mattie g

I love that song (big Dylan fan). Really nice version. And the rain sentiment really hits home.

Didn't see this post until Watcher quoted it above. If you (or anyone else reading this) feel like you need counseling/therapy, then please, please, please do it. We're all screwed up in some ways, but the screwiness affects some more - and in different ways - than others. Kind of like we've all got some sort of physical ailments, but certain ones have more obvious and/or debilitating effects on us than do others. Health care is health care, whether it be mental or physical, and we all should be supportive of those who need and want to take care of themselves.

No thanks. lol I'm among the many in the sub who haven't even had a mulch topper this season. Once the late-December looks ended up without "on-the-ground success," I kind of bagged it by lowering my expectations almost completely. I usually don't go that route, but I just wanted to protect myself from further disappointment because for some reason that December fail really got to me. But failing isn't really getting me down at this point. We're almost into February, which is when I start putting my thoughts into all the good stuff happening in the spring and summer (gardening, fishing, maybe some golf, swim team, etc.). And then once we actually get there, the crap winter is just a memory. ETA: Figured this was better in banter than crapping up everyone's glory in the other thread.

Yup. Constant negativity is a real downer during a time of year when people are sick, the days are short, there's a relative lack of available outdoor activities, etc. I'm honestly not even a particularly positive person (lol), but when it comes to weather discussion, I need to be able to see or hear about the potential silver lining rather than just being told that the cloud is taking up the whole horizon and bearing down on me.

Some of us who have been around for a long time just don't care to hear the constant negatives even if we know what the reality is. I'd personally rather look at and discuss the potential positives with the knowledge that it probably won't pan out than be told over and over and over that we need everything to go absolutely f*cking perfectly or else we're toast...and even then we're probably toast.

Thanks! My few hundredths of an inch of rain has the juices flowing!

This f*cking place, man. I hate reading all the goddamn gloom and doom, but I've been doing it for long that it's just a regular part of my day in the winter. I'm looking forward to spring and summer when things slow down and no one is debbing the hell out of the forum on a 12 times per day basis.

Good to see the bears and deer in Mineral County getting in on the action!

Because there's no way to reliably provide a long-term "forecast" without looking back at the historical data to see how things played out during periods with similar teleconnections. It would basically be impossible.

I look at them, but only for the laughs.

Gotta love it! WEATHER53's "old-fashioned" way of forecasting is in the mud.

@WxUSAF...at 306 on the 12z GFS, the 1009L is about to bully that 1051H. You just wait and see.

It has shifted NW to SE from one run to the next over the last few runs. DO NOT WORRY ABOUT OP RUN DETAILS AT THIS RANGE.

Just fucking stop. FFS.

...they stole our snow.

But how long as this "new base state" been the norm? And what is the cause of this state (not CC, but the actual surface cause)? And what's to say that this "new base state" will remain in perpetuity? ORH said something really profound in one of the New England threads yesterday. It was incredibly simple, but really said a lot:

Two days before our third consecutive rainstorm. That's not happening.

9.5" of mashed potatoes IMBY with lots of limbs down in the neighborhood (including the holly in my front yard). Really fun storm that was followed four days later with 2.75" of snow on snow.

No way DCA verifies anywhere close to that. There's a reason that the majority of all the DC winter record lows are from 90+ years ago. The site of that station simply won't allow for it, but if we get decent snowcover and relatively calm winds, it could at least threaten record lows there. But get a little bit outside the real UHI and we could see some negative temps if it all comes together.

It was a great game, but I'm a Spurs fan, so...

What's interesting is that the thicknesses aren't all that impressive, but the lower-level cold push is killer. Really nice to see a system arrive as cold air is pressing...and that is some serious fresh cold.

Soundings look good IYBY starting at 246

I couldn't give a shit about any other sport except for soccer (and when the Eagles are good), and this is the time when soccer ramps up like crazy. Love it!

Not necessarily. I'd say it's more likely we get cold for a few days, then the next 1000mb Low that arrives will bully a 1058 High out of southeastern Quebec and we'll end up with cold rain.