crossbowftw3

Wouldn't doubt it. In air to coast seems more probable.

Models still showing some form of snow. Euro is all on its own with low end warning event @10:1 which when adjusted is really 3-6". Realistically inland 1-3 with elevated 3-6" and maybe coatings to the coast then we officially close the book on snowfall accumulations for the next 6+ months.

Definitely not inconceivable that at least a few inches will fall Friday. Obvious limiting factor is April sun angles, but still. Favor areas north of BGM for anything over 3 inches ATM.

Same boat here. Just a few counties northeast of the watch and we've never gained much opportunity to destabilize. Sure it was pretty windy this morning but it's slowed since. No signs of clearing, but if we do there'll be little to no time to effectively destabilize before the line pushes through.

Guessing I'm basically in the middle on this one (away from the LLJ, away from the low track) so I'm thinking only really 40-50 with 50+ at elevations for a wide area that is in between these two features. Anyone think the same?

What are you all thinking for everywhere in between the actual low and the LLJ? Here where I'm at guessing only 40-50 at most with 50+ in higher elevations (Sullivan County)

This'll be fascinating to watch. Stuck pretty much away from the LLJ and from the low track. Guessing all I'll see is 40-50 at 750' while the highest peaks will be rollicking.

Probably not April 15th either but 4/24/10 looks closest to this at first glance.

Lines on the left give the big hint. This sounding is excessively containinated

if this goes signifcant damaging wind event with several embedded tornadoes do you think it could be an even more volatile setup for that than 1/10-1/11?

This is no 4/27 but in every way it will be devastating to someone by the time the sun rises Monday morning.

Not personally sure myself. From my research of that event they only did 60% sig because they were certain a major outbreak would happen. A big outbreak did happen, but fell quite short of verifying. They did want to do day 2 high for 4/27 but questions about the morning wave prevented that. As we know now, that morning wave (really both) didn't. 4/27 probably would have verified 60% with room to spare in all honesty.

4/7/06 and 4/14/12

My own digging through model evidence makes me think something closer to 4/24/10 or Veteran's Day 2002. which wouldn't be 4/27 bad but still plenty bad on its own.

Sleet/rain mix

I'm about 800' in the southern Catskills. Round 1 for us is wrapping up, and at my elevation I'm expecting to warm up to rain/mixing by afternoon. Good luck up there.

I get that, was simply pointing out how models seem to be distancing themsleves away from that idea. Like you I'm 20-30 miles north of 84 (at ~800) and am also only expecting 2-3" before likely mixing (or even a full changeover, which looks likelier) cuts down totals. MSV north looks good. Largely elevation dependent, but yeah, same points as provided before. They have their reasons and I respect them.

I don't think this was necessary needed because all models are shirking away from heavier snows. Still largely elevation dependent. 660 WWUS41 KBGM 221744 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 NYZ057-062-231745- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.200323T0700Z-200324T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.200323T0900Z-200324T0400Z/ Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches across elevations higher than 1400 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys. * WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. Also, weight of heavy wet snow could produce some power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

It's going to be 100%. Lower elevations probably 3-5 *if* it can stick well given late March sun/mixing; elevations >1500 feet will do best with probable 5-8.

summarily I don't know if the winter storm watches BGM issued here will stick...they were aiming them more for higher elevations but if the warming comes in quicker then all will lose.

It is. coincidentally on the same date as Lee County from last year.

No longer waiting for Cookeville. EF4 with winds of 175.

Hearing from other forums that Tennessee EMA Spokesperson now indicating at least 28 deaths, 200+ injured.