Stevo6899

GFS pretty consistent on the heavy band in Indiana/Michigan. Don't usually like to be hoping for a SE jog, and rather be on the NW fringes, but detroit only a few counties away from the band. Heartbreaking cutoff.

Tbh this is how it feels for almost every storm. The models are good for highlighting the potential snow amounts, but where the bands setup always comes down to nowcasting.

I didn't think this thing would come SE like it did on the euro. Models struggling, and need this current low to roll through before they hone in on some consistency.

Yea I hear ya. At the end of the day, this is rehashed every winter. Some are okay with mediocrity and thats cool. The fact we've had nothing so far this winter doesnt alter anything for me. I want a big dog but I know it's hard for detroit to get one. We need a strong low to take a favorable track to our SE, and it needs to be strong enough not to allow a transfer to the coast. It's hard to get that based on our location and our history with the lack of big dogs portays this. Detroit needs a hooker dig and not strengthen until its a bit further east than this potential, or a gulf low that rides west of the apps. The potential issue with this storm is what the canadian is showing. The block halts the low, occluded, and transfers to the coast. That's not the recipe for a big dog. With that being said I know I should be grateful for what we get but I'm just a 40 yr old weenie at heart.

Yea and while those impacted detroit, areas to the west got a whole alot more snow. Im just at the point where I wanna be in the jackpot zone and I know that's hard to have happen. Panhandle hooks, the significant ones, aren't the best for us. Ghd 2011...

Yea I dont know how a storm to our sw is a classic track for detroit snowstorms. I will say the block that stebo mentions seems to be flexing when the low gets to Indiana. If it can halt the low like the 12z gfs, it could be interesting.

Yea still a bit to go but just going on past experiences. With a strenghtneing low coming out of arkansas, its not unusual for a low to go NNE, especially if the models are handling the strenghtneing right. Hoping for the best but just being realistic that's all. Maybe the models are overdoing the strength. I'm okay with making a few hour drive to experience it on a weekend.

History says once a nw trend is alive, ride it. You'd think this midweek storm would suppress the next one a lil bit more....

Another bummer track for dtw. Looking like a road trip to cmu to visit cousin at school..

It was pretty spot on, 5-6 days out with the midweek storm, better than all the other models. But yeah definitly not as good as it once was.

Yea I noticed the canadian was stronger with that clipper in between. The weaker that clipper is, the more nw the storm may go?

Yea thats definitly rare to see, but still wanna be nw of the low. It's all gonna come down to where the baroclinic zone and the block/confluence sets up. Everything has to line up for us so we'll see if we can get lucky and get a snowstorm.

This midweek storm was going nw of Detroit for almost the whole time, especially on the euro. It definitly schooled the gfs on this one so far. The fact next weekends storm is SE on the euro is a good sign. Still a long ways to go.

I think the 12z gfs is gonna look about as sexy as a storm can look for metro Detroit, 985 low intensifying in central Tennessee. The fact its intensifying so much, means its less likely to transfer to the coast, which we see so many times in this scenario/setup that limits a big dog. You got the front end, the main show, all snow. Pretty rare around these parts. 20-30 inch stripe. Perfect track with a little wiggle room for a NW adjustment.

You know you've had shit luck with big dogs when we gotta go back to 78 to talk about a historic storm that dropped only 5 inches in detroit. Meanwhile chicago crew only gotta go back 12 years. East coast a few years. Minneapolis 13 years....

I feel we talk about it every winter but that's about as nasty as I've seen it around here. Deep snow, arctic temps. I doubt we'll see that ever again.

I guess I'm not around as much, but from what I saw he just liked to show off his love for warmth and palm trees. Nobody else in his life cared so he turned to here. I suppose not everyone has the tolerance to deal with trolls...

Yea suppression is always the worry in El nino. Obviously like you said, until that midweek system rolls through, who knows.

Gfs looking like you may be onto something...

It's a message board, not a workplace. Just ignore people that try to troll sometimes. Its not that hard. Not sure why we gotta threaten people on here.

I guess we got some stuff to track for awhile. As always all models showing drastically different things. Glad it's getting active...

Yea central Missouri looks like the place to be. 12 hours+ of heavy deformation snow. Would be nice to witness something like that in my lifetime. Whoever gets under that banding, heaven...

I think that next storm, if it's as strong as depicted now, will go nw, just like next week's. We need a gulf low or something come out of south Texas. These lows that come outta the rockies/4 corners/panhandle go negative tilt too early for metro detroit to get in on the goods.

Looking like areas east of Chicago, and west of Albany ny, Zzzzz. Typical corridor of mediocrity.

Still large differences between the euro/Canadian. Barely any cold sector precip and storm is pretty progressive on the canadian. Uncle ukie has totals drop off significantly from south to north Illinois, cutoff around Chicago.