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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    28/18 here in Sullivan with a slight sound of sleet mixing in with the snow. Going with 2-4 here and erring lower as our window isn’t nearly as wide as it is for some of you here. I expect to see some 6” totals from north of here when this event is done.
  2. crossbowftw3
    We haven’t seen any such sustained 60s-70s during winter since the 2017-18 period. If that happens I wonder what may then occur over the rest of the winter.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Looks like I got a slushy coating, which is now beginning to be washed away as we’ve flipped back to showers.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Elevations still best, I can’t count on more than a few inches.
  5. crossbowftw3
    And the split between synoptic and LES events
  6. crossbowftw3
    New BGM map. Once again 15-25 minutes is pretty much the difference from next to nothing to >=3-4”.
  7. crossbowftw3
    BGM first call...looks largely reasonable. @sferic you could get 3-4” from this. Not looking for more than 1-2” where I am in Narrowsburg.
  8. crossbowftw3
    Whatever the NAM 3k is on, can I have some? Tossed.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Interesting map. Assuming this combines the elements of today, tomorrow night, and then the LES. At my lower elevation in Sullivan I’m guessing the under, but it’ll still be an inch or so. Elevation driven event regardless.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Pretty interesting map. Seems a bit overcooked but elevations can probably cash in 3-5” before the LE train begins.
  11. crossbowftw3
    Could sneak in an inch or two up here in Sullivan on Saturday. Not overly counting on it but it’d be nice before the lake response kicks up.
  12. crossbowftw3
    figure I’ll toss this out once again. The theme of rather scary analogs for tornado season continues. While obviously not implicating any one event this year matches the ferocity of those, the potential very much exists. It should also be noted that in some of these examples a TC would then eventually ride up the East Coast, most notably (and recently) Irene.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Well, while this weekend’s threat is pretty much gone now; next week is starting to look pretty interesting at this point.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Gotta wade through the mud to find the goldmine. Tomorrow’s event will come and go, and Sunday-Monday hinges on a marginal airmass, but I can’t wait to see what happens mid-month. Up here we made it to roughly 1/3 of what we had last year from the 16th/17th (36 inches which was roughly 25-30 below average) and here’s to hoping we can cover our totals from last year (if at all possible) by then.
  15. crossbowftw3
    It stayed rain all night here
  16. crossbowftw3
    Is it time to order up a MLK blizzard?
  17. crossbowftw3
    Didn’t areas near Ottawa have to deal with continually falling ZR for up to five days? Regardless this isn’t that by any means, still think .1-.3 is good enough of a guess for areas that do see the ice
  18. crossbowftw3
    84 and north if I had to guess at this time
  19. crossbowftw3
    I would think with your typical paring down with ZR QPF not being 1:1 probably a widespread .1-.3" with higher elevations going up to .5".
  20. crossbowftw3
    It's definitely coming down in the Catskills. A dusting/coating on most everything, even the roads. Maybe I can sneak 1-2"? Would be surprised if more than 1" fell though.
  21. crossbowftw3
    In conjecture with this, some crazy impressive analogs have been tossed around, which include both super outbreak years, and 2008 (Super Tuesday, early January Outbreak being among most notable). Not to say events of those magnitudes occur but overall it paints a very ugly picture
  22. crossbowftw3
    As a side note, moderate nina = big trouble for the south when spring comes around.
  23. crossbowftw3
    The mention of Jonas in the coastal thread reminded me to pull this up. Probably the most pain I've ever felt from a snowstorm. You guys definitely reaped the benefits though. A gradient of 40 miles shut me out of over 8" and two hours shut me out from almost 30"
  24. crossbowftw3
    Plausible knowing that every so often the southern states (mainly NC) get a snowstorm, with results never really pretty.
  25. crossbowftw3
    1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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