crossbowftw3

1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Meanwhile up here in Sullivan rain continues but our turn for tapering off appears to be occurring now

Probably comes down to how much instability builds in between bands of showers

Hoping for anything up here in Sullivan with this system, we need the rain up here inland

That line just went through here in Sullivan, missed the strong winds but it poured buckets for a solid 20 minutes. It could hold well for a few more hours before weakening some...maybe strengthen just a tad more?

That line just came through here in Narrowsburg. No strong winds to report here but certainly poured buckets for about 15-20 minutes. Thinking it could hold further S&E and potentially strengthen some.

Pretty much so yet the SPC 1630 update only really kicked the slight risk just south of my area. Watching the redevelopment potential but for 2000 wouldn't be shocked if they eliminate the risk for everyone else NYC north. Only 67 right now. Even if any new storms happened up here there will be a very limited window for any destabilization before things move along.

I'm getting those showers at the moment with a temperature still only at 65. Everywhere south of 84, especially south of 80, are still in prime position for some severe, yet that window might be shrinking as well.

Only barely north of 60 as of this hour at my house in Sullivan. Back end of the shield is on the way but I doubt it'll make it/collapse entirely before noon. Reminds me of a setup from last July where I struggled to make 70 amidst a rain shield/WF scenario while everywhere south warmed to almost 90 and had a subsequent severe episode.

Yeah up here north of 84 we might be stuck in the rain from the complex for almost the entirety of the morning with potential cloud debris to be trailing behind for longer than that even. By 1300 I expect the slight risk to be cut some--but I can see why they'd keep it in because some redevelopment will still happen this afternoon. Just not nearly as much as what could've been.

6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.

The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.

If the tornado threat was slightly lower this would be a case where a PDS SVR watch would get issued. It would still be entirely possible given current circumstances, however.

Yeah for you guys closer to NYC you will probably get hit by this. Up here north of 84 we will miss this to the north. Could count on possible redevelopment but without much sun we haven't been able to destabilize nearly as much. I expect 1630 day 1 to re-orient probabilities and probably remove enhanced risk as well. BGM take: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1025 AM Update... SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 for a good portion of PA, and just clipping Luzerne county until 3 PM. Organized convection was plowing through central PA as of this writing. It appears to be mainly elevated as analyses show CIN and low level stability, while mid level lapse rate exceed 7C/km. Latest CAMS guidance appears to be struggling with this earlier than expected feature. Best surface based instability and shear will be focusing mostly south of the BGM forecast area for the rest of today and the current line should propagate south of our area. There is indication that an approaching wave could trigger additional thunderstorm development over western NY, then sweep it through CNY/NEPA during the mid-late afternoon, but it`s more probable this will contain sub-severe, garden variety showers and thunderstorms. Plans now are to monitor the Watch conditions for the next couple hours and likely cancel it by 1 PM. Remainder of forecast fairly routine with some temperature updates due to cloud cover and forecast rainfall.

Temperature spiked back up to 75 but dew point"only" at 65 now

At my location it's tumbled 12 degrees in the past hour so I doubt we have much if any instability left for this second wave. Granted I live very close to the eastern border between NY and PA.

It likely will run out of both time and instability the further east it progresses and the further in time we go.

Severe warning for Yates for hail. Storm looks elevated so wind probably isn't a problem there but count on 1" hail possibly.

Changeover has finally arrived for me

Still stuck at 40/38 but the changeover is encroaching on me quickly. Still praying for 1" before the precip shuts off by around Midnight.

Looks like my switch could commence later next week. 10 day forecast slowly surges us up until we hit near-70 by next Saturday and only goes up from there.

Hoping for the best with the squalls. Regardless by Memorial Day we'll all be installing our Air Conditioners and this'll be but a passing memory in the wind as we roast in 80 degree/65+ dew point heat

Pretty much praying for an inch now but tomorrow's squalls look more juicy anyway. Gonna feel like a mid winter day even in between the possible squalls. Hoping whoever has to go on the roads are ready for them.

Still count on a burst of snow but the writing on the wall was pretty evident

18z Euro is (probably) the final nail in the coffin.