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Kmlwx

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Everything posted by Kmlwx

  1. Kmlwx
    @bncho friendly nudge again. Absorb info - no shame in that! We've all been enthusiastic weather folks. Your post per day average is SKYROCKETING. It's not a race to see who can post the most frequently. Every time I see you post your post count has jumped a ton. Meteorology is such a nuanced science - learned long ago that maps don't tell the full story. Arguing back and forth with long term forum members and/or mets isn't going to gain you much camaraderie on here. We are all excited about the possibility of a snowstorm - posting more times won't "lock it in" or anything. As much as we joke about jinxing things and juju - our weather forum has no impact on real world weather.
  2. Kmlwx
    Are you using p-type maps or soundings? sometimes the p-type maps vary depending on how they are calculated (even from website to website). You need to look at soundings. It might get close if rates are vey low but look above at red tagger posts.
  3. Kmlwx
    Are you using soundings or just p-type maps?
  4. Kmlwx
    A dry slot is sort of a loose term to describe an area that is less hospitable to precipitation.
  5. Kmlwx
    @stormtracker just needs to declare Storm Mode and just put us all out of our misery.
  6. Kmlwx
    It is absolutely too early to be discussing seasonal temp results when astronomical winter started like 11 days ago. And seasonal precip too for that matter.
  7. Kmlwx
    I mean let's just be honest - the "it's been a while" excuse holds true just a tiny bit. We'd have the same issue if we had an incoming storm after seeing 20 inches. I keep trying to stress too that I'm not trying to be "better" than the newbies. But it's totally speaking from PERSONAL EXPERIENCE. It does take some willpower to not post as much - but it pays dividends.
  8. Kmlwx
    Or heck...maybe a minimum character/word count. While it's still possible to s**t post a longer post - it takes more effort. The difference between "Looks tasty" versus "At hour x, the shortwave responsible for our storm looks a bit stronger/better defined. Not sure what that means for the end result with the confluence, however" is night and day. And the second variation there takes almost no additional effort other than some extra keystrokes to type.
  9. Kmlwx
    Maybe...but we can get cold season thunderstorms on the leading edge of a major pattern change as a strong/dynamic front goes through. Seemingly that's more what happened yesterday. Dynamic/strong system ushers in a regime change.
  10. Kmlwx
    Every winter it is the same. We get an influx of users who think post quantity is more important than quality. Just remember - sometimes it's like when the principal at your school knows you...better to NOT be known by the principal as that means you're probably not getting in trouble on the regular. It's OK to lurk and learn. And I'm not saying this as an elitist. Many of us were in your same position long (or not so long) ago. Running up am absurd number of posts in a short amount of time isn't going to garner you any extra camaraderie around here.
  11. Kmlwx
    Pretty soon we're going to have to re-visit the idea of having only designated people parse the model runs/suites
  12. Kmlwx
    @bncho - famous last words! You are running up a fast post count since joining! Not a race Always love when rapid fire posts contrast this much
  13. Kmlwx
    Think favored area for severe will be south of DC and maybe more like South of Manassas. But we'll see.
  14. Kmlwx
    Blizznado warning comes next!
  15. Kmlwx
    Severe thunderstorm warning SW of CHO. Very respectable radar signature with it bowing out seemingly.
  16. Kmlwx
    Perfect way for us to transition from relatively boring weather long term to excitement. Severe weather, then severe cold and winter weather chances!
  17. Kmlwx
    Yeah - gusty showers is kind of what I'm expecting. But maybe something a little more robust. I'm already 2-3 degrees off of my high of the day. Dewpoint is down in the low 40s. Then again - I guess we could say that's not too bad for Dec 31st.
  18. Kmlwx
    HRRR pushes a blob or line through between 4pm and 6/7pm west to east. Let's hope @North Balti Zen lands before it rolls through!
  19. Kmlwx
    HRRR continues to be pretty robust for this evening. I know it tends to be underwhelming in the summer/severe months - not sure if that will still be the case for cold season storm events. But...it's kind of on its own with the FV3 and some of the NSSL models.
  20. Kmlwx
    I'm actually pretty "on board" with today. I mean I'm not predicting tons of lightning for 70mph winds or wedges on the Mall. But I think we'll get some "decent" activity by December standards. We always seem to get one or two cold season events. Usually one is in Nov/Dec and then we get another sometimes in February. That weird tornado/t'storm morning a few Februarys ago was insane.
  21. Kmlwx
    Models seem to suggest you'd be okay - with the turbulent stuff maybe coming in around 5-7 or so. But stuff does tend to pop quicker than expected.
  22. Kmlwx
    The 12z FV3 Hi-Res is pretty darn robust...
  23. Kmlwx
    Feels like it was apparent at H5 fairly early on. No reason to get bummed yet. Plenty of time!
  24. Kmlwx
    I was weenie tagged in the Eastern days for being a severe thunderstorm weenie. Learned my lesson real quick!
  25. Kmlwx
    Better late than never! Thank you!
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