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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Now down to 37 but still rain. Could be close now but the end of the precipitation shield is now only 90 miles away.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Just as fast it went back to all rain still holding at 39. Relay beginning to believe that folks in MA/CT are gonna get caught off guard as all 6z models are beginning to imply 3-6" that way now
  3. crossbowftw3
    TWC point forecast implies rain and snow but hard to see flakes right now. Still surely rain dominant at still 39 degrees
  4. crossbowftw3
    Back end of the shield is crossing Elmira now, probably have another 4-5 hours of this left to get flakes
  5. crossbowftw3
    At lower elevations here in the Catskills I only just dropped below 40F but there's signs that you folks in New England are gonna win this one
  6. crossbowftw3
    Waking up to discover I have not dropped below 40 degrees at all. Running out of time for anything great but still rooting for flakes. The precip is leggimg it all the way. New England is looking ever the more better now Edit: well, 39 now. But since Temps will not get close to freezing not a ton of snow (if any) will succeed in sticking.
  7. crossbowftw3
    definitely gonna need the rates to be good enough to get the accumulations on the cooler surfaces/grasses especially as the transition will likely not happen here until close to sunrise
  8. crossbowftw3
    Still gonna root for 1-2" here at 800' but coating still works. If this were a month later a decent snowstorm would be just getting underway. Expecting to hear up to low advisory amounts at elevations still.
  9. crossbowftw3
    From the records I've been able to find the western side still experienced Tropical Storm force winds.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Dry slot closing in now, I can probably see a few hours of drizzle or even just straight up dry weather up here but I'm seeing returns coming into WPA from the trough now.
  11. crossbowftw3
    Yeah that still sound highly reasonable. Zeta now moving at 55 MPH, the dry slot is punching in rather fast.
  12. crossbowftw3
    Of course the 53 MPH forward speed isn't even close to being a record, as the LI express hurricane is believed to have been moving between 60 and 70. Nonetheless the dry slot will punch in and shut down most of the precip until that second low rolls in, with the precipitation likely all but over by sunrise-10 AM or so tomorrow. Interesting trends for New England though, as advisory snows might be looking likelier there now.
  13. crossbowftw3
    This thing is moving fast--up to 53 MPH now. Would not be shocked if the remnant rains are largely over by 8-10 PM tonight
  14. crossbowftw3
    Better for elevations and maybe I can sneak in 1-2 inches? Would be good
  15. crossbowftw3
    I almost let myself get head faked by what was actually the 6z Tuesday run of the Para but you still have a shot at good snows from this. It was never meant to be for MBY though for anything over a few inches.
  16. crossbowftw3
    If the surprise is advisory snows that's cool with me, might dry out just too quickly for anything meaningful
  17. crossbowftw3
    Either way here in lower elevations of the Catskills I'm pretty much cooked. First meaningful snow should happen by the end of next month so I'm not as upset
  18. crossbowftw3
    Looks even less likely now. Flakes are still a solid bet but meaningful accumulations are probably all but done at this rate save the elevations. Biggest concern turns into the 1-2" of rain followed right up with a freeze Friday afternoon into the evening: gonna be a problem on the roads I'm sure.
  19. crossbowftw3
    In the lower elevations of the Catskills I can't bargain myself seeing more than maybe a few slushy inches before things end Friday morning. Nonetheless flakes are a win this early on, solid advisory event setting up for elevations
  20. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile here in the lower elevations of the Catskills I can't bargain anything more than maybe a few slushy inches before the precipitation stops Friday morning. Oh well, early season gonna early season. It'll be our turn before long
  21. crossbowftw3
    Regardless flakes is a win this early on in the season. Typical early season setup will do as it typically does here I think and BGM is doing well to paint the picture. We will all get ours soon.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Gonna get skunked at only 800' here in SW Sullivan. Maybe I'll find some cams and watch the snow Friday morning....and cherish the maybe coating that I get here.
  23. crossbowftw3
    Here we go again. At 700' in Sullivan County I'm not gonna count on much of any here, but I can reasonably assume we will see some flakes here. Elevation is key for early season events, might apply once again here. @sferic Your house in Liberty might be good for up to 3" as I understand things now
  24. crossbowftw3
    And with that said, if by some astrological odds Teddy gets hooked into NE/Atlantic Canada the most direct impacts would likely be confined there, with most west of inland Massachusetts probably not seeing much impact...even still gusty winds seem probable knowing the likely ET transition Teddy will undergo by the time it comes ashore at cat 2 equivalent. And marine impacts as well, of course.
  25. crossbowftw3
    I would assume by that point it is undergoing ET transition which could exacerbate things.
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