crossbowftw3

1-4 with some 4-6” is a good range. If this is winter’s last gasp I’m all for it. Still need about another 7-8” to make average—funny to think again because ~65” is average for MSV, but this was a good winter regardless

So....probable advisory level snow that probably doesn’t stay around? EC has temperatures spike into the 40s and 50s for most the next day

i pity the fool if he is....but take that as an irony because I am not much older than he.

I’ll just leave this here

0z Euro not nearly as eye-popping for Colorado but rather shifts its totals into Nebraska/Wyoming:

The setup over the front range looks highly favorable for someone to see well over 4-5’ of snow. BDR GEFS ensemble circa 18z yesterday:

these predictions are near-impossible but they give me a good laugh one of them is probably bound to happen sooner than later which is the funny thing

Our friend George struck again. here’s his full post from the New England forum from 8 hours ago where he believes the following will occur (highly unlikely but I wanted to post it here for that exact reason): “On the Canadian it appears after near record warmth this week, we have 3 miller b nor’easters from March 17th to March 20th. According to the upper level pattern the first 2 threats are unlikely to be big if anything. However it is the third low that catches my interest. Leading up to the storm there is a huge ridge out west which should allow for storms to amplify, slow down, and come up the coast. Since the flow is slow and buckled on the Canadian, the room for error when it comes to phasing of the northern and southern streams increases. Any storm that does develop will undergo rapid cyclogenesis and come up the coast as a massive slow moving ocean low. I strongly believe there will be a massive slow moving east coast storm but the big question is going to be precip type. At this point it will be late March so cold air won’t be as easy to come by. However, on the Canadian the polar vortex is not anywhere near the North Pole, it is displaced to the south and east. With the polar vortex sitting over east-central Canada as well as a highly amplified flow, the pattern favors northern stream energy diving into the Midwest, which would not only phase with the southern branch but it would also bring cold air in. It’s still far out and it is late March so there are factors working against us, but with the pattern in place there is the potential for a massive early spring blizzard in New England. If the threat does end up panning out, due to the gradient of warm March waters amplified by near record warmth clashing with cold air being funneled into the northeast via the polar vortex, that’s a recipe for a historically strong ocean low. 940s or 950s is not out of the question. However, the warm waters is a double edged sword, as it will be harder to overcome the warm ocean air, which will lead to rain in the coastal areas. In my opinion there will be ptype issues possibly as far west as Worcester with this type of setup. However, if the storm does reach this strength with a favorable track, it will likely be a start as rain and then as the low bombs out and the winds turn more north than north east, the rain snow line would crash right and all of eastern mass would flip over to heavy snow with blizzard conditions developing for 12+ hours due to the slow moving nature of the storm. The run didn’t go out that far, but in my opinion if you extrapolate the Canadian it would be a few hours of rain followed by a long duration blizzard with snowfall totals exceeding 3 feet in all of eastern Mass. I’m not forecasting that just yet, but this does fit the pattern so there is a higher than usual chance something like that will happen.”

I’m all for one last dance however which way we can receive it. Not 100% sure I can give a vote of confidence yet but March has done weirder things. One thing for sure, my shovels will not be put away this month

53/30 and bright sun, pack is quickly evaporating

It’s definitely a disconcerting reality that we probably will have to continually face for the next while. Besides this my focus is slowly shifting towards the beginning of severe season, with the idea for perhaps one last snow dwindling steadily—I wouldn’t doubt we see one or two more, but I can’t give a vote of confidence for it right now

plenty of early indicators we're in for another active hurricane season. Background state looks eerily similar to last year.

Any indication on if the cold out west could end up as significant as it was last month, relatively speaking, or is it looking more seasonably cooler?

Makes sense, I am personally expecting at least one more chance at a >4" snow after this upcoming period but have to reel in expectations at least somewhat. The cold shot at 384 looks interesting, but it's 384 hours lol

My early point and clicks for next week has 55 as a maximum high. Wouldn’t be shocked to see that trend up such that we have a few days of 60+.

Think we get widespread 60s next week, barring the storm this weekend perhaps pulling a miracle?

And almost certainly will spell the end of our snowpack barring more storms after next week, regardless of what might or might not happen this weekend.

So it looks like we probably won’t have a storm for this weekend upcoming: can reasonably infer now that it will spell the end of our pack without any storm threats until probably after next week. The March transitional period can be weird but here’s hoping we can see some snowcover on the first day of Spring.

So, do we still have anything with this or should we move on and look at any possible threats after next week?

I’m going for 10 above tonight +/-5. Somehow we will still hold the pack here despite the fact that some serious grass patches are now emerging. The death knell for our pack is almost certainly the warmup for next week—IF we see 50+ degrees for more than a day or two.

Totally expecting 60s next week and then a 10” snow the week after. I think we’re all due for a March surprise.

ftfy

Using MSV as the measuring stick around 65” a year, probably slightly lower here at 700’ compared to their 1200’ if Tuesday/Wednesday is the last appreciable snow chance that isn’t from any weird season transition thing, then I welcome it, this winter was good overall

Still need roughly 10” IMBY in Sullivan to meet average which is crazy to think about with two 12+ storms with one of them being over 20”; I would tend to believe we see one more big snow and maybe a few more minor-moderate events before we’re truly finished for this winter.

Pi Day and then 2018 tell me that this can totally happen in March, still need roughly 10” to actually meet average for this winter which is shocking to think about overall that we still are slightly below normal for snow if the death band was only so much more south in December we would’ve been at least 5-10” above average