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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    Looking potentially interesting for a little topper to our season. I'd lean lower on potential ranges but 1-4" seems like a good bet.
  2. crossbowftw3
    If this does become something, are we looking at uniform 10:1 or higher wrt ratios? I understand it's late season but also looking to fall at night. Also looks like it generates a lake response for our friends upstate.
  3. crossbowftw3
    This is a dizzyingly wide warm sector on the NAM
  4. crossbowftw3
    This is a Warm Sector you should be seeing in April or May down south, not March. This is becoming increasingly concerning.
  5. crossbowftw3
    The level of concern I hold for Wednesday's severe event down south is escalating. This wide warm sector could be accompanied by favorable shear, LRs, moderate forcing, and very favorable surface track. This is a warm sector you should be seeing in April or May, not March. This is getting increasingly worrying.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Some vbv exists in the soundings but the broad-brush potential of this event cannot be understated.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Fred Gossage is sounding alarm bells here. Knowing what other event for which he raised the alarm bells days out, that’s enough to garner attention.
  8. crossbowftw3
    Twitter, mostly, where some chasers will post their streams
  9. crossbowftw3
    Pretty substantial potential verbatim as of this moment, but vbv exists in soundings so cautiously sending out the message as of now
  10. crossbowftw3
    Keeping abreast of the developing situation for today’s event in Texas. First moderate risk of the season and a decent parameter space to back it up. We will see what happens later.
  11. crossbowftw3
    The parameter space looks good, but will cells stay discrete for long enough remains the question hrrr dews for later..healthy area of low 60s.
  12. crossbowftw3
    And I may say that the early look the models are giving paint a not-so-pretty-picture...
  13. crossbowftw3
    Watching from afar here in New York. Day 5 broad-brush 15% into the Lower Ohio Valley. The overall look is beginning to look pretty dang ugly at this range.
  14. crossbowftw3
    Potential severe event as well down south. One of perhaps multiple in the coming weeks. @weatherwiz probably has eyes on.
  15. crossbowftw3
    maybe have a gender reveal party while you're at it
  16. crossbowftw3
    Very good winter overall and those of us inland have maybe 1-2 more shots to push us AN for the season. Still wonder what could have been if the death band was 70 miles south on 12/16-17.
  17. crossbowftw3
    Suffice to say we probably have 1-2 more decent shots at topping off our snow totals for this winter before it finally begins to relent, probably in about 10 days time. Here downstate in Sullivan we still need roughly 7" to meet average, which two 3-4" events next week will suffice. Can't give a vote of confidence if we can get it right now
  18. crossbowftw3
    Probably. Maybe a few more instances of in-air flakes or a potential front-end snow barring something wildly unexpected.
  19. crossbowftw3
    We've broken winter's back but it hasn't heard no bell yet. I would still not count out at least one more modest snow event between now and the 23rd.
  20. crossbowftw3
    Status report: the snowpack has now been 100% vaporized. It had a good run but here's hoping next week can give us some more snow one last time before Winter finally does relent (probably past the 23rd?) but even then those events (3-6" at best?) are probably followed by 40s the next day that evaporate the snow anyway
  21. crossbowftw3
    Typical late season distribution of snow. The resorts would love to get another 8-10 before the end of the season.
  22. crossbowftw3
    EC implies that temperatures would then go up to at least 40 degrees for most the next day so March sun = vaporizes the snow by the middle of the day
  23. crossbowftw3
    Swath of what would definitely be advisory-level snows if it were to play out pound for pound
  24. crossbowftw3
    For all intents and purposes probably the last two events we have to 100% be concerned with. 16/17th look pretty well identical on EC to what most of our February events did with the swath of 1-6”
  25. crossbowftw3
    Which is exactly why I’m keeping shovels around for one more week, even though the much stronger sun lends itself well to rapid melting of virtually any snow now—today will be a good example of that as we start with some spotty areas around here still having full cover
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