic behind the posts being made.
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2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
mattie g replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Hints of a hurricane are showing up in long-range forecast models, but experts call it a 'fantasy storm' https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/weather/atlantic-hurricane-fantasy-forecast-wxn/ -
You people are f’ing miserable.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
mattie g replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
^ = Bait- 137 replies
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
mattie g replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
That's a huge feeder. I have a 1.3-lb capacity feeder that works great. Squirrels have never ben able to feed from it. They just eat the seeds that fall to the ground. -
I also love when rain turns to hail in winter. That means the flip to snow is about to happen!
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Fine...you can cover your eyes and close your ears all you want, but it doesn't change the fact that everything looks like sh*t right now! Oh...you weren't talking about the weather.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
mattie g replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
Believe me when I tell you that I've been fantasizing for years about getting a pellet gun and picking them off from my bedroom window, which overlooks my garden. This year I've been closer than ever to doing it, but I don't think the wife would go for it...and not sure I have the stomach to actually go through with it!- 137 replies
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Kind of how I felt. You can see on your image that I was in a hole in the precip for quite some time until it all converged. Probably didn't get much more yesterday than we did on Tuesday, but that's fine - not like we needed it.
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tl;dr 75% of our winters suck, and even years with analogs to good winters in the past would suck now given AGW. Therefore, there's no reason to think we'll ever have a good winter again.
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Last Flood Watch resulted in lots of rain from Fredericksburg and south with barely anything up this way, so obviously the same thing is going to happen today.
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2022 Mid-Atlantic Garden, Lawn, and Other Green Stuff Thread
mattie g replied to mattie g's topic in Mid Atlantic
Nice! I'm super jealous. I can't harvest shite right now because of the f*cking squirrels.
