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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    Absolute deluge in the Catskills. If this can ingest instability as it pulls NE, look out folks.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Tornado watch across NJ: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0515.html Expecting this to continue to pull northeast as this is the corridor where convective development should continue.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Tornado watch: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0515.html More should be coming northeast as afternoon wears on and seems warranted as this is the corridor where the storms should be intensifying.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Surprised there's not an MD for that bow. At current trajectory it COULD cross very close to NYC proper within a few hours.
  5. crossbowftw3
    It's not been mixing well here N&W of NYC. Wasn't expected to. Inversion holding in very well. Going to need to watch convection later.
  6. crossbowftw3
    What are you thinking about the cluster of activity in SEPA?
  7. crossbowftw3
    Gonna be watching because any storms that swing by those areas will likely get their start near my location
  8. crossbowftw3
    Gonna say that it should've probably been in place from the beginning. Same with the HWWs from Central LI east
  9. crossbowftw3
    looking good for you guys in the city here.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Odd to see this late in the year but not unprecedented. Most everything should shut off within the 3 hour window after sunset so if we see convection it should be firing up by 2-3 PM.
  11. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile in the Catskills wind beginning pick up now and should be strongest for the next 3-5 hours, gusts between 25-35 still seem reasonable if anything mixes down, shifting east quickly. then thereafter watching for any convection but chances seem kinda questionable with the stable layer existing. I like CNJ and points northeast of there for actual convective chances. Surprised SPC didn't expand slight risk to at least coastal areas. @wdrag what are the odds this far N&W of the city sees anything convection wise, still decent?
  12. crossbowftw3
    Weak instability overall but quite good shear. Gonna be interesting to see what might fire up later since a dry slot is coming in rather quick. Should shut the rain down and increase chances for some storms.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Pretty interesting to see. Accordingly BOX did hoist high wind watches. I would suspect advisories by Upton by later today. Here inland from the city I still expect only 20-30 gusts with maybe 30-40 in elevations. Current point and click has winds sustained 10-15 with gusts to 25 at my house at 750' which seems reasonable. Still have the fairly obvious inversion in soundings.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Walt, Any idea on why western areas aren't exactly looking to get in on these big winds? I assume inversions in the soundings? This is the latest GIS gust map.
  15. crossbowftw3
    Latest GFS. You could in theory drive from Chicago to Cleveland and go from nothing to well over a foot.
  16. crossbowftw3
    Gonna be interesting to watch what happens in Ohio/Indiana. Potential very sharp snow gradient might be in play....talking nothing to at least a foot within maybe 30 miles. If not less, that is.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Plausible knowing that every so often the southern states (mainly NC) get a snowstorm, with results never really pretty.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Wouldn't shock me knowing that every year or so the south always gets a storm or two in December-January. The results never tend to be pretty.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Line just blew through here in the Catskills. I say "Blasted" because the gusts lasted for all of four or so minutes. From my eye test we probably gusted to about 40 or so here. Line already gone, but under a severe warning which is kinda redundant at least in my immediate location. Good luck to everyone here.
  20. crossbowftw3
    There's been six known instances of max wind potential (105 MPH gusts) in any watch, most recent was just last year across Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin
  21. crossbowftw3
    1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
  22. crossbowftw3
    6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.
  23. crossbowftw3
    The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.
  24. crossbowftw3
    It is. coincidentally on the same date as Lee County from last year.
  25. crossbowftw3
    No longer waiting for Cookeville. EF4 with winds of 175.
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