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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    The latest SREF graphics on the SPC site have improved from the prior runs. Will be interesting to see if it's just the event getting closer and outliers dropping away - or if it's an actual trend.
  2. Kmlwx
    My thoughts are mostly unchanged so far. I think instability will be a major limiting factor. Euro is still more robust than the GFS in that department it seems (at least the 0z). I didn't look at the 6z Euro yet. Either way - it's probably going to rain and there will be gust pre-frontal winds regardless. I'm not total meh-ing yet but I'm not overly enthused up here. Though like I said for the last event - it's a dynamic system...surprises can happen. And the further we get from the winter season - the higher out chances get for more favorable thermo environment.
  3. Kmlwx
    Still probably a bit too early in our "season." - I'll start paying more attention April 1.
  4. Kmlwx
    LWX in their afternoon discussion is pretty meh on the threat due to meager instability. Can't say I disagree. Socked in with precipitation or clouds is really one of our top ways to fail.
  5. Kmlwx
    The NCAR AI link above seems to be pretty robust for Sunday...FWIW. CSU MLP is less impressive - but the yellow area increased from the really meh runs a day or two ago.
  6. Kmlwx
    The WxWatcher007 blanket might have worked! I added it to my bed last night. More data needed before we can be sure lol
  7. Kmlwx
    Here - https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ
  8. Kmlwx
    All downhill from here for all of us I'm prepared to accept my fate as forum severe-jinx if this blanket leads to the most dud Mid-Atlantic season ever.
  9. Kmlwx
    I'm going to burrito myself inside of it whenever we have a short range severe weather threat. Maybe it will protect against being socked in by clouds/busts.
  10. Kmlwx
    Re: the Sunday severe risk - timing is still shifting around quite a bit...but I could see it being similar to the other day...
  11. Kmlwx
    @WxWatcher007 - I was being SO serious when I said I wanted to turn it into a blanket. It arrived today. Well worth it.
  12. Kmlwx
    CSU MLP looks a lot less favorable for severe than it did over the weekend. Timing seems off potentially. Still way too far out to say anything with confidence.
  13. Kmlwx
    Yeah...way too far out to say anything definitive - but interesting to see a robust signal already on guidance.
  14. Kmlwx
    Unrelated but useful for severe season - does anyone know when the RRFS will be back online after the winter outage?
  15. Kmlwx
    Line of storms over/near you.
  16. Kmlwx
    Mostly expecting that to be the case- though the HRRR sometimes underdoes convection. Wouldn't shock me to see an isolated rumble of thunder mainly west of US-15
  17. Kmlwx
    Already lightning with the cells near Mill Creek. WV.
  18. Kmlwx
    Let's see if this precip can clear out quickly enough to get a 2nd round into the closer-in areas later. For now - way west is still favored.
  19. Kmlwx
    Anne Arundel and PG added to the watch.
  20. Kmlwx
    TIAD radar is seeing some 60-65mph wind just under 2kft. Not sure if much or any of that is mixing down though.
  21. Kmlwx
    These days you could probably say "rain and a little fog" and schools would dismiss.
  22. Kmlwx
    Wow
  23. Kmlwx
    Can't even do gusty showers right, I guess
  24. Kmlwx
    Obs show that our temps and dews are not wildly different from the areas under the MCD. Not saying we have the totally same environment - but it's not like a 10-15 degree difference or anything.
  25. Kmlwx
    57.6 with a 52.2 dewpoint here in Colesville, MD. Doesn't *feel* like severe but still expecting some sort of dynamically forced gusty line...but entirely possible we top out in the 35mph gust range.
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