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crossbowftw3

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Everything posted by crossbowftw3

  1. crossbowftw3
    8” of snow onto Long Island and even NYC proper gets to see some snow, really starting to cut it close for anything meaningful for all of us in the Catskills and Poconos.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Knowing where you are you might be really close to some big totals if some of the 12z runs are to be taken at face value. It’s gonna come down to a nowcast for you I would say.
  3. crossbowftw3
    In this case; yes.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Midday GFS remains relatively consistent, definite consensus on where the biggest axis of snow is: for the rest of us to see anything, the devil remains in the details
  5. crossbowftw3
    Midday GFS stays relatively consistent, way better focus on the Berks now
  6. crossbowftw3
    The Berkshires are quickly evolving into the place to be to really get the goods on this one
  7. crossbowftw3
    From purely examining what has emerged today I think we should still be fine to see 2-4/3-6 with up to 8 or even more at elevations. The Berkshires are emerging as the potential crush zone in this
  8. crossbowftw3
    I’d do anything to be at a ski resort in the Berkshires right now.
  9. crossbowftw3
    In that case I’d roll with an idea of seeing 2-4/3-6” for some of us even this far west and into lower elevations with definite room for up to a foot in the typical elevations. In general, still have to favor elevations
  10. crossbowftw3
    That’s what I’ve been wondering all along. Those of us in this sub forum who aren’t elevated seemingly just miss everything. Elevated areas of SNE might be in position to get smacked here
  11. crossbowftw3
    What are your feelings about areas further west of the river, specifically into the lower elevations of the Catskills/Poconos; are we probably out of the game save for higher elevations? Beginning to think it’ll be much more elevation driven here than anywhere else
  12. crossbowftw3
    12z NAM tries to re-up the ante some, but I get the feeling most of us miss, even folks like me downstate who might be just a tad too far west and get fringed:
  13. crossbowftw3
    12z NAM attempts to re-up the ante, but getting the feeling us far N&W folks at lower elevations might be too far west/get fringed:
  14. crossbowftw3
    And the ensuing snow map, beginning to wonder if I simply end up too far west for anything really meaningful in the Catskills:
  15. crossbowftw3
    Finally starting to seem like models are converging to one common idea, devil will be in the details if my lower elevation in the Catskills will see more than 1-2”
  16. crossbowftw3
    First consensus forming?
  17. crossbowftw3
    Looks like at least the overnight model runs are in fact converging on a first consensus though, effectively now looking like you need to go far beyond 84 to see snow
  18. crossbowftw3
    Most trees still are only beginning to bud out around here.
  19. crossbowftw3
    He’s back to smoking the good stuff. A much more plausible forecast for this juncture would be broad-brush 1-3/3-6 with up to 12 in the elevations
  20. crossbowftw3
    Remember the catch-22s that make snow totals being that high highly unlikely, snow is definitely growing probable for your elevation. EC is otherwise all on its own when it comes to this.
  21. crossbowftw3
    Midday GFS with a far more plausible snow distribution for this time of year:
  22. crossbowftw3
    Midday GFS makes much more sense with the snow distribution to elevation ratio, maybe a first look at how this might actually unfold?:
  23. crossbowftw3
    Midday GFS beginning to really show a far more plausible scenario when it comes to snow distribution for a storm this late:
  24. crossbowftw3
    way more realistic snow:elevation distribution for what you'd expect for a late seaon storm.
  25. crossbowftw3
    Matter of fact, midday GFS is already showing signs of slowly coming to a realistic scenario
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