mattie g
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Everything posted by mattie g
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But we don’t have 2” of rain yet, so you’re supposed to meh this thing. -
Wife just booked us a house right next to the mountaintop village at Snowshoe for the four-day Fairfax County Schools weekend at the beginning of November - four nights and two full days in total. This is the first time we've had a long weekend as a family other than visiting the in-laws in HHI. Shooting to just enjoy the post-leaf fall scenery, a few hikes, and some time away. Hoping for some early-season flakes while we're there!
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Peacharine Dry-Hopped Pseudo Sue from Toppling Goliath and The Common from Trillium...so far.
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Stay true to form and admit that Aldie is a shithole, too.
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But the models are drying up!
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Right? We have to expect small changes in the bullseyes, as we always do. Just because a stripe of heaviest rain shifts further west or east doesn't mean that the system is drying up. Someone will end up with 2-3x...maybe even 4x more rain than other places - its just how these things work.
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Whether that loop happens or not, that block is a beast.
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12km NAM isn't appreciably different from 00z or 18z.
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They did?
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Danger Zone?
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Just picked up a 4-pack of My Only Friend, a recently released BA stout from Ocelot. Looking forward to cracking one on Saturday!
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Pretty uninteresting story, actually!
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meatspin.gif? Edit: If you don't know what it is, don't google it at work.
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I think many of us really came to accept this last winter. Pretty striking how consistent it used to be with not making big shifts from run to run compared to how flip-floppy it was last winter...nevermind the "caving" to the other models (particularly the GFS).
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Seems we have.
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I'll be on the porch on Saturday and Sunday mornings with coffee in hand and watching soccer!
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Or equating September wavelengths or upper air features to those in the depths of winter is a bit simplistic.
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12z GFS at 006 looks similar to the same time on the 06z.
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12k NAM throwing 1.5"-3.00" area-wide through 00z Sunday.
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We've all learned that the Euro is just another average model. Haven't we?
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Last two runs, it's wanted to run a stripe of seriously heavy precip from south to north somewhere through our area. If that were to happen, whoever is on the receiving end will get rocked.
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GFS looking similar to 0z, if even a little west with the heavier rains.
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12z is looking OK, as well.
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It's looking real, but definitely a shot that this thing gets blocked to all hell and leaves us relatively dry.
