Amorphous Iodine

So 75% of the time it’s right 100% of the time for parts of Virginia?

The geomagnetic storm is now a G5. There were 7 or so earth-directed CMEs over the last 72 hours or so. Their plasma will be hitting us all weekend long: The plasma of each ejection can be expected to have differing velocities.

It gives me the feelz of the last snow storm January 3, 2022. The end of a holiday weekend and only minimal concern with a worst case scenario. I 95 was closed for 24 hours.

Two years ago today south of Fredericksburg. 650 power poles broke and had to be replaced. >>A strong band of frontogenetic forcing around 700 mb, along with plenty of slantwise instability (as evidenced by negative EPV and model cross sections). In addition there was even a little bit of elevated CAPE in the area where it was snowing during the morning. This led to intense banded snowfall that produced rates in excess of 1-2" per hour at times. While the best frontogenetic forcing generally stayed just to the NW of the Richmond Metro (and extended into Dorchester County, MD) through much of the morning, it gradually moved into the metro area during the late morning-early afternoon, allowing for some areas to pick up a quick few inches of snow. The bands of snow weakened as they moved into SE VA as the low pressure system quickly exited to the northeast. The weight of the heavy, wet snow downed several trees across the NW portion of our area, resulting in widespread power outages. There were several counties where 70-90% of residents were without power. At the peak of the event, nearly 450,000 residents were estimated to be without power in the state of Virginia. For many parts of our area, this was the largest snow event since 12/9/2018. In Louisa and Goochland Counties, the tree/infrastructure damage was on par with what occurred during Hurricane Isabel. The excessive amounts of heavy, wet snow were largely responsible for a closure of a portion of I-95 from Caroline County to north of the CWA border that lasted over 24 hours.

Through & through?

If you could change one thing, what would it be?

I’ve have had infestations in the past. I’ve used BeetleJUS! and crab shell. Either one or both of them helped or I just got lucky. Crab shell supposedly increases one’s soil population of chitin-eating bacteria. Beetle grubs can’t create an exoskeleton if all their chitin gets eaten. Keep grass tall/thick. Mama beetles like to lay their eggs where there isn’t much cover. It helps if your neighbors like to scalp their lawns.

One benefit of this dry spring is that stone fruits do not get very diseased.

I can’t find any predictions about whether the Russia volcanic eruption will have any local weather impact. Is it safe to assume any impact is de minimis? How about a contest/thread regarding when/if ash shows up at DCA?

DP is down to 76 F. Nice to no longer have a DP in the high 70s. Sweat refuses to evaporate on days like today.

Do trends really exist with models? If I get heads 5 times in a row when flipping an honest coin it definitely look/feel like a trend, but it’s a random streak. When I think I’m seeing a storm trend what am I really seeing?

The aipm is predicting FCPS will be closed 1/22 and 1/23.

Would someone please moderate the LR/MR thread? Just start banishing them for 24 hours or something. Heck, I volunteer if you show me how.

New power outages are still occurring in Spotsy (according to My REC outage map). At least 4 in my area just last night.