Stevo6899
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Everything posted by Stevo6899
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Ah I was so ready to rip on dtx as always, I forgot how to read lol.
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I think the models are struggling with the track as the low strengthens. usually when you have a deepening low like this it goes more North, like the gfs. Canadian/ukmet kinda shunt it east. Definitly delicate and bust potential.
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Meanwhile DTX has a snow map out already with three to four inches for the whole area through the weekend. Kind of surprised they even threw out totals considering the vast differences in the models. The last storm the GFS was right and had a weaker storm while the euro was wrong and had a stronger storm. Both portraying the opposite this go around. I'd hate to be the nws.
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Early look at gfs, it's gonna be on the amped side. You can tell early on the ridge and the gfs digs the low more, thus stronger, more nw.
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Still pretty drastic differences between the nam/gfs and the rgem/euro. Ukie is on the SE side also.
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Much like the nam, i find the HrrR pretty much useless past like 20 hours out. The rgem went se. Gfs nw. Who knows. Historically I'd be worried about a nw track but with seasonal trends and phasing involved here, I think this one has a better chance missing to the southeast.
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Widespread foot plus 10:1. I'd imagine with a low strenghthening like that, would produce better ratios and a kuchera map would be more accurate than with this previous storm.
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you can't have a better track, and evolution than the 0z rgem if your in metro detroit
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Took the words right out of my mouth, but still concerned lol.
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Ghd nw jog still haunts me. Alot of the biggies in my lifetime have had the big totals just to my nw so I'm always afraid of nw jogs. We are due for one.
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For as strong as the low is, the lack of cold sector precip on some models is a worry but long ways to go but not really lol. 2 days is an eternity as far as potential changes.
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At this rate, starting to feel like I wanna be further west than Detroit.
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Is this system currently coming ashore now in cali?
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Ukie is definitely not as robust as others with the waa snows out ahead. Curious if thats why its more nw than others. 3 days out and it could be a biggie, or just a few inches of waa snow here.
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Yeah the low pressure was mostly down south and a new low (1006mb which will get close to 1000 in canada) is just starting to get its act together in Ohio which is just a little bit too late to get the big totals with a positively tiled system like our friends up in Ontario are going to get.
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It's going as planned and still a long ways to go, atleast on the east side. Definitly nothing substantial tho. Better than nothing I suppose.
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Yeah the models had the snow starting there earlier it's going to be interesting to see the low develop next few hours for detroit area.
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Yea areas to the nw are gonna end up with more. Hopefully it'll start ripping soon further east.
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Euro running late or am I just off with the times it runs/dst?
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Rgem holding steady while short-term high-res models are keeping the bands further Nw. I think more than 12 hours out the rap and HHR tend to be too far Nw. That rain snow line stays just east in Canada. I'm curious what the ratios would be. temps look to be in the lower to mid-20s yet that rain snow line is so close.
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Super bowl, Detroit in 06.
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Apparently that's chicago now.
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I don't know how anybody could be confident in anything more than day out nowadays. Just yesterday a lot of the models had this first storm tracking west of Toledo. It's most likely not gonna track close to near that. The good news is it looks like there's going to be a pretty legit snow for somebody.
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18z rgem is best case scenario for whole detroit area, including Josh now. Wettest and snowiest run yet. Gfs too. I look forward to dtx issuing wwa then upgrading to a warning after 5 inches is already on the ground per usual.
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It's weird the low pressure system pretty much just gets shunted East as there must be confluence to the north. Usually in that case we see the low weakening but it doesn't lose strength as it shoots ENE. Doesn't really transfer energy either. Interesting trajectory/orientation.
