It has definitely died off a bit. It will likely ebb and flow - HUGE thanks to @WxUSAF - as soon as I saw your picture I went out. Had I been a few minutes slower I likely would have missed that first surge.
Tomorrow night seems like the best shot. Think that by Friday night the storm will have subsided unless more activity erupts. Space weather is so fickle, though.
Let's hope the storm onset and peak holds off until we are well after dark tomorrow evening. Would suck to waste daylight hours on Kp7-9 values.
Another X-class flare. But this one looks (at least preliminarily) to be more impulsive. Probably a lower chance of a CME with this one. But who knows. The existing CME from yesterday is still coming.
Heck...maybe out seasons are shifting a bit. We all have mentioned that winter seems to start later and later but hang on later as well...fitting that hurricane season would follow that pattern.
The weather just likes making a mockery out of us amateur forecasters and such. If I tell my friends 2-4 inches of snow, it will either be nothing or 6+...if I tell them thunderstorms, they'll all miss. Always the same. We have a pretty toxic hobby
Hate to say it...but the radar this morning is giving me June 2006 vibes with the linear and training look. It is POURING here right now. If there's not some dissipation or movement of the firehose - there's going to be issues this morning....
I guess it's worth watching the Caribbean in about a week's time then. Though by tonight at 0z runs it's likely to be 1500 miles away from those runs from last night...if it even exists at all. Snoozefest weather lately (locally)