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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    up now to either 35 or 36, once again dependent on where I look for obs. Ice melting is taking on an accelerated rate. White Lake, approximately ~10-20 minutes from me, saw .5 of flat ice
  2. crossbowftw3
    Would definitely say the same as it looks like a solid .2 accreted here as well. Roads appeared to have remained wet overnight and now at either 33 or 34 depending on what source I look at. Melting already underway and should only accelerate after sunrise.
  3. crossbowftw3
    Yikes. Looks like nothing appreciable has happened here yet in Sullivan, real accretion seeming more probable to happen with the main slug.
  4. crossbowftw3
    We stand a much better chance of snow with Thursday.
  5. crossbowftw3
    should also be said that most of this comes down in about 5-6 hours and in some heavier precip...accounting for runoff .15-.3 is probably the realistic range for many with elevated areas that stay the coldest getting up to .5”.
  6. crossbowftw3
    BGM just issued-only our second ZR event of the winter and like the first one it looks like I may see .25” again. Closer to @sferic could become a skating rink. ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to one half of an inch. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Sullivan county. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice accumulation in the valley locations will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch...but locations above 1500 feet elevation are expected to see as much as one half of an inch.
  7. crossbowftw3
    ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing. Additional snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of two tenths to one half of an inch. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Sullivan county. * WHEN...Until 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Tuesday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Ice accumulation in the valley locations will range from a tenth to a quarter of an inch...but locations above 1500 feet elevation are expected to see as much as one half of an inch. BGM issued this just 20 minutes ago- thankfully I’ll be low enough in elevation to avoid anything over .25”
  8. crossbowftw3
    Upton still has the ISW in place but icing potential now down to up to 1/4”: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Ice Storm Warning, significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter inch. For the Winter Weather Advisory ice accumulations of a light glaze. * WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, Orange County. * WHEN...For the Ice Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday. For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 6 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
  9. crossbowftw3
    Most everyone will get above freezing by 6-7 AM save the elevations. Most of the ice will be melted off by afternoon. ...and then any water will re-freeze pretty quick tomorrow night.
  10. crossbowftw3
    Yeah, I personally would expect that March can deliver us at least one or two more appreciable snowstorms before we definitely go over to spring. Next 10 days after Thursday things at least quiet down and moderate out some.
  11. crossbowftw3
    Been hanging right between 29-30 here in Narrowsburg which is definitely a bit warmer than guidance. As we probably don’t go below 27-28 tonight I’ll probably cap our icing potential right around .3”.
  12. crossbowftw3
    I have already gotten to 27 here in Narrowsburg, and probably won’t move much below 28 tonight. Even though the ZR happens at night it’ll probably be coming down too heavy to accrete well + fast overall motion leads me to believe max totals might be closer to .3-.4 than up to .6.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Thankfully we will all get above freezing by tomorrow morning so my concern of this ice not melting by Thursday is pretty much out the window. Even if it’s only for 3-6 hours that’ll be enough to get rid of most of it
  14. crossbowftw3
    it won't be, never really was meant to be one. but it certainly will be problematic especially if this won't melt by Thursday.
  15. crossbowftw3
    You'll get your .5 of ice, don't be concerned
  16. crossbowftw3
    and 6-10" of snow right after to bring it all down In reality most probably see anywhere from .1-.4. A notable event but nothing truly damaging. The real problem might be the fact that none of this will melt until after the storm later in the week.
  17. crossbowftw3
    I doubt we all see .5", but .25-.4is a good call
  18. crossbowftw3
    the point and click for me in Sullivan has 30 for a high tomorrow and not falling much during the night to maybe 28 before briefly spiking around 36-37 Tuesday morning. I think this icing event won't have great accretion rates overall but can still be messy.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Ice Storm Warnings beginning to populate for the NNJ folks: ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of three tenths to one half of an inch with up to one inch of snow and sleet. * WHERE...Portions of northern New Jersey and east central and northeast Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 6 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be extremely difficult. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute on Tuesday.
  20. crossbowftw3
    I could say some higher elevations that never fully clear the cold see .6 but probably more isolated in any regard
  21. crossbowftw3
    Overall ZR QPF has gone up some on model runs. With typical paring techniques I think a reasonable high end is probably around .6” in the highest elevations that never get warm.
  22. crossbowftw3
    I could probably say a similar theme to tomorrow but not 100% sure yet
  23. crossbowftw3
    3-6 and icing of up to .25 makes sense at this juncture for tomorrow into Tuesday
  24. crossbowftw3
    Pray that we don’t get Christmas Eve all over again because that would be so much worse over a bigger area.
  25. crossbowftw3
    The overall fast pace of the storm will curb ice potential but it will be an incredibly rough time of it Tuesday. Right now I’d think .25-.5 could be common with some folks seeing up to .75. Typical rounding down rules apply with clown maps
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