mattie g
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Everything posted by mattie g
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If I were to sum up this post for someone who didn’t want to read it, this is how I’d do it: Modoki and moderate Ninos are very good around here. This is what PSU’s analysis shows about the height anamolies for those years. It’s INSANE that a Nina is showing a progged pattern that literally mirrors the average height anomalies of those best Nino years. This is why people are excited by the potential (remember…it’s just potential!) of the upcoming period. Fantasic post, PSU!
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It’s about time we had something to be excited about. Now watch us get shut out.
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I think the ops out to about a week give a good feel for timing of possible events. Ensembles will help as you go farther out. This is all said with a HUGE asterisk next to it. Surface weather on any model looking out beyond three days in a relatively volatile pattern can’t be trusted, but they give you a feel for the timing of potential events IYBY.
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Agreed. I wouldn’t be surprised if something pops up in that time. Long-range monster snowstorms are [incredibly!] fun to see modeled, but there’s just no reason to pay attention to details on ops at range. We say it all the time, and I understand why folks want the odd crazy solution to come true, but we just need to take it as one of innumerable possible ultimate solutions.
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I know you know this, but we won’t be locked into anything unless we get a killer block and a real southern stream storm. We’re going to see crazy solutions up and down the east coast in the medium to long range while we’re in this pattern. Those exact solutions will come and go, but someone will eventually cash in on an event in which the models will give weenies decent confidence at about 72 hours out (whether it’s us that gets hit or those farther northeast).
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For that group, drink “up” in terms of ABV. Basically, drink the smaller beers first, as those might seem lacking in flavor if you follow a beer that’s significantly higher in alcohol. I’d also suggest drinking the more bitter beers first (regardless of ABV), as they may come off as astringent if you follow a soft IPA with a bitter IPA.
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He’s also a troll and should be added to everyone’s ignore list.
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Mid-Atlantic winter 2021-22 snowfall contest
mattie g replied to PrinceFrederickWx's topic in Mid Atlantic
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It’s disappointing that this thread has fewer posts in it than the January 7 thread.
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I think it might get frustrating to a lot of us, in that stuff that looks good may pop up and then disappear, but there may also be situations like the last week when storms pop up in the relatively short term. Just a give and take we may have to make. If we really do get a nice block with a STJ popping up, we might have a longer track, but I'm not planning for that, even with the look we're seeing now.
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Throw in +PNA and -EPO for the final ingredients in one of the most delicious alphabet soups a Mid-Atlantic weather weenie can slurp down.
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Don't concern yourself with snowfall maps The snowfall map (at least on TT) isn't yet out to 384 The pattern is fantastic. Look at that first and foremost and let the chips fall. There's reason to be excited (tempered excitement, of course) by it.
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Did I see a phase happening at 240?
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Just given how time periods usually line up, if we score a couple times between now and the end of the month, I can absolutely imagine a situation in which events would be hard to come by in much of February. I wouldn't give up at that point, though, as I could then see things lining up once more for a couple weeks as February turns to March.
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Not that most of us need reminding...but this shows how early-winter snow isn't usually a thing around here. I'm not particularly interested in a winter than runs into mid-March, but I'd certainly take and earlier 2013-2014!
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No doubt! I'm not complaining - just that I rode the GFS hard and really wanted it to verify. As it is, I'll absolutely take a foot of snow in one week in the beginning of January. as you said...this is better than anything we've had in the last couple years, and honestly it's about as wintry as we can expect for an extended period around here!
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Mid-Atlantic forum winter 2021/22 snow totals thread
mattie g replied to North Balti Zen's topic in Mid Atlantic
11/30: T 12/8: T 1/3: 9.25" 1/7: 2.75" Total as of 1/7: 12" -
I always assume a little compaction if we get snow overnight and it's at least a couple hours until I can measure. I usually wait until I see other measurements from close by and see if they're in line with mine on the margins. I'm obviously not a spotter or anything.
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I really like this one. The visuals are such a better touch. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow
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I rode the GFS train to frowntown, but if I'm being honest, I'm OK with 2.75" after going over 9" on Monday. 12" on the season at the end of the first week of January isn't shabby at all!
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First snow for the metal roof on our new porch. We haven’t put up the snow guards yet, so everything is sliding down. Really cool to watch the “snow slide” grow over the last few hours!
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It’s certainly squeaky bum time here in Burke…
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Congrats mountains of West Virginia. Where’s my snow?
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I was out and about yesterday evening, so I couldn't see a lot, but I certainly noticed the damage to white pines in the area. Heading out this morning and I'm curious to see it all in the light of day.
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Great little area…why not? I know that intersection well…
