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Stevo6899

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  1. Stevo6899
    I think without the confluence, this thing prob tracks through west Michigan so I guess it's atleast giving us the chance at a decent snowstorm. Still not big enough for me to hop on a plane for and fly home. There hasn't been one worthy storm the past 4 years to get me to fly home. Sigh...
  2. Stevo6899
    A man called jonger (otto).
  3. Stevo6899
    Dtx sneakily issuing watches for the city but leaves out macomb. Macomb thanks them cause areas that see less headlines, always end up with more.
  4. Stevo6899
    Pingers
  5. Stevo6899
    Dtx never fails to find the dry slot, and nam been saying it's maybe coming.
  6. Stevo6899
    As of now, my guess would be that the banding sets up west, say coldwater/Jackson/Howell, per usual wit this kinda track near toledo or just east of there. Either way it's fun to have something to atleast track.
  7. Stevo6899
    The differences at Hour 57 between the nam and rgem are lol worthy.
  8. Stevo6899
    Meanwhile dtx doesn't even involve itself in the standoff. They just stand in the corner laughing cause they know they not issuing warnings regardless. Interesting track and evolution on the 12z nam. Gets it down to 998, and closes off, which would setup banding somewhere in MI. I wonder why it doesn't keep tracking north and instead moves east? Confluence to the north?
  9. Stevo6899
    Curious if dtw will issue watches. The low looks to close off but not much precip in the deformation band once the low gets east of Detroit. Curious to see how this one evolves. Like many have stated, models struggle with phasing interactions.
  10. Stevo6899
    It is pretty wild to hear about it melting on contact due to the warm ground in the middle of the winter. Warm muggy and 85 down here in naples today.
  11. Stevo6899
    Meanwhile gfs now tracks it almost over detroit. Pretty impressive system
  12. Stevo6899
    Pretty decent banding has setup in detroit area points west to GRR. I see it spreads all the way down to Columbus and east dayton. Someone may reach a half a foot.
  13. Stevo6899
    6zrgem also looks similar, strengthening as it heads NE. That's key here and the difference between an 8-12 and 3-6. If it weakens as it head NE, it'll transfer alot quicker
  14. Stevo6899
    I dunno about that. While msp has had a good winter and this most recent storm delivered for NE, most of the systems this winter have been pretty weak and trended downward. This one, while a long ways to go, is trending in the weaker direction.
  15. Stevo6899
    12z gem a little weaker with the wave but still solid run. Gfs considerably weaker, less impressive.
  16. Stevo6899
    Interesting that they think this thing has the potential to go nw of here which is possible if earlier phasing occurs.
  17. Stevo6899
    Iol I've always felt bad for toledo/monroe/ nw Ohio cause the bands almost always used to end up further nw but nowadays I'm not so sure. It's hasn't happened in awhile.
  18. Stevo6899
    Let's see if we can break the streak and get a system that continues to be respectable and strengthens as it heads NE. I'm still feeling good about this one. Our patience has to pay off eventually...
  19. Stevo6899
    Lock in the 0z Canadian. Perfect track and it strengthens it as it moves NE, while the gfs weakens it. Concerns me that the euro keeps it fairly weak. I guess it all depends on the phasing interaction which hopefully will be figured out by the models by mon.
  20. Stevo6899
    Track is good for detroit but most importantly its good to see the models maintain the strength of the low as it moves NE and not weaken it/transfer to Miller b.
  21. Stevo6899
    Yea I was unaware there was phasing with the northern stream with this system. With that the case, anyone from ord to Cleveland is in play. It looks like an earlier phase would mean a stronger system and less likely to transfer to the coast as fast, if at all. Even without a phase, there should still be a respectable snowstorm somewhere. Let's hope it all comes together for the first time in years.
  22. Stevo6899
    He's lying Fer sure. Gfs says he should be scared of north.
  23. Stevo6899
    Just gotta hope it stays primary long enough before it starts to transfer to a secondary. Euro transfers earlier. That's why it's so hard to get a big dog for dtw. When lows do rarely track favorably, a coastal low steals the energy.
  24. Stevo6899
    As far as strengh goes, fortunately it doesn't bomb out or is all that impressive mb wise, but with the gom open for business, it doesn't need to be strong. Here's to the next 5 days feeling like a month.
  25. Stevo6899
    Yea if dtw is gonna miss this one, its gonna be to the nw. Gut feeling. All depends where the low ejects, deepens, etc
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