mattie g

Good catch. My quick analysis looked at the previous 9 years. Edit: Here's the updated table. Interesting to see the '30s, '50s, '70s, and '90s in here - every 20 years being represented until you get into the 2000s, when it skips to the 2020s. 2022-23: 9.14 1976-77: 11.44 1955-56: 12.01 1954-55: 12.13 1994-95: 12.71 1975-76: 12.86 1931-32: 13.79 1974-75: 13.87 1953-54: 14.03 1956-57: 14.11 2021-22: 14.13 1952-53: 14.46 1993-94: 14.46 1977-78: 14.49 1932-33: 14.81 1973-74: 15.47 1991-92: 15.76 1930-31: 15.93 2020-21: 16.17 1951-52: 16.50

Yeah. The '60s were just so consistent from year to year, and even the lesser years had nearly 20". The 50s averages were skewed by a dead ratter in 1949-1950 and a bad year in 1950-1951, but there were no truly good years to offset those until you got to 1957-1958 (and by that time the 7-year average timespan had gone). 1967-68: 33.93 1968-69: 32.21 1966-67: 31.78 1965-66: 31.73 1963-64: 29.86 1964-65: 29.80 1969-70: 29.38 1911-12: 28.76 1910-11: 28.47 1970-71: 26.91 1906-07: 26.82 1912-13: 26.69 1971-72: 26.29 1909-10: 26.06 2010-11: 26.00 1940-41: 25.87 1941-42: 25.69 1961-62: 25.50 1962-63: 25.22 1913-14: 24.72

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20: 1956-57: 13.27 1976-77: 13.30 1955-56: 14.16 2022-23: 14.20 1975-76: 14.67 1954-55: 14.82 1991-92: 15.01 1977-78: 15.04 1957-58: 15.83 1932-33: 15.96 1994-95: 16.07 1952-53: 16.07 1992-93: 16.11 1958-59: 16.20 1980-81: 16.57 1931-32: 16.59 1953-54: 16.60 2019-20: 16.79 1993-94: 16.89 1951-52: 17.01 I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

I'm not quite sure what you're expecting from a seasonal model, but that's a really good signal for precip...and precip of the frozen variety.

They do? It does?

I *think* it means that, if we want a better shot at below normal temps in winter, then we should root for a chilly October rather than a chilly November, but perhaps my reading comprehension isn't as good as it once was.

You have to understand that EJ will always identify even one pixel of perceived negative data and make sweeping statements about the negative results for us.

Saw a completely black one on a walk the other night. Only one I've seen so far this season, so I take it as a good omen.

What trend?

Missed January 2018 in my notes - we had 10" as well. Really interesting how you can definitely see how the atmosphere is responding to the change in seasons as each run looks out further into October.

Yeah...but F lantern flies.

We got 2" from that one here, but more than 9" from the early-January 2022 event. That 2022 one was cool because it flipped from light rain to ripping snow while temps dropped during the day.

<fearful weenie> NO NOVEMBER SNOW! </fearful weenie>

Only 16 degrees shy of the daily record.

We've so far escaped them in my neck of Fairfax County, but I'm assuming it's a matter of time. We went apple picking in Berryville this weekend and I killed all three that I saw. Was up in South Jersey about six weeks ago and didn't see nearly as many as I did at the same time last year. My dad said that they weren't as plentiful as they had been in the previous couple years, so I guess that's good.

That's a pretty ludicrous look. And January isn't much worse.

It does shift the blocking a little west, but that Low by the Aleutians and the PNA look much nicer.

BWI: Nov 9 IAD: Oct 28 DCA: Nov 20 RIC: Nov 9 BWI departure: +0.9

Change "x.com" to www.twitter.com"

Could have said that right after Maria, but I was there last year, and the rumor of its demise has been greatly exaggerated.

I definitely want to get out there sometime. Wife has been wanting to do a weekend trip with our girls, so maybe in the next couple weeks. Heading to Berryville for apple picking this Saturday. Won't be quite what it's like by you, but should be starting to show some color.

Same here...