crossbowftw3

There's been six known instances of max wind potential (105 MPH gusts) in any watch, most recent was just last year across Minnesota and Northern Wisconsin

I'll take the first option if it means a much more manageable storm, as it's looking like up here further inland.

Wind Advisory URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 NYZ062-PAZ048-041915- /O.NEW.KBGM.WI.Y.0010.200804T1600Z-200805T0300Z/ Sullivan-Pike- Including the cities of Monticello and Milford 314 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Pike county. In New York, Sullivan county. * WHEN...From noon to 11 PM EDT Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects. && $$

For us inland folks we aren't looking for maybe anything more than gusts 20-40, which I think he is in the same boat I am. You guys on the coasts will much more likely see gusts 40-60; definitely someone getting a gust to 80 in cells that mix down. Soundings do seem to be well mixed east of the city.

Only 77/70 in the Catskills with the front already well on its way

Up here in the Catskills it's only 77/70 with the front already well on its way. Difference of 10 degrees between my house here and NYC already. Gonna fuel some decent storms for you guys in the metro I think.

Up here in the Catskills it's looking like most of this misses to my south but at the same time, the developing MCS looks good. Feeding into the instability quite well

Yeah, last year's event had that 15 hatched tornado/45 hail but here its just a 15 hail (for early stage storms) and a large 5% tornado; thinking early storms could indeed have that chance for a strong tornado or two before things grow upscale, likely within 2-3 hours of what I think should be rather rapid CI

DCAPES 1200-1300 as well, strong shear profiles, it's gonna look last July 19th all over again

I sense a PDS Severe Watch across the UMW later...7000 SBCAPE pooling across SE ND already 86/81 at KGWR with is co-located with the 7000 CAPE

Rather concerning wording at 1630- 7000 SBCAPE pooling in ND already https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

1630 outlook further expands the moderate risk into NW Wisconsin, with rather concerning wording at hand. 7000 SBCAPE pooling in SE ND already. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Meanwhile up here in Sullivan rain continues but our turn for tapering off appears to be occurring now

Probably comes down to how much instability builds in between bands of showers

Hoping for anything up here in Sullivan with this system, we need the rain up here inland

That line just went through here in Sullivan, missed the strong winds but it poured buckets for a solid 20 minutes. It could hold well for a few more hours before weakening some...maybe strengthen just a tad more?

That line just came through here in Narrowsburg. No strong winds to report here but certainly poured buckets for about 15-20 minutes. Thinking it could hold further S&E and potentially strengthen some.

Pretty much so yet the SPC 1630 update only really kicked the slight risk just south of my area. Watching the redevelopment potential but for 2000 wouldn't be shocked if they eliminate the risk for everyone else NYC north. Only 67 right now. Even if any new storms happened up here there will be a very limited window for any destabilization before things move along.

I'm getting those showers at the moment with a temperature still only at 65. Everywhere south of 84, especially south of 80, are still in prime position for some severe, yet that window might be shrinking as well.

Only barely north of 60 as of this hour at my house in Sullivan. Back end of the shield is on the way but I doubt it'll make it/collapse entirely before noon. Reminds me of a setup from last July where I struggled to make 70 amidst a rain shield/WF scenario while everywhere south warmed to almost 90 and had a subsequent severe episode.

Yeah up here north of 84 we might be stuck in the rain from the complex for almost the entirety of the morning with potential cloud debris to be trailing behind for longer than that even. By 1300 I expect the slight risk to be cut some--but I can see why they'd keep it in because some redevelopment will still happen this afternoon. Just not nearly as much as what could've been.

6/3/14 for wind, hail cannot go past moderate. most recent PDS severe watch happened August last year.

The case of lower Michigan might be one where a PDS severe watch is warranted only if the tornado threat was slightly lower. It's still entirely plausible under current circumstances, however. For us further east folk it looks like limited forcing today.

If the tornado threat was slightly lower this would be a case where a PDS SVR watch would get issued. It would still be entirely possible given current circumstances, however.

Yeah for you guys closer to NYC you will probably get hit by this. Up here north of 84 we will miss this to the north. Could count on possible redevelopment but without much sun we haven't been able to destabilize nearly as much. I expect 1630 day 1 to re-orient probabilities and probably remove enhanced risk as well. BGM take: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1025 AM Update... SPC issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 242 for a good portion of PA, and just clipping Luzerne county until 3 PM. Organized convection was plowing through central PA as of this writing. It appears to be mainly elevated as analyses show CIN and low level stability, while mid level lapse rate exceed 7C/km. Latest CAMS guidance appears to be struggling with this earlier than expected feature. Best surface based instability and shear will be focusing mostly south of the BGM forecast area for the rest of today and the current line should propagate south of our area. There is indication that an approaching wave could trigger additional thunderstorm development over western NY, then sweep it through CNY/NEPA during the mid-late afternoon, but it`s more probable this will contain sub-severe, garden variety showers and thunderstorms. Plans now are to monitor the Watch conditions for the next couple hours and likely cancel it by 1 PM. Remainder of forecast fairly routine with some temperature updates due to cloud cover and forecast rainfall.