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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    Any reason that it seems to be more prominent this season than prior ones? Or is that just recency bias?
  2. Kmlwx
    Our vantage point looks super similar - I could probably yell our "SNOWFAN" and you might hear it.
  3. Kmlwx
    It seems like LWX will warn a huge swath and then if an area of considerable or destructive nature shows itself they will put a warning inside of the warning. I can see it from both sides...I think they do it because of the metro corridor honestly.
  4. Kmlwx
    It's interesting because anecdotally we have seen them bring through robust lines only for relative minimums to occur in swaths of our area. But yeah - this has been an interesting season of modeling.
  5. Kmlwx
    The shape of the velocity signature sort of makes me think there's a slight chance of a little kink or enhanced area that may be prone to spin briefly. But certainly not a strong tornado risk or anything - maybe more like a gustnado if that keeps up.
  6. Kmlwx
  7. Kmlwx
    Next segment of the area warned now. can see the profile of the storms looking west from Odenton, MD right now. Looks cool!
  8. Kmlwx
    The LWX specialty warning size lol
  9. Kmlwx
    The timing may be after daytime heating is subsiding - it's possible that instability could become more elevated versus surface based is my assumption.
  10. Kmlwx
    The HRRR which had looked impressive for tomorrow afternoon no longer does with the 12z run - unless you are south of DC.
  11. Kmlwx
    Heck…even June 29, 2012 was one LOL
  12. Kmlwx
    Some of my most memorable severe days started out as SEE TEXT lol. Bring it.
  13. Kmlwx
    I was actually just thinking that this is likely more a factor of the new categorical risk areas/percentages than anything. Especially now that they can go even higher on percentages on wind...30% at day 3 is nothing to sneeze at - but I think it will become a lot more common with these new outlooks. Also no CIG hatching at all.
  14. Kmlwx
    Not fully shocked but that’s pretty robust from SPC at range
  15. Kmlwx
    Quite a bit of initiation happening on the higher terrain to the west.
  16. Kmlwx
    Someone (or a few people) in the next few days - will get microbursted I think. But probably not a region-wide event.
  17. Kmlwx
    HRRR actually has something coming through Central Maryland this afternoon.
  18. Kmlwx
  19. Kmlwx
    @Ian was always overrated - meh. All kidding - missed you, dude!
  20. Kmlwx
    Friday is getting more robust on the CSU MLP page as well - area of 30% showing up.
  21. Kmlwx
    The one thing that can elevate a normally garden variety threat would be if the outflow from storms can really make a robust cold pool that propagates off the terrain and gusts out. I don't think we'll have a solid handle on how the day(s) will play out until each one is on top of us.
  22. Kmlwx
    Total gut feeling (no science involved) but it feels like the stretch of days where a few people get absolutely smoked by a wind damage core or two and the rest of us maybe hear distant thunder or see mostly sunny skies.
  23. Kmlwx
    Day 2 marginal, Day 3 marginal and day 4 15%
  24. Kmlwx
    And yeah a deep trough to our west would be a recipe for potential action for sure!
  25. Kmlwx
    The GFS hinted at some remnant EML advection perhaps on Thursday as well - but we all know that can change with shorter leads.
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