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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Checking in from the Catskills. The line blasted through just a bit ago while still not entirely organized. From my eye test I would guess we had gusts around 40-45 for about 2 minutes or so. This line is quickly becoming organized so I suspect an increase severe reports should quickly occur to my east. Good luck everyone on this forum. Under a severe warning but that's kinda redundant with the line already gone and just stratiform rain falling.
  2. crossbowftw3
    If the front were timed just a bit better I think a more widespread wind event would have been at hand. Here downstate frontal arrival will still be timed far after sunset and without better mixing. Guessing better gust potential here should be with the line itself. Still like the idea of gusts 25-35 here downstate.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Here downstate there doesn't look to be nearly enough mixing to produce gusts close to advisory range but 25-35 looks most reasonable
  4. crossbowftw3
    Sticking only to colder surfaces and probably not much more with temperatures still at 35-36 and the precipitation ending here by around 10.
  5. crossbowftw3
    Completed the flip here at 800' in the Catskills, still won't get more than maybe a C-1". New England is looking incredibly good for 3-6" right now.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Has now completely flipped here in the lower elevations of the Catskills as well. Not much will happen here now but it's all swinging your way.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Getting ever more closer to the flip now, but again simply too little too late with the back end of the shield booking it ever more faster. Now only 60-70 miles away. Edit: now have pretty much completely flipped.
  8. crossbowftw3
    With it getting light out I'm definitely seeing flakes but still mixed with the rain, 36 degrees. looking a bit too late now.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Now down to 37 but still rain. Could be close now but the end of the precipitation shield is now only 90 miles away.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Just as fast it went back to all rain still holding at 39. Relay beginning to believe that folks in MA/CT are gonna get caught off guard as all 6z models are beginning to imply 3-6" that way now
  11. crossbowftw3
    TWC point forecast implies rain and snow but hard to see flakes right now. Still surely rain dominant at still 39 degrees
  12. crossbowftw3
    Back end of the shield is crossing Elmira now, probably have another 4-5 hours of this left to get flakes
  13. crossbowftw3
    At lower elevations here in the Catskills I only just dropped below 40F but there's signs that you folks in New England are gonna win this one
  14. crossbowftw3
    Waking up to discover I have not dropped below 40 degrees at all. Running out of time for anything great but still rooting for flakes. The precip is leggimg it all the way. New England is looking ever the more better now Edit: well, 39 now. But since Temps will not get close to freezing not a ton of snow (if any) will succeed in sticking.
  15. crossbowftw3
    definitely gonna need the rates to be good enough to get the accumulations on the cooler surfaces/grasses especially as the transition will likely not happen here until close to sunrise
  16. crossbowftw3
    Still gonna root for 1-2" here at 800' but coating still works. If this were a month later a decent snowstorm would be just getting underway. Expecting to hear up to low advisory amounts at elevations still.
  17. crossbowftw3
    From the records I've been able to find the western side still experienced Tropical Storm force winds.
  18. crossbowftw3
    Dry slot closing in now, I can probably see a few hours of drizzle or even just straight up dry weather up here but I'm seeing returns coming into WPA from the trough now.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Yeah that still sound highly reasonable. Zeta now moving at 55 MPH, the dry slot is punching in rather fast.
  20. crossbowftw3
    Of course the 53 MPH forward speed isn't even close to being a record, as the LI express hurricane is believed to have been moving between 60 and 70. Nonetheless the dry slot will punch in and shut down most of the precip until that second low rolls in, with the precipitation likely all but over by sunrise-10 AM or so tomorrow. Interesting trends for New England though, as advisory snows might be looking likelier there now.
  21. crossbowftw3
    This thing is moving fast--up to 53 MPH now. Would not be shocked if the remnant rains are largely over by 8-10 PM tonight
  22. crossbowftw3
    Better for elevations and maybe I can sneak in 1-2 inches? Would be good
  23. crossbowftw3
    I almost let myself get head faked by what was actually the 6z Tuesday run of the Para but you still have a shot at good snows from this. It was never meant to be for MBY though for anything over a few inches.
  24. crossbowftw3
    If the surprise is advisory snows that's cool with me, might dry out just too quickly for anything meaningful
  25. crossbowftw3
    Either way here in lower elevations of the Catskills I'm pretty much cooked. First meaningful snow should happen by the end of next month so I'm not as upset
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