mattie g

Interesting locations of the surface low on the Icon. In each three hour increment, it goes from Williamsburg to Fredericksburg to Fairfax, then speeds up and over Newark, NJ another three hours later.

I told my wife that, while we couldn't imagine leaving this neighborhood while the kids are young, I would love to eventually have a place along the southeast coast where I could fish and play golf nearly year-round, but also a place in the mountains where I could go to get my winter fix when needed. I'm not interested in long periods of meh winter weather, so getting away in those dreary months with a mountain place as an option for the fix would be ideal. Bonus is having places that the kids (and maybe eventually grandkids, if I live long enough ) would be happy to visit! Now...I just need the funds to make this all happen...

You're right - we would see some snow on the front end, and we should appreciate it while the snow is falling, but the reality with that solution is that the snow would be washed and melted away quite quickly. Might be tough to enjoy when we know what's coming in just a few hours.

A 50-mile shift isn't a big deal at all, but those of us who have been around long enough know that getting a storm to shift east is a lot harder than getting it to shift west. Not saying it's impossible, but the last day has understandably sucked the excitement out of a lot of folks.

The biggest difference between now and, say, 10 years ago is that a lot of us long-timers aren't up for dealing with the bullsh*t any more. We've gotten older and wiser, have other priorities in life, we like to yell at clouds, etc., and the mods (understandably) don't have the wherewithal to deal with the new folks that muck things up. I mean...I distinctly recall getting smacked down by Randy when I was relatively new and being a bit of a prick, so I cleaned up my act and got with the program. I'm sure plenty of others have done the same. It doesn't help that "weather Twitter" and the like are a thing now, and that pros and serious hobbyists are taking their knowledge there, rather than interacting with folks on weather boards. If this place is to remain, there's going to come a time when either the younger/newer faces will need to step in and help steer the ship, with long-timers hopefully finding it a place worth sticking around.

Steamer

It just seems like such an odd track for the surface low. Not saying that it’s wrong…just that it’s odd. How often do we get lows running right up the fall line?

Came here to say the same. I mean…I thought it looked a little better to start, but my not knowing sh*t about weather was quickly confirmed.

I already want off this ride.

So...give you the cold and you'll take your chances with precip?

“CTE loves this post”

Before or during COVID? Because, depending on your answer, that could make me feel good or not so good.

I'll take it, but I'm confused as to how the surface reflects what's going on at 500. Is it because the flow is flatter behind that big storm that in it on the GFS?

It's going to be awful, and it's starting already. What'll make it worse is when people start quoting the people I have on ignore.

Not sure about the rest of you, but I'm definitely seeing the back edge of this upcoming promising period and feeling the need to deb everyone up. Yeah!

Awful, awful day. The only negative to snowfall: cold, rainy melt.

Aaaaaand…ignored.

Honestly, man…dafuq are you going on about?

Didn’t realize it was a bust down here, as well. All Philly mets were honking huge storm for us, but we totally whiffed. As PSU mentioned (and as I saw with my own eyes), it was a big’un at the Shore.

42 and rain on top of good snowpack is pretty bad, too.

I mentioned similar to luvr yesterday. We’re going to see big storms pop up on guidance and then disappear, only for others to pop up two runs later with the “new” threats being on completely different days. Someone is going to get smacked - maybe multiple times - before this runs its course. It could well be us or we could whiff completely (which I doubt), but the pattern is ripe.

I remember both the 1987 and 1989 events you mentioned…but especially 1989. Unlike today, we almost never had school cancelled the day before a snowfall, but in this case we did. I woke up disappointed, no doubt, but I recall shooting hoops at a friend’s house for much of the morning since there wasn’t a flake on the ground. That afternoon, my parents took me and my little sister to Ocean City to get our (and my dad’s!) fix. I distinctly remember the drifts that had piled up on the boardwalk businesses - well up to the roofs on many of them!

If I were to sum up this post for someone who didn’t want to read it, this is how I’d do it: Modoki and moderate Ninos are very good around here. This is what PSU’s analysis shows about the height anamolies for those years. It’s INSANE that a Nina is showing a progged pattern that literally mirrors the average height anomalies of those best Nino years. This is why people are excited by the potential (remember…it’s just potential!) of the upcoming period. Fantasic post, PSU!

It’s about time we had something to be excited about. Now watch us get shut out.