mattie g

Looks promising.

But why take a snapshot of one point in time and make a sweeping generalization about how things could go to hell? Roll that 500 look forward and you have the TPV pinched under that massive block with a piece of energy ejecting out under it from the southwest...and it's cold. There's no reason to think that a strong Nino will result in a SE ridge that would blast us with warm air and kill our snow chances during prime climo.

I mentioned this in the banter thread because I really don't know anything, but I'll throw it out here. If you check the last couple days of runs, you'll that the low pops up to the north of Lake Superior. As that thing has deepened and shifted ever so slightly, our thermals have worsened. Not saying that's the only thing that's going wrong, but it can't be coincidental.

12/6: T 12/11: 1.25" - Calling it that since the closest trained spotter was at 1.4" and I log in 0.25" increments and didn't want to round up. 1/1: T

Lots of talk about the storm and the rain/snow line among the parents at the bus stop the last two days. I've just been telling people to hold off to see where things were come today...and here we are.

I'll say this...it feels like every time we've had a modicum of a threat in the last couple/few years (not counting January 2022), a low pops up somewhere in the Great Lakes region. Our thermals get wrecked and we're done for. Every. Single. Time. I know that atmospheric physics is much more complicated than that one thing, but it's just too noticeable...and it's happening again with this storm. That Low that has been showing up near Lake Superior over the 36 hours or so of model runs, and as that thing has deepened just a little and edged ever closer to the Lakes, our thermals have gone to shit. Most of us were pretty close to the R/S line for many of these runs, but once that thing showed up where it did, we were done for.

After going to Wisp last week, my wife was like "That's it! We need to buy a house out here." Darling...that sounds like a wonderful idea, but

That's a gorgeous place!

Makes sense as you describe it. While I don't have a ton of leeway in marginal situations, you guys on that side of the bay have even less. Last night's runs definitely got me feeling good - it felt like we had turned things around across the board - but today has almost certainly proven that optimism to be misplaced. Just sucks, but I suppose we move on.

I'm certainly not giving up on winter or anything, but I feel like the writing may well be on the wall for MBY for this event.

After the positive vibes from the 0z runs, 6z and 12z have me starting to creep towards the exit door.

Seems a *bit* overdone for such a fast mover, but man...being right on this R/S line is leaving me with few to no fingernails already.

Per the CMC on TT, it f'ing pours IMBY on Saturday evening at probably 34 degrees.

I've been on that line for virtually every model run - whether on one side or the other - for the last 36 hours. I've been on the wrong side slightly more often, so I'm more than a little twitchy.

"I'll tell you more on Friday" One life lesson: "I don't know" is a perfectly valid answer to many questions.

Looking forward to my drizzly Saturday evening. NAM at 84...lol.

I know a lot of folks on here love when the sun is dead and it's gray and chilly, but once we get into the new year, I really do start looking forward to the increase in sunlight each day. The sign leading out of my neighborhood now says "Happy New Year! Think warm. [Pool] opening day on 5/25!"

It's not just the GFS that's had these little blips.

This storm sucks

I thought about leaving the Christmas lights up until Sunday, so I take my part of the blame for this fiasco. As it is, they're staying up until I can take them down in the pouring rain on Saturday.

Ooooh...that's a good one. But of course we should have seen that coming since this whole thing was fraught with the danger of it being a big rainer!

I'll worry about that until we're 24 hours out. I'll also worry about a primary running up into Ohio until 24 hours out. ...and a wound-up, tucked bomb that pulls in tropical air off the Gulf Stream and a weak, strung-out POS that drizzles into 39-degree air. I'm sure there are other worries, but I'm kind of tired of thinking about them now.

And suddenly we have people saying that "this was always going to be marginal for the area" and "this was never setup in which the region would score" despite plenty of guidance showing otherwise. Drives me f'ing bonkers.

Every time there's a marginal event, the folks who live 50 miles north and west of the cities tell everyone not to worry when there's a wobble that moves the rain/snow line 10 miles to the NW. Of course, snow in a MBY thing...and freaking out should be kept for the Panic Room, but I do wish that some folks realized that there are plenty (a majority?) of people on the boards live in the potential screw zone and have a reason to be concerned.