crossbowftw3

summarily I don't know if the winter storm watches BGM issued here will stick...they were aiming them more for higher elevations but if the warming comes in quicker then all will lose.

I need 35" in three days to break even for the season. Not happening. After Wednesday realistic chances for snow are likely done imo

Thoughts remain pretty solid. Lower elevations are going to struggle to see 4" while 1500+ will cash in with the 6-8" that has been postulated.

NAM seems to be coming in too cold. Look at snow depth vs total accumulations and you'll see why.

Definitely would count on that but nothing too major. Pretty much locking in the idea of widespread inland 3-6 with 8" for elevations at this point imo.

WPC percentile guidance still seems highly reasonable and closer into what will likely happen.

As I've been saying; it's gonna be a mess regardless. Good thing nobody will be on the roads! and that it will go right back to 50 by Tuesday which will insure all of it will melt. The volatility of March weather, am I not right?

Still seeing nothing that would change to my idea of decently widespread 3-6" (perhaps more 2-4" in lower elevations like mby where rain will certainly come into play) with dots of 6-8" in elevations >1500. Would expect widespread WWAs for 3-6 with isolated 8 to start populating if not tonight but by midday tomorrow.

Temperatures jump back to upper 40s for most by Tuesday

Absolutely. Consequently for under 1000' folks like myself the lower end of the 3-6 seems more plausible at this time. We've been bent sideways this winter when it comes to elevation-driven events and that shouldn't change here. Both for the best and worse, of course. Example being the 12/29 ice storm, of course, where at 800' I stayed 33-36 and rain whIle 30 minutes and an extra 600' saw .4 of ice. Simply put, this storm doesn't necessarily seem to have the needed punch to deliver a foot of snow, or anywhere close, over such a widespread area...or the staying power.

Yep. Generally above 1500' I'd think. After that 12z Euro head fake run from yesterday with the widespread 8-12, this has consolidated well into an event not too dissimilar to 1/18. I'm lower elevations in the Castkills so not surprised if I get 3" then flip to rain whIle 2000'+ stay snow and manage the 8". It may be hard for even them to get to 8" given the likely arrival time of precip/snow being hard to accumulate in late March sun angles.

But it probably won't be there. I have liked 3-6 with pockets of 8 in the favored elevations and won't move from it. WPC 72 hour forecast supports this to an extent.

This looks realistic/doable. 0vs12z

12z TT CMC...follow the leader? Interior Mass looks to win if so.

Guessing widespread interior 3-5 with anything higher confined to higher elevations. Weaker storms in marginal situations don't work for everyone. Once euro (cmc as well) falls in line this will probably be the reality. To go with it this event, no matter how much falls, will likely be the last time we see snow OTG until October at the earliest.

It is. coincidentally on the same date as Lee County from last year.

No longer waiting for Cookeville. EF4 with winds of 175.

Regardless of what occurs this weekend (most us getting an inch at MOST) it could be complete curtains for any winterlike weather. Extended range suggests several days of 50+ temps for a large majority of us.

Regardless of what happens this weekend (still thinking you guys in ENE could be great for a few inches) we might definitely be curtains for this winter after that. Very few days in the extended range show temperatures <=40 for daytime highs

At least EF3, there are clear DIs of at least EF4 (largely Cookeville) but due to time constraints they're going to likely have to come back to finish the survey tomorrow

Hearing from other forums that Tennessee EMA Spokesperson now indicating at least 28 deaths, 200+ injured.

I'd say probably the 16th-17th storm that month was the jumping point for winter going wrong

Time to say last rites? The extended range threat might be worth something but we all know how that goes.

I love being near that 9.5 dot near MSV. If we get shafted around here while the urban corridor gets slammed this month I'll never forgive those who live in those zones.

Thinking ENE lines up in the prime position on this one. For the rest of us we'll need this to come more west.