crossbowftw3

Up here in the Catskills it's only 77/70 with the front already well on its way. Difference of 10 degrees between my house here and NYC already. Gonna fuel some decent storms for you guys in the metro I think.

Up here in the Catskills it's looking like most of this misses to my south but at the same time, the developing MCS looks good. Feeding into the instability quite well

Yeah, last year's event had that 15 hatched tornado/45 hail but here its just a 15 hail (for early stage storms) and a large 5% tornado; thinking early storms could indeed have that chance for a strong tornado or two before things grow upscale, likely within 2-3 hours of what I think should be rather rapid CI

DCAPES 1200-1300 as well, strong shear profiles, it's gonna look last July 19th all over again

I sense a PDS Severe Watch across the UMW later...7000 SBCAPE pooling across SE ND already 86/81 at KGWR with is co-located with the 7000 CAPE

Rather concerning wording at 1630- 7000 SBCAPE pooling in ND already https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Meanwhile up here in Sullivan rain continues but our turn for tapering off appears to be occurring now

Probably comes down to how much instability builds in between bands of showers

Hoping for anything up here in Sullivan with this system, we need the rain up here inland

That line just went through here in Sullivan, missed the strong winds but it poured buckets for a solid 20 minutes. It could hold well for a few more hours before weakening some...maybe strengthen just a tad more?

6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.

The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.

Yeah for you guys closer to NYC you will probably get hit by this. Up here north of 84 we will miss this to the north. Could count on possible redevelopment but without much sun we haven't been able to destabilize nearly as much. I expect 1630 day 1 to re-orient probabilities and probably remove enhanced risk as well. BGM take: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1025 AM Update... SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 for a good portion of PA, and just clipping Luzerne county until 3 PM. Organized convection was plowing through central PA as of this writing. It appears to be mainly elevated as analyses show CIN and low level stability, while mid level lapse rate exceed 7C/km. Latest CAMS guidance appears to be struggling with this earlier than expected feature. Best surface based instability and shear will be focusing mostly south of the BGM forecast area for the rest of today and the current line should propagate south of our area. There is indication that an approaching wave could trigger additional thunderstorm development over western NY, then sweep it through CNY/NEPA during the mid-late afternoon, but it`s more probable this will contain sub-severe, garden variety showers and thunderstorms. Plans now are to monitor the Watch conditions for the next couple hours and likely cancel it by 1 PM. Remainder of forecast fairly routine with some temperature updates due to cloud cover and forecast rainfall.

Severe warning for Yates for hail. Storm looks elevated so wind probably isn't a problem there but count on 1" hail possibly.

Changeover has finally arrived for me

Still stuck at 40/38 but the changeover is encroaching on me quickly. Still praying for 1" before the precip shuts off by around Midnight.

Looks like my switch could commence later next week. 10 day forecast slowly surges us up until we hit near-70 by next Saturday and only goes up from there.

Hoping for the best with the squalls. Regardless by Memorial Day we'll all be installing our Air Conditioners and this'll be but a passing memory in the wind as we roast in 80 degree/65+ dew point heat

Pretty much praying for an inch now but tomorrow's squalls look more juicy anyway. Gonna feel like a mid winter day even in between the possible squalls. Hoping whoever has to go on the roads are ready for them.

Still count on a burst of snow but the writing on the wall was pretty evident

18z Euro is (probably) the final nail in the coffin.

Overall though the models are slowly moving away from a more widespread heavier snow which makes sense. still not counting on much more than a 1-3/3-5 deal, yet that doesn't matter as it'll for certain be the latest I've seen snow on record.

It'll be incredibly eye opening if I wake up to a white ground Saturday. I think north of me and closer to BGM is likely where you move past in air and into accumulations. Razor thin line between accumulations and nothing.

At my elevation not counting for more than 2", considering....but holy cow, never did I expect to be facing snow this late. I thought the snow from the 19th last month was absurd.