mattie g

It's funny to see how many folks from PA keep commenting on the "north trend" for the Sunday/Monday event. We get it...you want it to snow more in your neck of the woods, but saying it isn't going to make it happen.

Went mostly remote during COVID (all in-office before that), then the announcement came in the beginning of this year to be in the office three days per week. Luckily, at the same time my company needed someone with my specific skills to run another program whose team has been fully distributed (per the contract) since before COVID. Been a nice move for many reasons, and working from home is definitely up there (especially because the old project may be back in the office full time soon)!

As for the Ignore function, I really wish this software allowed you to ignore quoted posts!

Re: 234...Slow the southern vort down a little bit and the northern one could drop in behind it. That pulls things a bit north and it all phases with that lobe dropping in from the northeast. Simple, right?

I'll always remember zwyts/Deck Pic saying years ago something about how we often end well around here as the upper energy swings through. I even notice similar during events in the warmer months. Those are always nice snows because they do like you say - they freshen things up with a small layer of fluff.

But that comparison could also be the result of timing differences (storm moving faster/slower) between runs. It's all splitting hairs anyways. For most of us, things haven't really changed, though I appreciate that some (me included) are teetering on the edge of either missing out on big totals or missing out entirely.

It's cold through the whole column, as well...so cold that DC doesn't even flirt with mixing. I can't help but feel that cold is a little overdone, but the proverbial wiggle room is there.

After the Euro at 00z and 06z, I assume no one is saying that the trend is obvious now, as we read in so many places after 18z yesterday (and that "obvious trend" was anything but). Let's be honest...the goalposts haven't really shifted much at all in the last couple days if you look at guidance overall. We all know that, at gametime, someone will be disappointed because they'll be just out of the max snow and someone will be thrilled because they'll get smacked when they didn't expect it. Based on history, we can assume the folks further north will be in the latter group, but there's no guarantee of that...and just because we see one run bump either way doesn't mean anything in regards to the final outcome until after the snow stops. I think the most interesting part of this is the expected staying power of the snowpack. It's been quite a while since we've had snow that sticks around for a decent period of time, so it'll be pretty cool to experience that again (though I'm sure I'll be sick of it in a week).

Canadian says we CAD. Hard.

This storm sucks

Euro has been amazingly consistent in giving DC and south a decent smack down. I’d be surprised if it verified with that much snow, but I’m feeling pretty good about the precip max stripe.

F mitch’s Ukie. I’m in on the Euro.

I hope for us that it’s a brutal miss on your part, but that you enjoy the vacation!

I’ve got literally zero skin in this game and really couldn’t care less about whether there’s some sort of conspiracy going on with model output. I’m just tired of your regular interjections into discussion threads that say the same thing - “show all possibilities and claim victory afterwards.” Like…who really cares?

Can you PLEASE stop with this?

I was just typing this up. Really diggy with the ridge out west beefing up.

So…you’re saying there’s another blizzard after this one? I’m in!

My man…can you take this stuff to banter? Much appreciated.

I want all the snows, but I wouldn’t be upset with 6-8” on the 6th followed by real cold and an inch or so on the 10th. Upside is pretty big looking through January, so I’d be thrilled with some real winter to kick things off and let things shake out for the rest of the season.

Drove to a kennel just south of Culpeper to meet a couple dogs we’re looking to possibly adopt. It took forfuckingever to get there. Had no idea it was so far away.

Looked (to me, at least) like the OP was lining up a big dog at H5 after the first storm, but it didn’t happen. I think we’ll see multiple potential hit windows across the suites as we move forward.

Mitch!

11/21: T (grauplets) 11/22: T (SnowTV for an hour or so, followed by drizzle) 12/1: T (on-and-off small snow showers for about an hour) 12/24: T (some light sleet in the morning left a coating)

What’s the Ulaanbaatar Index looking like right now?