mattie g

US World Cup roster comes out at 5:00pm today. Lots of discussion about a leaked roster yesterday, but you could probably easily choose 23 of the 26 guys who are going already, so I'm not trusting any of those Twatter experts/threads. Can't believe the tournament starts in 11 days. That said, F a winter World Cup in Qatar.

That's a 2-4" event just a few weeks from now.

Same

You mistook the closure. It was for Veterans Day.

BWI: 15.5" DCA: 10.7" IAD: 16.5" RIC: 7.9" Tiebreaker (SBY): 8.2"

Nice. Wish I were close to done! I did one cleanup two weekends ago, followed by one this past Friday and one on Saturday. Then all of the neighbors' beech trees dropped their leaves over the weekend, so I have a ton still to do. Three families at the top of our street had a service come out yesterday to clean up their yards. About half of the cul-de-sac was covered in 6-7' of leaves until they came out in the evening to suck them all up. Pretty impressive! As for gutters...I had quality guards installed this summer, and they've been working a real treat so far. I can't emphasize enough how excited I am to finally have them!

Imagine it happening a month later. A nice cold shot followed relatively soon after by a low running from the Gulf -> Wilmington, NC -> 70 miles east of Norfolk -> just off of Cape Cod. What a Christmas scene-setter that could be!

I absolutely have to do a full-property leaf cleanup before Friday. My backyard will never dry out if I don't clean up and we get multiple inches of rain.

80 in November is pretty unusual, for sure. But yeah...as that article points out, it takes at least one frost to put a dent in the mosquito season, and many places haven't had even one yet. I feel like they'll also come back out if there's a long enough time between first frost and a second cold spell.

Not really that unusual to have them around this early in the fall.

So many moving parts, which is always tricky, no matter where you are. Potential is there with that big EPO ridge, but it's more of a fun-to-watch scenario with climo so heavily against us at this point. Agreed on 2009-2010. It was just too easy.

Thanks for keeping up with this. It's always good to have a met follow up on their own takes and address whether any adjustments need to be made. I'll take a flip to cold after Thanksgiving. General pattern progression would put much/most of December in play, then we let the chips fall.

If such a system were to be relatively weak, a PV lobe could essentially act as a temporary block while also providing colder air. Get on the northern end of the precip and you never know - we could get a couple hours of sloppy flakes and a wet mulch-topper.

You're right - it won't happen, but the 06z GFS today is having another go.

Best MLS Cup final ever, but absolutely brutal to be on the losing end.

Last Night was a proud, but bitter, night for Philly sports fans. The Phillies loss doesn’t really matter all that much to me, but that Union loss in PKs in the MLS Cup final is a dagger.

Massive leaf drop today from the beeches that are all over my cul-de-sac. I picked up yesterday and this morning, and right now it looks like I didn’t touch a square foot of my property.

I'd prefer 78-79 of the two.

^ I've mentioned it before, but having the lowest heights in that 50/50 region with a -NAO and the EPO/PNA combo would do nothing but help us with early-winter climo.

Congrats, Wyoming?

True on both counts. I mean...I AM a regular on a weather message board after all.

^ Ent

If we go cold to end the month, then we likely have through the New Year to maximize our potential. If we figure that patterns shift every 45 days or so, then we could realistically expect to go mild for most of January and into February, with a shot at something near the end of the winter. It would suck to lose prime climo, but there's no use worrying about it. If...IF...we can somehow cash in early in the season then getting anything of note the rest of the winter would be relative gravy.

That was exactly what I was thinking. On both counts.

I agree about timing, but how can we make ANY claims about how November will end up when we're two days into the month?