mattie g

Canadian and Euro still want to hang that boundary around here on Halloween and then spin up a bit of a coastal on the 1st. GFS brings the front through and slides energy south and off the coast the following day. I'd definitely like some rain, but I don't want it on Halloween again this year!

I picked up My Only Friend from Ocelot a couple weeks ago and it's amazing. BA stout with no adjuncts - pure stout and that wonderful barrel character. I need to get back out there and load up with whatever cans they have left!

Just don't f'ing rain on Halloween...

Snowicane!

For sure. Definitely not the same thing, but it's like how Denver often gets snow. It's 60 and sunny for days on end and then they get dumped on at 15 degrees.

We also had the very cold storm at the end of January that ushered in the epic stretch. Overall, I remember that winter being not terribly cold, but it was certainly cold enough when it needed to be.

I was thinking the same, then I starting paying attention and still noticed plenty of mistakes.

I'm flipping through DT's slides today and it's surprisingly well written and quite digestible for a complete novice like me. Really good stuff.

But were those Modoki ratters or are you referring to crappy Nino winters without looking at where the SST anomalies were located? 91-92 *was* a Modoki, right? I realize that I'm maybe focusing a bit too much on the type of Nino, but that does seem like *the* significant similarity between the two winters, thus it stands to reason that the significant difference in snowfall in both years (or even between 91-92 and other Modokis) could very well have been the result of an anomalous event that occurred in the 1991 timeframe.

Thanks for this! I'm certainly no expert, but I did do a little researching on the Googles before making that post (and wouldn't have made the post had I not at least read about what I claimed). Yes...I realize that there may have been other factors involved, but everything I saw pointed to Pinatubo having a major effect on increasing the +AO values in 91-92.

Crazy to hear about 50s and 60s out there at that time of the year, but it's been a miserable stretch of winter for everyone! It's been too long for us. We used to go to Snowshoe as a group before kids, but we're ready to jump back into it! Really looking forward to this. The last two years have just sucked in general, so hopefully the lack of a raging Nina will help bring some goods. 18" OTG would be great, but I'd be happy with enough to cover the soles of my shoes and some flakes flying!

For sure, but I think it's pretty well agreed that Pinatubo was the big reason why 91-92 had a very +AO. I think that's key when you compare the Nino values for the two winters he mentioned.

A group of our friends just booked a ski-in, ski-out place for our five families near the top of Wisp for December 27-30. First time out there. Hoping for at least a little snowpack at the house to amp up the Holiday feel while we're there!

Pinatubo

Apart from that one mini meltdown against the Braves, the Phils are very much the same.

But you can't extrapolate a pattern in the beginning of fall out through winter. I'm not sure why anyone is handwringing right now.

Because small sample sizes are indicative of long-term returns?

^ But aren't you concerned about the lack of blocking we've seen so far this month?!

I thought the concern is precip being south and east.

Good catch. My quick analysis looked at the previous 9 years. Edit: Here's the updated table. Interesting to see the '30s, '50s, '70s, and '90s in here - every 20 years being represented until you get into the 2000s, when it skips to the 2020s. 2022-23: 9.14 1976-77: 11.44 1955-56: 12.01 1954-55: 12.13 1994-95: 12.71 1975-76: 12.86 1931-32: 13.79 1974-75: 13.87 1953-54: 14.03 1956-57: 14.11 2021-22: 14.13 1952-53: 14.46 1993-94: 14.46 1977-78: 14.49 1932-33: 14.81 1973-74: 15.47 1991-92: 15.76 1930-31: 15.93 2020-21: 16.17 1951-52: 16.50

Yeah. The '60s were just so consistent from year to year, and even the lesser years had nearly 20". The 50s averages were skewed by a dead ratter in 1949-1950 and a bad year in 1950-1951, but there were no truly good years to offset those until you got to 1957-1958 (and by that time the 7-year average timespan had gone). 1967-68: 33.93 1968-69: 32.21 1966-67: 31.78 1965-66: 31.73 1963-64: 29.86 1964-65: 29.80 1969-70: 29.38 1911-12: 28.76 1910-11: 28.47 1970-71: 26.91 1906-07: 26.82 1912-13: 26.69 1971-72: 26.29 1909-10: 26.06 2010-11: 26.00 1940-41: 25.87 1941-42: 25.69 1961-62: 25.50 1962-63: 25.22 1913-14: 24.72

If you take the previous 7-year average of BWI annual snowfalls for all years from 1900-present, here's the worst 20: 1956-57: 13.27 1976-77: 13.30 1955-56: 14.16 2022-23: 14.20 1975-76: 14.67 1954-55: 14.82 1991-92: 15.01 1977-78: 15.04 1957-58: 15.83 1932-33: 15.96 1994-95: 16.07 1952-53: 16.07 1992-93: 16.11 1958-59: 16.20 1980-81: 16.57 1931-32: 16.59 1953-54: 16.60 2019-20: 16.79 1993-94: 16.89 1951-52: 17.01 I have it on good authority that weenies were jumping off cliffs in the 50s.

How can you people remember who called what for a winter from 14 years ago?

I'm not quite sure what you're expecting from a seasonal model, but that's a really good signal for precip...and precip of the frozen variety.