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crossbowftw3

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  1. crossbowftw3
    It absolutely refuses to drop below 32F at 32/29, still no visible icing that I can spot.
  2. crossbowftw3
    Probably, lol
  3. crossbowftw3
    Still predominantly rain here, which continues to be remarkable. It’s a very precarious position to be in, though. Meanwhile, younger sibling had to deal with a fire drill at Oswego…in the middle of the night…during the snow.
  4. crossbowftw3
    Still holding shockingly well between 32-35 depending on where I look with relatively no signs of icing where I’m at in Sullivan. It’s 100% a whole different story at elevations…
  5. crossbowftw3
    Meanwhile: I’m in the middle of a pretty remarkable situation down here in Sullivan, where I’m still by and large all rain where everywhere around is icing, with temps between 32 and 35 depending on where I look. Can’t imagine that stays for any more than another hour or two.
  6. crossbowftw3
    Remarkably still holding between 32-35 depending on where I look and it still sounds like just plain rain with maybe the slightest hint of ZR mixing in. Should be going all the way over soon though, and lasting through the morning.
  7. crossbowftw3
    Latest meso models continuing with the idea that at my house in Sullivan I might not go below 32 until after sunrise. Still is going to be a tight squeeze with all of the elevations (again, Sullivan County is nothing but elevations >1k feet) around me probably icing much sooner.
  8. crossbowftw3
    My pack is getting beat on right now with temperatures right between 41-42. No way it survives the rest of today at this rate
  9. crossbowftw3
    As a reminder, the QPF maps cannot be taken 100% verbatim. Chop them down by 30-40% and you come away with the likelier results.
  10. crossbowftw3
    The relative hole in ZR accumulations represents my relatively lower elevation in Sullivan so well on the 12z NAM. Not like I’m complaining
  11. crossbowftw3
    12z HRRR printing out 1.3” of liquid in ZR for elevations of Ulster and Dutchess Counties, which would work to being dangerously close to the .5” marker for an ISW.
  12. crossbowftw3
    Watch swapped to an advisory for up to .25” but I doubt areas around here get away with only seeing that. Similar gradient to 12/29/19 showing up on meso models as well where I saw almost no ice, while 30-40 minutes and elevation saw up to .4”.
  13. crossbowftw3
    Winter storm watch for .25-.5” of ice. Excellent….not
  14. crossbowftw3
    Instead of the good stuff I’m at risk of .25”-.5” of ice accretions have fun with the good stuff
  15. crossbowftw3
    Winter storm watch now for .25-.5” and 1-3 of snow. At my lower elevation it’s likely closer to the .25” than the .5” but… Good thing is that there should be almost no wind factoring in so any outages probably wouldn’t last longer than 2-3 days at most
  16. crossbowftw3
    They typically never do. Common rule is to cut QPF maps by 35-40% to get totals and that’ll get a wide enough area to .25” or more which still will prove to be a gigantic problem.
  17. crossbowftw3
    That’s what I’m feeling right now too, if I had to guess a forecast for our areas it would probably also be 1-3 with up to .1.-.2 of ZR, and definitely more sleet. Good to make a bulletproof pack, hellish to try and clear after the fact especially with the temps crashing right back down Friday afternoon + evening.
  18. crossbowftw3
    That’s 12z…..18 came in way warmer which probably doesn’t make much sense.
  19. crossbowftw3
    Would work out to a potential widespread .25”-.5” and pockets to .75”…..when was the last time (if ever) NYC saw a legit ice storm warning?
  20. crossbowftw3
    For as much as I’d use the “typical paring down” metric for determining ice accretions I also am reminded that temperatures will be tumbling down as this happens. Not a very pretty look regardless.
  21. crossbowftw3
    And then snow on top of that is a recipe for disaster.
  22. crossbowftw3
    Application of typical paring down where necessary will still create a tremendous stretch of areas that are risking up to .5-.75 of ice accretions
  23. crossbowftw3
    A nice 4.5” per hour if it stays at that 1.5 per 20 minute rate
  24. crossbowftw3
    Dry air is definitely eating into the returns here now as the bands begin to line up to smack Boston with subsequent (slow) de-escalation of the snow intensity here
  25. crossbowftw3
    Is that the Himalayas I see from my house in Sullivan? Lol
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