Think it may be more the gfs getting lucky with the outperformance so far. Lots of factors with phasing and the cold to the north. Will come down to now casting for those on the northern fringes
I lived in Austin for a year. Its like anywhere else, it can get cold but wait a few days and it's back to normal. I would never live anywhere further north in texas.
It was weird. Last night I was driving home and it was still 70 out. I had the windows down and it felt chilly. Im like wtf is happening. Normally even if its 50 im still warm down here. Im turning into a true Floridian. I think toledo may jackpot with this. They will be near the heavier precip and may max out with the ratios.
I don't care about the east coast anymore. They got the ocean to help aid storms. It sucks they out big dog us but I'm so used to it by now it doesn't bother me like it used to. It helps I'm in a warmer climate for sure. That useless cold for the next week is gross.
No thanks. Crazy there's gonna be almost a 100 degrees temp difference between my house in Michigan and Florida. It is pretty rare tho that y'all might see 6 inches on top of pretty decent snow depth already.
Yea dry air and virga worries me. Gonna be a sharp cutoff as always. I thought about flying back from Florida but for some reason this thing isn't getting me excited. Plus it's gonna be 80 down here the next 3 days.
There haven't been many opportunities in recent winters but it's their go to play. Everytime they issue a headline, I picture them with their feet up, stuffing their faces with donuts, waiting for the hookers/strippers to arrive for the evening.
Yea these scenarios always make me wonder if the low isn't that strong overall and the phasing is the only thing making this a storm. What's preventing the low from dropping below 1000 and kinda bombing/not transferring. Obviously beyond my meteorological knowledge. Cold high to the north shunting it?
The problem with this is that the low pressure isn't that strong overall mb wise so it transfers pretty quickly to a coastal low, which will limit totals this far north. Further south into Ohio should still get some goods before the transfer. Fluid situation tho with Miller b's.
The next 48 hours are a delicate time and anyone from south bend to say Pittsburgh is in play imo. We've seen 300+mile shifts several times in this time frame when phasing is involved.