Stevo6899

Obviously Minneapolis has nothing to complain about but it's kind of a bummer how this system and snow bands shit the bed once it get out of the NE. I wish I was more advanced in meteorology to understand why this system fell apart/occluded so quickly.

Perhaps it's Josh rubbing off on me or the florida sun but let's keep it positive. We're in a rutt but things can change quickly. I'm feeling this one for dtw and ord crew.

One of these times we're gonna break that trend. In this case if it does end up being weaker then let it miss to the South. I know we're all snow starved, but me personally, I'll pass on a weaker storm. As a few meteorologists on here have stated I think the pattern right now relies less on phasing so we might have a better chance if we can get a decent low. I believe this storm has gulf origin so I doubt moisture will be an issue. If this is gonna be the one to intensify, I'd rather be on the Northwest fringes at this point.

Like I stated in the banter thread, I'd like where I'm sitting if I was in Chicago, west Michigan. Buffer for intensification.

It's good to see all models have the storm, and pretty decent agreement too. All u can ask for at this point. Still scared of the nw trend lol. Always wanna be a lil nw of potential big daddys.

Almost 2 feet reported west of broken bow NE. Perhaps the TD totals did materialize this time. Maybe one day I'll get to witness a 2 footer in my neck of the woodz...

I'm confused. Parts of Nebraska are getting 12-18.

Now they track thru chicago/cmi or inland up i95. Stuck in betweenzzzz. I've always said a low has a hard time staying dominant/taking the track you stated as a transfer to a secondary occurs often. Once In awhile you'll get a low to stay dominant and take your stated track but seems like 10+ years since it's happened.

Ya gotta get thru your 90 day probation b4 you can suggest anything...

I said that 4 years ago when I became a snowbird and started going down to florida dec thru march. I don't believe my backyard has seen a legit 8+ snowstorm since, so I don't think anyone needs to prepare for anything lol.

Per usual, wait for this lead storm to roll through before getting too excited/bummed about the next one. As many have stated, atleast it's looks more active with some cold air to work with.

Euro trying to make next weekend interesting but would suck to miss this current one to the nw then the next to the se.

Obviously southern convection can rob cold sector precip, but can it also force the low to form/kinda tug it more south or straight east as it moves along?

Whoever wouldn't prefer to see it tick colder doesn't belong here lol. Gfs is starting to fizzle it out as it heads east. Trends die hard. Hopefully we get a respectable storm somewhere other than the upper midwest.

Per usual I think the track and evolution of this will be affected by how the first rain system rolls through first. The quicker, weaker, further north that goes, the more this system will most likely track further nw, maybe even more than the 12z gfs today.

Models aside, do you take into consideration/mention the trends the past few years of storms ending up weaker/se in your afd's/write ups/forecast pops.

Gfs weak, euro strengthens it a bit. Compromise and you got a track over dtw.

I guess it's good that the gfs is showing a weak turd slider for next weekend. Lately when it's shown a more wound up storm in this range, it's ended up as a weaker low, per the norm the last several years. Maybe we can break the shitty progressive turd slider slide we're on...

There's plenty we can do, bitch and whine about it on here without having to deal with you telling us winters gone as advertised, like that helps lol. Usual SEMI donut hole, least amount this far north. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/01/10/below-average-northeast-snow/

What annoys me is even when the enso is in our favor, we have winters like this year and the past few yrs where it's underwhelming as far as big dogs go. But when we're in a El Nino, the east coast gets atleast one big noreaster. Such is life I suppose not having a moisture source right next door.

Another one bites the progressive turd dust.

Can't ask for a better track for dtw than the 12z euro but as always there's something missing and this time the cold air and deformation band precip.

Your weenie math is off.

It's unreal the streak were on of systems we've seen end up weaker and scoot/slide SE instead of ramping up. I havent paid attention to the systems that have delivered for msp, but i think those ended up weaker even though they've delivered a few 6-12 events. I think with it being colder and better ratios has helped in the snow totals in those msp events. It's gotta be some kind of equations they're inserting in these model updates in the 80-130 hr time frame to have then portray amped up systems 4-7 days out.