Kmlwx

Hearing it could be just the tail (or nothing at all!)

And got it with the telescope tonight!

At least on even the warm days the temp can fall pretty fast (unlike during peak sun angle summer). 82 for the high here but already dropped back to 70.

Euro AIFS seems to hint at development down in the Caribbean as well but shunts it out to sea. We'll have to see how any deep digging trough out in that day 13-16 range transpires. If there really IS a strong system coming north out of the Caribbean and a "capture-worthy" trough...they might be in trouble. Long way away, of course. Wake me in 5 or 6 days if it's still showing

It is almost guaranteed to be wrong of course. Though wacky things can happen this time of year I suppose.

Sandy further south.

Late to the party but I finally snapped a shot of the comet.

Awesome weather. Love being able to sleep under blankets without being in a swamp.

Low of 35.6 here. House got down to 63ish inside...not switching to heat just yet.

Watching that western sky. Might be just a touch too bright still.

Latest - Pesky band of clouds has formed just to my north. They might scoot out before primetime though.

Could be far worse...cautiously optimistic. HRRR the past few runs looks solid for a chance.

Clouds may be an issue this evening - seems models have reductions in clouds from NW to SE in the 0z to 3z timeframe. That may not be good enough - but with it being west to east - if the western sky can clear earlier we may still have a shot.

West

Thanks! Sounds like a similar "night mode" setting/exposure that I used for the aurora might work here...providing I can actually locate it tonight. Fingers crossed!

How did it look naked eye? Was that with a few seconds exposure? I think it was behind trees for me last night. Going to try again this evening!

Same. Some high clouds were pesky and in the way Sat/Sun and I just couldn't find it tonight. It's getting dimmer by the day too!

Well...keep in mind almost all of these photos are 1-4 second exposures. Modern smartphones automatically go into "night shot mode" unless you specify otherwise. Naked eye was of course much dimmer than the photos.

100% agree. Plenty of time at/near solar max remains. And it doesn't have to be a Carrington-level event to get us with great auroral activity. Heck...even a series of modest M-flares can have a cumulative effect larger than a single X flare. So many variables! Tough enough with Earth weather forecasting. Solar weather......no thanks on having that as a profession!

Yeah - @SomeguyfromTakomaPark said - it'll likely be limited to G1 to G2 level "storming" tonight. Last night was definitely the show. Now we turn our eyes back to the sun for more activity. The solar disk looks a bit more quiet right now - but that can change in a hurry!

Similar to how we all salivate and wait for a 30+ inch snowstorm...a well timed series of strong flares all with CMEs (the May event I think was a bunch of M-class flares in quick succession) would be a good bet for having a huge storm. It's obviously more complicated (Bz has to be tipped to the south I believe) but the basic building blocks is we want a HUGE CME or better yet a series of them. Often times the first CME will "clear out" space ahead of it leading to the subsequent CMEs (even if weaker) overperforming. It's rare - but if there was ever a time during the sun's 11 year cycle to watch - it's now.

I don't think it's unreasonable to say there could be more solar storms of this magnitude before this solar cycle winds down. It seems like for years all of the sunspots would hurl CMEs on the farside only - our "luck" has changed seemingly. While there hasn't been prolific amounts of high M or X flares - there have been a few very well timed ones.

It definitely surged again the past 15 minutes or so!

I'm shocked at that aspect as well. Would have expected it to be brighter now. Goes to show how space weather is.