mattie g

I like it, @WxUSAF! Wife and I have been debating putting in a native bed in one section of our front that doesn't have much grass and could really use some building up. Not sure we'll get to it this year, though, since we have a local nursery coming by today to consult on professionally doing our backyard landscaping. Might be a bit much to do two decent landscaping projects at once. If not this year, then definitely next year...

And the NAO was of no help in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015...

My parents have a place a little NW of Tampa, which might well float away in a few days. They're on their way back up north right now, so they're relying on their neighbor for updates. ICON wants to smoke MBY overnight Sunday-Monday. Curious to see what the 12z varsity quite has to say.

But if every single teleconnection isn't in its prime state or if the sun isn't dead or if ACE is high or if basically not everything is perfect then we're screwed.

But if it doesn't make landfall there, was there ever even a hurricane?

I prefer to think of it as driving rain south of Fredericksburg, with puking snows on the northern end of the heaviest precip! On topic: Yay remnants!

OK...sounded like you were referring to people in here. We're generally a pretty dour bunch when it comes to winter, so it would have surprised me if someone from here would think a brutal winter would be a viable analog for us.

Who was using winters from over 100 years ago as analogs?

A rare year in which DC got snow in November and ended up with a good winter overall. Looks like it was pretty well frontloaded and then got pretty mild come early February, which I think a lot of folks around here would be happy with. Nov: 2.5" Dec: 6.8" Jan: 22.6" Feb: 1.5" Mar: 0.0"

Same. I love having raised beds. I built mine about four years ago and have had great results with them. I try not to get too bogged down in my gardening. I've got great soil after having been working and amending it for about 10 years or so, and when I built the beds I made sure to fill them with some of that good soil I'd be working on in the years prior. The beds help keep all the good stuff where it needs to be and, like you said, keep them generally better off during anomalous periods of wet (or dry).

I've got raised beds and pots, as well. I just go by how the plants look and the general health of any of the fruits and vegetables. I've honestly not had any issues other some standard diseases in the past, and without so much as a spot of fungal issues or the like this year I'm just going to let them run. I'll check soil temps early in the season when I direct sow spring crops, but otherwise I don't bother. To each their own, I suppose. I just like to keep my garden going for as long as it's willing to keep producing for me!

I keep mine going as long as possible, and especially so this year because of all the tomatoes I lost to squirrels. I have quite a few lbs of tomatoes still on the vine and haven't had ANY disease issues with the plants so far. I have plenty of jalapenos going and my basil is out of control, as well. I'll probably keep the plants up until at least the middle of October, assuming no random early frost.

@MN Transplant knows my feelings about 8-12" rain events. I don't want another TS Lee, even if it was pretty cool to experience.

But just because a month is a degree above normal doesn't necessarily mean that the whole month will be above normal. Perhaps the first half of the month is slightly above normal, but the second is below. For December, that could absolutely work for us, and it wouldn't go that far against the general consensus forecasts at this time. A -3 to -5 month would suggest cold throughout, so I agree that suppression would be a legitimate concern in a January with that kind of cold. How I read this forecast is a milder than normal beginning of December, with it then going cold for the second half. January would remain quite cold (and possibly dry) throughout the month, with February starting cold. As the pattern relaxes in the beginning of February, we get legitimate snow chances as February "milds up." We could flip to colder than normal in March with a couple shots at snow until climo rules us out of the game. Of course, this is me projecting, but I could see how a forecast like this could play out in the manner I'm suggesting.

It's been a rough go. I had to water my tomatoes three times this summer!!!

January at -3 to -5 is pretty bold, but if that's what your analogs are saying, then best of luck on it! 14-18" of snow is a little below normal for most, but not terribly much so. Wouldn't be a great season by any stretch, but certainly not a complete dud.

Feels like it's been days since we've had blue skies.

Himmm...I guess I'd be considered on the "wrong side" since the houses here are 15-20 years older. Also got some shifty folk in these parts...

Absolute deluge for about 20-30 minutes or so, with decent rains on either end. Closest CoCoRaHs says 0.73", but the SE edge of that one cell that smacked us was really lit up on radar and rolled right over me. Where generally in Burke are you? I'm close to the Rolling Road VRE.

Those two "lines" look to have consolidated to my west and it's filling in nicely. Don't need rain, but whatever...bring it on!

Did they leave a note?

I'm not really sure what you're complaining about. The air tends to get a little more moist when there's rain in the forecast.

It'll only matter if we get a storm that brings in flow off the ocean. If we don't have much of a STJ, then how many storms of that ilk can we really expect?

Bitching about dryness will commence within two days.