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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Up here in the Catskills it's only 77/70 with the front already well on its way. Difference of 10 degrees between my house here and NYC already. Gonna fuel some decent storms for you guys in the metro I think.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Up here in the Catskills it's looking like most of this misses to my south but at the same time, the developing MCS looks good. Feeding into the instability quite well
  3. crossbowftw3
    Yeah, last year's event had that 15 hatched tornado/45 hail but here its just a 15 hail (for early stage storms) and a large 5% tornado; thinking early storms could indeed have that chance for a strong tornado or two before things grow upscale, likely within 2-3 hours of what I think should be rather rapid CI
  4. crossbowftw3
    DCAPES 1200-1300 as well, strong shear profiles, it's gonna look last July 19th all over again
  5. crossbowftw3
    I sense a PDS Severe Watch across the UMW later...7000 SBCAPE pooling across SE ND already 86/81 at KGWR with is co-located with the 7000 CAPE
  6. crossbowftw3
    Rather concerning wording at 1630- 7000 SBCAPE pooling in ND already https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  7. crossbowftw3
    1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  8. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile up here in Sullivan rain continues but our turn for tapering off appears to be occurring now
  9. crossbowftw3
    Probably comes down to how much instability builds in between bands of showers
  10. crossbowftw3
    Hoping for anything up here in Sullivan with this system, we need the rain up here inland
  11. crossbowftw3
    6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.
  12. crossbowftw3
    The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Severe warning for Yates for hail. Storm looks elevated so wind probably isn't a problem there but count on 1" hail possibly.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Changeover has finally arrived for me
  15. crossbowftw3
    Still stuck at 40/38 but the changeover is encroaching on me quickly. Still praying for 1" before the precip shuts off by around Midnight.
  16. crossbowftw3
    Looks like my switch could commence later next week. 10 day forecast slowly surges us up until we hit near-70 by next Saturday and only goes up from there.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Hoping for the best with the squalls. Regardless by Memorial Day we'll all be installing our Air Conditioners and this'll be but a passing memory in the wind as we roast in 80 degree/65+ dew point heat
  18. crossbowftw3
    Pretty much praying for an inch now but tomorrow's squalls look more juicy anyway. Gonna feel like a mid winter day even in between the possible squalls. Hoping whoever has to go on the roads are ready for them.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Still count on a burst of snow but the writing on the wall was pretty evident
  20. crossbowftw3
    18z Euro is (probably) the final nail in the coffin.
  21. crossbowftw3
    Overall though the models are slowly moving away from a more widespread heavier snow which makes sense. still not counting on much more than a 1-3/3-5 deal, yet that doesn't matter as it'll for certain be the latest I've seen snow on record.
  22. crossbowftw3
    It'll be incredibly eye opening if I wake up to a white ground Saturday. I think north of me and closer to BGM is likely where you move past in air and into accumulations. Razor thin line between accumulations and nothing.
  23. crossbowftw3
    At my elevation not counting for more than 2", considering....but holy cow, never did I expect to be facing snow this late. I thought the snow from the 19th last month was absurd.
  24. crossbowftw3
    It is. coincidentally on the same date as Lee County from last year.
  25. crossbowftw3
    No longer waiting for Cookeville. EF4 with winds of 175.
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