mattie g

Would love to, but the parents stopped by on their way to snowbird down in Florida. Maybe next time!

Ah shit…I have PI Planning this Tuesday and Wednesday. Only good thing is that my scrum masters will be taking the reins for my dev teams this time around (with my guidance), whereas I used to handle it all for my team of 30. The Friday deal is going to be all over the guidance until 48-72 hours out. As long as we remain in the game, it’ll make this week much more bearable.

I was going to say…there’s nothing keeping this storm from racing to the NE. With the current look, I think someone could get 8-10 hours of good snow, but not what we usually think of as a really big one. Maybe like a 6-8” event, which would be awesome, but not a truly big boy.

It’ll absolutely be a lot of work, but it’s a neighborhood-oriented team and would be a lot of fun.

You’re retired, so I think it’s less crazy than my considering it.

I’m getting sucked into possibly being one of two swim team reps this summer. @H2O…tell me I’m (not) crazy for seriously considering it…

Sending up an extra prayer for you and your family, WxWatcher…

I just want that high-amplitude push into 8 that the forecast was showing like 10 days ago.

Folks have said it before, but outward-facing social media (i.e., Twitter and Facebook) that are driven by clicks and follows and shares, and which "prove" the popularity of a given met or hobbyist, have sucked a good many quality posters away from message boards. It also doesn't help that - for the most part - our winter weather simply doesn't produce the goods on a regular enough basis to drive interesting discussion. I'm sure that if we were staring down the barrel of a Modoki Nino with blocking, then this place would light up and a lot of the "old" posters would come back for discussion, but otherwise we're just a place for weather nerds to chat.

I honestly didn’t hate the warm day today. If it’s not going to be cold on Christmas, then I’ll take the warmth. Kids loved it. Just had the gustiest shower in a couple months. Pretty impressive. Should probably have qualified for our severe thread.

Midwest has trended slightly colder while the east torched? UHI has helped highlight AGW?

We all need to make educated decisions on which posters to interact with.

I'm sure it'll be fine.

But what locks that vortex in? And what locks in the thing that locks that in? This is where I get confused. Something has to set the baseline for the overall hemispherical (global?) wavelength pattern, right? What's the chicken and what's the egg?

Exactly. That we refer to the "Drought" thread when it's dry is kind of sad. It's like how we use our severe thread to discuss a gusty line of showers.

The last thing I worry about in November and December is dry conditions. The sun is so low that the ground is still moist even without much rainfall.

I mean...it wouldn't be a bad thing, but something is obviously wonky. Seems odd that there would be a huge jump in where convection blows up from one day to the next.

I looked at that earlier and was going to mention it, but you put it way more eloquently than I could have.

There's just an amazing agreement in general between both the GEPS and GEFS going out through the end of the run. The main difference I can see is that the GEPS noses the EPO ridge up into the AO domain, but it's pretty far out there. Stunning to me to see how in line they are.

Hostas don't give a sh*t. Them and roaches will still be here after the apocalypse.

I'm happy to look at it remaining stable in time on the ensembles. We're just looking at long-wave patterns and general trends, but I'm absolutely with you that long-range deterministic modeling is just for show. Nothing to look at until things shuffle a bit, so might as well focus on the beginning of January when things will hopefully look a little more promising as we get closer in time.

Was about to post the same. EPO re-establishes itself just after the new year and connects to the NAO. 50/50 heights remain low throughout. Would love to see that EPO ridge shift just a little east though. Even so...that cold in NW Canada gets released and pushes to the SE. We also see the increased precip anomalies from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic towards the end of the run. That's another thing that's been noticeable for quite a few runs now.

You need to be involved in #natgas. Only then - and with a substantial outlay - will you get the good stuff from them.