crossbowftw3

Some pretty impressive parameters setting up tomorrow. Regional outbreak with multiple strong tornadoes seems like a solid bet.

Sleet/rain mix

I'm about 800' in the southern Catskills. Round 1 for us is wrapping up, and at my elevation I'm expecting to warm up to rain/mixing by afternoon. Good luck up there.

Looks like I got sucked into one last screw job by every model. Hoping for 2" now at best.

I get that, was simply pointing out how models seem to be distancing themsleves away from that idea. Like you I'm 20-30 miles north of 84 (at ~800) and am also only expecting 2-3" before likely mixing (or even a full changeover, which looks likelier) cuts down totals. MSV north looks good. Largely elevation dependent, but yeah, same points as provided before. They have their reasons and I respect them.

BGM WFO issued out warnings anyway when the all models are quickly shifting highest amounts away.

I don't think this was necessary needed because all models are shirking away from heavier snows. Still largely elevation dependent. 660 WWUS41 KBGM 221744 WSWBGM URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 NYZ057-062-231745- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0005.200323T0700Z-200324T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KBGM.WS.W.0004.200323T0900Z-200324T0400Z/ Delaware-Sullivan- Including the cities of Delhi, Walton, and Monticello 144 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9 inches across elevations higher than 1400 feet. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches in the valleys. * WHERE...Delaware and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Monday to midnight EDT Monday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact travel. Also, weight of heavy wet snow could produce some power outages. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

It's going to be 100%. Lower elevations probably 3-5 *if* it can stick well given late March sun/mixing; elevations >1500 feet will do best with probable 5-8.

summarily I don't know if the winter storm watches BGM issued here will stick...they were aiming them more for higher elevations but if the warming comes in quicker then all will lose.

I need 35" in three days to break even for the season. Not happening. After Wednesday realistic chances for snow are likely done imo

Thoughts remain pretty solid. Lower elevations are going to struggle to see 4" while 1500+ will cash in with the 6-8" that has been postulated.

NAM seems to be coming in too cold. Look at snow depth vs total accumulations and you'll see why.

Definitely would count on that but nothing too major. Pretty much locking in the idea of widespread inland 3-6 with 8" for elevations at this point imo.

WPC percentile guidance still seems highly reasonable and closer into what will likely happen.

As I've been saying; it's gonna be a mess regardless. Good thing nobody will be on the roads! and that it will go right back to 50 by Tuesday which will insure all of it will melt. The volatility of March weather, am I not right?

Still seeing nothing that would change to my idea of decently widespread 3-6" (perhaps more 2-4" in lower elevations like mby where rain will certainly come into play) with dots of 6-8" in elevations >1500. Would expect widespread WWAs for 3-6 with isolated 8 to start populating if not tonight but by midday tomorrow.

Temperatures jump back to upper 40s for most by Tuesday

Absolutely. Consequently for under 1000' folks like myself the lower end of the 3-6 seems more plausible at this time. We've been bent sideways this winter when it comes to elevation-driven events and that shouldn't change here. Both for the best and worse, of course. Example being the 12/29 ice storm, of course, where at 800' I stayed 33-36 and rain whIle 30 minutes and an extra 600' saw .4 of ice. Simply put, this storm doesn't necessarily seem to have the needed punch to deliver a foot of snow, or anywhere close, over such a widespread area...or the staying power.

Yep. Generally above 1500' I'd think. After that 12z Euro head fake run from yesterday with the widespread 8-12, this has consolidated well into an event not too dissimilar to 1/18. I'm lower elevations in the Castkills so not surprised if I get 3" then flip to rain whIle 2000'+ stay snow and manage the 8". It may be hard for even them to get to 8" given the likely arrival time of precip/snow being hard to accumulate in late March sun angles.

But it probably won't be there. I have liked 3-6 with pockets of 8 in the favored elevations and won't move from it. WPC 72 hour forecast supports this to an extent.

This looks realistic/doable. 0vs12z

12z TT CMC...follow the leader? Interior Mass looks to win if so.

Guessing widespread interior 3-5 with anything higher confined to higher elevations. Weaker storms in marginal situations don't work for everyone. Once euro (cmc as well) falls in line this will probably be the reality. To go with it this event, no matter how much falls, will likely be the last time we see snow OTG until October at the earliest.

It is. coincidentally on the same date as Lee County from last year.

No longer waiting for Cookeville. EF4 with winds of 175.