mattie g

You have no idea whether those are relaxations from the base state or if they're portents to a longer-term move to less favorable states.

I'm choosing not to get invested in placement of any specific threat outside of three days. I think the models are doing a good job of seeing windows, but with all the crazy sh*t happening in the atmosphere, they just can't nail down specifics at any sort of extended range. As Luvr has pointed out many times, the GFS shows a very different vort look at every six hours, so with all that interaction there's simply no way to be confident in what will happen in my little slice of backyard beyond a few days.

It feels like every year there's discussion of SWFEs, but how often do they actually happen here? And would they actually happen in a Nina (even an atypical one)?

Holy sh*t...I see blue sky out of my home office!!!

Question: If a block is supposed to slow down the flow and, in theory, make it easier for models to "understand" what's going to happen, then why do we have so many fast-moving vorts flying all over the place right now, thus leading to model chaos?

PSU's unwillingness to use "than" puts me on tilt.

Fairfax County putting a decision on hold for another month. Good decision, even though everyone wants their kids back in school.

Whatever happens, if this weekend’s ultimate solution plays out at 500 as it’s being modeled now, it’ll be a perfect of example of the amazing ability of weather models to accurately represent atmospheric physics.

Sweet. I could really use some enhanced showers here.

PSU is about the only person who replies to He Who Must Be Ignored. If we can just bring him into the light, then we might be able to keep the long-range threads from getting sh*tted up on the regular.

You've told us that already.

Is it me, or do northern stream storms tend to bomb out a lot more/more quickly than do any of the others? Is this just because storms have the chance to deepen more as they reach New England or is there something in the physics that causes it to happen? I ask especially because the 2/10/10 storm was pretty ferocious - much more so than most of our snowstorms.

FYP

Looks great!

Thank you for the mid- to long-range analysis.

Great analysis of the mid to long range in the last page. Really top notch.

We’re cracking the 2020 Anniversary bottle (aged in Weller 12-year barrels) and 2017 Reserve (aged in 11-year Knob Creek barrels), and will follow that with a couple cans of Parish Holy Ghost. We’re going to have the same stout share this time next year. Nice list! Keeping those beers for double-digit years is really impressive! I feel the pain on ruining your vertical in a moment of weakness . I have 2014 and 2016-2020 stouts, as well as a 2014 barleywine. Jealous of those older bottles, but I’d never be able to pull the trigger on drinking them!

Wife and I are starting Drynuary on Sunday...because there’s no way in hell we could go two weekend nights in a row after the last two weeks. I feel a bit of relief that I’ve got a couple more days to go, but I’m fearful of my mental state come next Sunday evening.

Been entertaining our girls most of the day, but finally have some down time. Of course, the weather is disgusting, so I’m watching DVRed soccer. Could be worse, I suppose. Will be sitting by the heater under the carport and cracking some special release Bourbon County stout bottles with my buddy later.

OK. That’s pretty dumb.

I feel like I missed something that was well worth reading. Kind of.

I would very much like them to be federally legal. Congrats to those who don’t have to worry about that!

Congrats, Incheon.

It was nearly the same a bit ago before the light rain moved in amd wind picked up. Now it’s 45 here, but nowhere close to frozen!